Washington is leaving, the war continues
The situation in Afghanistan, whose people have never been brought to their knees by anyone, continues to escalate.
The armed formations of the Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation) successfully overcome the resistance of government troops. They very sluggishly counteract them, and in some cases simply run away or surrender to the mercy of the winners. According to a significant part of politicians and experts, the capture of Kabul and the entire territory of the country by the Taliban is only a matter of time, and quite soon.
The power of the Taliban was taken away in 2001 by the forces of the international coalition. After 20 years of unsuccessful attempts to introduce democracy in a country living under medieval laws, the United States and its allies are finally withdrawing all their troops from Afghan territory. They believe that now the Afghan authorities must defend their positions themselves and finally suppress the militants.
At the same time, the new seizure of power by the Taliban, who preach a radical Islamist ideology and support international terrorism, poses a serious threat to Russia and all of Afghanistan's neighbors.
THE POSITION OF THE WHITE HOUSE
On July 8, US President Joseph Biden, speaking at the White House, commented on the situation in Afghanistan and explained the reasons for his decision on the final withdrawal of American troops.
The president's position causes great concern both in the United States and abroad.
The situation in Afghanistan, whose people have never been brought to their knees by anyone, continues to escalate.
The armed formations of the Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation) successfully overcome the resistance of government troops. They very sluggishly counteract them, and in some cases simply run away or surrender to the mercy of the winners. According to a significant part of politicians and experts, the capture of Kabul and the entire territory of the country by the Taliban is only a matter of time, and quite soon.
The power of the Taliban was taken away in 2001 by the forces of the international coalition. After 20 years of unsuccessful attempts to introduce democracy in a country living under medieval laws, the United States and its allies are finally withdrawing all their troops from Afghan territory. They believe that now the Afghan authorities must defend their positions themselves and finally suppress the militants.
At the same time, the new seizure of power by the Taliban, who preach a radical Islamist ideology and support international terrorism, poses a serious threat to Russia and all of Afghanistan's neighbors.
THE POSITION OF THE WHITE HOUSE
On July 8, US President Joseph Biden, speaking at the White House, commented on the situation in Afghanistan and explained the reasons for his decision on the final withdrawal of American troops.
The president's position causes great concern both in the United States and abroad.
Biden said that the Afghan people should decide their own fate and be responsible for their future. And that he, Biden, does not want to condemn one more generation of Americans to a twenty-year war. According to the Pentagon, more than 2,400 American soldiers and officers were killed in Afghanistan, and almost 21,000 were injured. And how many fighters continue to live with a disturbed psyche, the military department is silent.
Biden also said that the Afghan military is able to repel the Taliban. And he denied reports that American intelligence predicted the collapse of the government in Kabul in six months and the possibility of a civil war.
Biden announced that the final date for the complete withdrawal of American troops will be August 31. Only about six hundred American troops will remain in the country, who will provide security for the US embassy in Kabul and guard the capital's international airport.
Biden also said that thousands of Afghan interpreters who collaborated with the coalition forces will be provided with safe havens in the United States and other countries. The relevant services are currently working intensively in this direction. However, not all US supporters are ready to leave their country.
On the night of July 2, American servicemen left the Bagram Air Base. And to put it more simply – they just ran away from it under the cover of night. Bagram is a long-standing springboard for the Pentagon's military operations in Afghanistan. During the peak years of the US anti-terrorist operation, there were up to 100 thousand military personnel on the territory of this base. The departure of the last American military puts an end to the longest war in the history of the United States. They left behind more than a thousand vehicles, dozens of armored vehicles and a fully equipped military hospital, one of the best in the country. The Pentagon said that the withdrawal of troops is 95% complete.
Washington agreed to withdraw from Afghanistan after an agreement with the Taliban concluded last year, under Donald Trump. Having occupied the Oval Office, Biden supported this step, not agreeing with the opinion of a number of his generals who intended to maintain a broad US military presence in the country to help the national security forces and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a stronghold of extremist groups.
Biden's April decree on the withdrawal of troops by September 11 (later the date was postponed to August 31) coincided with new major successes of the Taliban in the war against the almost collapsed and demoralized government forces-after peace talks between them broke down again. The commander of US troops in Afghanistan, General Austin Scott Miller, recently said that the country was on the verge of a new civil war. To date, Germany has completed the complete withdrawal of its contingent, the second largest after the American one.
According to representatives of the federal government who have direct access to classified data, the US intelligence services reasonably warned Biden that the Afghan armed forces are very weak, and the probability of the survival of the Kabul government, even in the short term, is almost zero. Although over 20 years, American instructors have trained more than 300,000 Afghan military and security personnel to help them fight the Taliban.
THE PENTAGON'S WORRIES AND TROUBLES
US defense officials are" watching with deep concern " the rapid advance of the Taliban in Afghanistan. And they are calling on their Afghan partners to "step up" and protect their country in the conditions of the withdrawal of American troops, Pentagon press Secretary John Kirby said last Sunday.
When the Taliban announced that they had taken control of 85% of the territory of Afghanistan (which is disputed by many American observers), Kirby told Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace that his department does not ignore the situation in Afghanistan for a second.
