The United States is leaving Afghanistan
The other day, my old friend, a colleague from the Israeli special forces unit "Duvdevan" wrote to me and asked: how do I feel about the fact of the planned withdrawal of Americans from Afghanistan?
And I started thinking willy-nilly. At least in order to clearly answer him.
To be honest, after tracking several special operations of the initial period that the American special forces tried to carry out where my friends and I once had a chance to fight, I lost interest in this topic. What they were trying to do did not correlate well with common sense and the logic of planning and executing special operations against the rebels in their own country.
Goals and missions
George W. Bush, a few years after the entry of American troops into Afghanistan, said: "The history of the military conflict in Afghanistan is a story of initial success, followed by many years of failures and final collapse." However, the Americans were prevented from recognizing this by the flow of drug dollars that came from the drug trafficking they revived to Europe.
There is no way to prove the intention of facilitating drug trafficking with facts now. However, if we analyze the dynamics of the decline and growth of opium supplies from Afghanistan, certain conclusions suggest themselves.
In 1999, the Taliban, for religious reasons, issued a decree on reducing opium areas by a third-despite the fact that the yield from poppy cultivation is almost 20 times higher than that of cereals, for example, wheat, and labor costs are much lower. The poppy grows by itself, like a weed.
According to the UNODC, poppy crops have decreased from 83 thousand hectares to two thousand.
In the first year of the arrival of the Americans in Afghanistan, the poppy fields again grew to 30 thousand hectares, and then only continued to grow. And the drug market of Europe was again filled with an Afghan potion. The Americans distanced themselves from the active fight against opium production, saying that the destruction of poppy fields would damage the Afghan economy and turn the country's residents against the United States and local authorities.
At the same time, the Afghan authorities have repeatedly stated that it will not be possible to solve the problem of drug trafficking until the Americans themselves stop profiting from it. And they pointed out the routes of drug transportation by air. Military airports in Afghanistan are controlled by the United States, and US Air Force aircraft are not subject to inspection.
The secret army, dirty money
Not so long ago, Newsweek published the results of a two-year journalistic investigation. It found that the US Department of Defense has created a secret army that has several tens of thousands of people. It is outside the law and at the same time has the most modern types of weapons, military and espionage technologies. Its tasks include performing secret and, obviously, far from the most clean operations around the world, including organizing provocations and creating fake news.
"There is a popular principle in jurisprudence: if you are not caught, you are not a thief. This rule was used by President Obama, who received the Nobel Peace Prize. He refused to open wars. But he began to develop undercover operations. And the most important thing in such methods is that you have a lot of opportunities and zero responsibility. At any moment, you can say that it wasn't us," said former intelligence officer Rainer Wolfgang Rupp.
Perhaps for this reason, representatives of the United States and the Taliban movement signed an agreement on ending the protracted conflict in February 2020. That is, not the Afghan government, but only the Americans. However, it was not fulfilled by May 1.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden promised that the American contingent will begin to leave Afghanistan on May 1, 2021, and by the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, that is, by September 11, the withdrawal procedure will be completed. The NATO allies, who had no military or political goals in Afghanistan before, are also leaving.
Premonition of war
The probability of a civil war in Afghanistan after the Americans leave is very high. Even now, the Taliban are beginning to dictate their terms. They already practically control the south of Afghanistan, their power is absolute in Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan and a number of other provinces. They feel they are the masters of the situation, without reducing the level of violence in almost the entire territory of Afghanistan.
Since the beginning of April 2021, attacks on the facilities of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and security forces have occurred in 16 provinces out of 34. In just one month, from February to March of this year, the number of explosions and targeted attacks increased by 20%. As a result, 305 people were killed and 350 injured.
But, according to sources in the security services of Afghanistan, these figures are greatly underestimated. Daily losses in the structures of the Afghan security forces range from 20 to 30 people. It is not difficult to calculate how long after the Americans leave the country, the resistance of the ANA and the Security Council of Afghanistan will be broken. Security expert Mohammad Shafiq Hamdam points out that the Afghan security forces "are financially and militarily dependent on the United States, and without American support their situation will be difficult."
It is not difficult to guess what will happen in the country, just by looking at what is happening in the south. Even now, girls there go only to primary school. And since the Taliban does not care about the "liberal democratic values" and civil liberties of their co-religionists, it is highly likely that the Afghans who collaborated with the Americans are waiting for big trouble.
"The US has made too many concessions to the Taliban. And the Afghan people will have to pay for it. People are disappointed and feel abandoned by the international community, "Raihana Azad, a member of the Afghan parliament, said in an interview with Deutsche Welle.
Do we need excuses in the struggle for power?
One can, of course, assume that the government of Afghanistan will still enter into peace negotiations with the Taliban movement, as stated in the agreement between the Americans and the Taliban. And the result will be the signing of a nationwide truce and the formation of a government of the country with the inclusion of the Taliban in it. The international community expects that the Taliban will join the political process of resolving the situation in the country. "The group has no excuses left for continuing the war," Assadullah Nadim, a military expert from Kabul, naively believes. However, given the Taliban's strong position, it is unlikely that he will want to share an Afghan den with another bear. And therefore, he will not need excuses in the struggle for power.