"Of course, we are watching with deep concern the deterioration of the security situation and are following the acts of violence, the scale of which is too great," Kirby said. He also stressed that officials are monitoring the movements of the Taliban and working with the Afghan military "to encourage them to use their potential and the capabilities that they have, and we are sure that they know how to protect their country."
Kirby noted that the potential and capabilities of the Afghan Armed Forces include a "very combat-ready" air Force and "very developed" special forces that can prevent the resurgence of the Taliban movement. "Now is the time for them to take a step forward and protect their country."
Even if American troops cannot support the battles of Afghan soldiers on their own land, the United States will continue to help the country and its people. "We will not walk away from our interaction," Kirby said. The United States will continue to support the Afghan troops financially, as well as provide them with supplies and maintenance of aviation equipment.
THE CONFIDENT ONSLAUGHT OF THE TALIBAN
As soon as Biden announced the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, experts in America and in other countries began to assess the possible duration of the current rulers of Kabul in power. One believes that the current government without the military support of Washington will fall in a few months. Others claim that this will happen much faster. Time will show the correctness of one or the other.
The withdrawal of the Americans and their allies from Afghanistan takes place against the background of a very active and successful seizure by the Taliban of territories previously controlled by the government.
The offensive of the militants, as a rule, does not meet resistance from the government security structures.
The Armed Forces of Afghanistan, stationed in various parts of the country, have no motivation to fight the militants, which negatively affects their ability to act in a single formation and suppress the insurgents. If the enemy presses government troops to the border of Tajikistan or Iran, they take refuge in these countries. Surrounded by the Taliban, soldiers and officers go over to their side, hoping that their former sins will be forgiven.
Along with the manpower, the Taliban receives a huge amount of American weapons. Only military aviation continues to provide real resistance to the militants, since the Taliban do not have modern air defense systems. The relative success of the authorities can also be attributed to the battle for the second largest city of the country, Kandahar. He did not give up without a fight only thanks to the reinforcements transferred from the capital.
Against the background of an unstable and collapsing structure of local government, the United States only accelerated its flight from Afghanistan. Trying to absolve himself of responsibility for what is happening, Biden said: "We did not come to Afghanistan to build a state there. It is the exclusive prerogative and responsibility of the Afghan people to determine its future and decide how to govern the country."
To date, as already noted, the leaders of the Taliban claim that they control about 85% of the country's territory. They also declare their readiness to establish normal relations with all interested parties and assure the world community that the movement is not going to go beyond the borders of Afghanistan. Earlier, Tajikistan, concerned about the success of the Taliban, announced a partial mobilization and requested assistance from the CSTO. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a telephone conversation with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, promised to provide military support to Tajikistan in connection with the situation in neighboring Afghanistan. At the same time, it was not about interference in the Afghan events, but about guarantees of Tajikistan's security.
Against the background of the "Islamic State "(banned in the Russian Federation), the" Taliban " looks preferable, since it does not yet declare the idea of creating a World Caliphate and expresses its readiness to respect the state borders of other countries.
TALIBAN VISIT TO MOSCOW
On July 9, the visit of the delegation of the political office of the Taliban movement to Moscow ended. The central day of the talks was Thursday, when they met with the special representative of the Russian President for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov.
The peculiarity of the negotiations with representatives of the Taliban is that the Taliban movement was recognized as a terrorist in Russia by the decision of the Supreme Court in 2003, and its activities are prohibited in Russia. Nevertheless, representatives of the political wing of the Taliban quite often visit Moscow. They came in January of this year, in May 2019 and before that.
Back in 2018, commenting on negotiations with representatives of terrorists, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov drew attention to the fact that Russia has never hidden that it maintains contacts with the Taliban, since they are part of Afghan society. The purpose of the contacts was to encourage the Taliban to negotiate with the Afghan government, the foreign minister noted.
On Friday, the right to negotiate with representatives of terrorists was defended by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov, who said that "contacts are necessary against the background of how the situation in Afghanistan is developing tensely."
The Taliban who came to Moscow represent the political office of the movement, which has been based in Doha, the capital of Qatar, since 2013. It was with his functionaries that the United States negotiated an agreement under which the US military is now completing the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The main backbone of the office is made up of former members of the Taliban government, which ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. The delegation that visited Moscow was headed by Sheikh Mawlawi Shahabuddin Delawar. He was the Taliban ambassador to Islamabad, was in the diplomatic service in Saudi Arabia, was a member of the Supreme Court. In 2001, Delaware was included in the UN Security Council sanctions list.
It is not the first time that Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, one of the founders of the Taliban, who fought with Soviet troops in the late 1980s, came to Moscow. From 2010 to 2018, he was imprisoned in Pakistan, where he was sent after a joint operation of the Pakistani and American special services, but three years ago he was released at the insistence of Washington. During the Taliban rule, it was reported that he held governor's posts. He was also called the Minister of Defense.
The head of the entire movement since 2016, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, a theologian and specialist in Islamic religious law (and not a field commander like his predecessors), was also part of the delegation. One of his deputies, Sirajuddin Haqqani, who heads the terrorist group "Haqqani Network", came with him. It is still difficult to say how the current onslaught of the Taliban on the legitimate authorities of Afghanistan will end.
Vladimir Ivanov
Columnist of the "Independent Military Review"