The same Islamabad will seek to strengthen the influence of the Taliban and promote them to occupy dominant positions in the future government of Afghanistan, if it is still a coalition. Because the power of the Taliban is beneficial to Pakistan and will help strengthen its position in the region.
However, such a development of events does not guarantee peace in Afghanistan. And, then, all the same, Afghanistan is waiting for a new civil massacre.
From this place
So, if the Taliban comes to sole power in the country, those who collaborated with the" occupiers " will have to run away. Where to? Some countries, in particular Germany, declare their readiness to accept refugees, but not all of them.
Thus, German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said that Germany is ready to accept Afghans who cooperated with the Bundeswehr mission. There is already a procedure and experience of receiving Afghan mission employees who need asylum there. Since 2013, 781 people have moved to Germany.
However, this is still only Germany. Where will the rest of the collaborators go? It is possible that to Central Asia as well. And here, despite the forecasts of some experts who are afraid of the export of Islamism, one should rather fear something else. The arrivals, as they have already been called in the West, are "the most educated, active and ambitious part of the Afghan society that has just begun its development." In other words, pro-American Afghans.
In Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, this audience can become conduits of liberalism, democracy and other "values" of the Western world with all their charms.
On this resource base, Americans will be able to build structures that contribute to the implementation of "color revolutions" there. It is also an excellent agent base for the services of the American intelligence community.
Of course, it is possible that some part of the Islamists will also get into the region on this wave. But by and large, the Taliban regime will not create a threat to them in Afghanistan – "a crow will not peck out a crow's eye". Therefore, there should not be many of them.
Internal threats
This is what the Russian special services should pay attention to-both when communicating with colleagues from Central Asia, and in our country. After all, the presence of a huge number of migrant workers from the south also creates an environment for recruiting colleagues from the United States or, for example, from Pakistan. It is necessary to work out a set of measures to prevent illegal entry of foreigners into Russia. They say it's not rubber!
And in Russia itself, it is worth taking a closer look at such a process as the spread of Islam in regions that have never been traditional for this religion. We are talking about areas where hydrocarbons of strategic importance for the country are extracted: Tyumen, Ugra, Salekhard with subordinate territories. In these areas, Islam is now accepted not only by Russians, but also by the indigenous inhabitants of the North, who have always professed the religion of their ancestors. It is clear that this is not happening by itself, but as a result of the active work of Islamic emissaries.
And also under the influence of examples of solidarity, mutual assistance and support of national and religious groups. Now every fifth resident of this region is a Muslim. As a result of the thoughtless migration policy, or rather, due to its absence for a long time, many Islamic diasporas from Central Asia and Azerbaijan have formed on the territory of the country.
In Russia, there is no difference what religion someone professes: freedom of conscience!
The other is important. Living in Russia, and even being its citizens, are visitors from neighboring countries loyal enough to our country?
There are strong doubts about this, which are confirmed by the behavior of the Azerbaijani Diaspora during the days of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, when they hung Azerbaijani and Turkish flags on their houses. There is no need to even think about who is for whom. Moreover, these actions were not stopped everywhere.
And the incident of Azerbaijanis with the police on May 28 on the "Siberia" highway in the Moshkovsky district of the Novosibirsk region! During the arrest, young violators belonging to the Azerbaijani diaspora resisted, as a result of which Vekil Abdullayev was accidentally shot by a police officer. The result of this was mass disobedience and the organization of a spontaneous rally by the Azerbaijani diaspora with the demand for the extradition of a policeman who used a service weapon for lynching. Moreover, many of the protesters were armed.
It was reported that the family of the traffic police inspector began to receive threats. They were taken out of the village of Moshkovo, where they lived, and the house was taken under protection. "The guy's relatives and friends began to rebel and specific threats began: we will kill, we will stab. Well done, they are united. As they say: brother for brother. Everyone immediately gets up and comes, " he told the portal NGS.ru the husband of the arrested policeman's sister.
The wife of a police officer Gusev even recorded a video message to President Putin asking for protection. Because at the initial stage, the local authorities showed their weakness and did not stop these armed riots.
Thank God, the chairman of the Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, personally intervened in the case in Moshkov. And the case began to be dealt with within the framework of the country's legislation, and not according to Azerbaijani concepts.
What to do
This is what the authorities should pay the closest attention to. After all, this is a fact of civil disobedience! And this diaspora is a real fifth column in our country. The merger of Afghan emigrants who arrived in Russia from Central Asian countries with such "citizens" may turn out to be a rattling mixture that will explode at the most inopportune moment for Russia. And the place of the explosion can be both the named strategic region and other parts of the country.
And more. I would like to note that the transition of local residents of the named region to non-traditional Islam for them is associated with the lack of a state ideology. The lack of education of young people in the spirit of patriotism. The lack of a sense of security among local residents in front of strangers.
We need a state ideology that will be a cementing composition for the peoples of Russia, uniting them into a single community, which at one time was the Soviet people. Then the whole world can cope with any foreign attempts to destroy our country, tear it apart. Both from the outside and from the inside. H
Sergey Kozlov
Sergey Vladislavovich Kozlov is a military historian.
