Why India is increasingly dissatisfied with Russia

Russia's traditional, decades-old friendship with India has begun to be questioned. Despite the emotional and military-technical ties, New Delhi is increasingly sounding not hopes, but fears in connection with Russia. Why is this happening and what does India's relations with Afghanistan have to do with it?

Russia's foreign policy in the regions of the world is based on a very simple and correct principle: "We want to be friends with everyone who wants to be friends with us, and we do not participate in showdowns within this group of countries, we do not play on the side of one against another."

On the one hand, this principle allows Russia to maintain at least stable and working relations with most countries of the world. Moreover, sometimes play the role of a mediator between the conflicting parties. For example, it just so happens that in the Middle East, Russia is the only power that maintains at least working friendly relations with all the local countries that have quarreled with each other.

On the other hand, this approach has a drawback. It creates a glass ceiling that prevents us from raising relations with a number of influential countries to the level of allies (not to mention some kind of block interaction). For example, with the same India. There is an opinion that "Hindi rus' bhai bhai " ("Indians and Russians are brothers", the slogan of the period of Soviet-Indian friendship) is forever and unconditionally. Russia has no conflicts with India, Moscow and Delhi are both members of the BRICS and promote the idea of a multipolar world.

However, in reality, everything is not so rosy. "Do not pretend that Russian-Indian relations are the same as they were before – they are not even close now," writes Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor at the Metropolitan Indian University. Jawaharlal Nehru. There are several reasons for this – and all of them are just related to the Russian concept of"being friends with everyone".

The Afghan Rift

First of all, Moscow and New Delhi have different approaches to the Afghan issue. If Russia is in favor of stabilizing the situation in Afghanistan on the basis of a balance of interests, then India wants to turn this country into a bumblebee on the back of its enemy's head.

So, the other day a big scandal broke out – the Indian side was not invited to the big conference on Afghanistan held in Moscow on March 18. In addition to intra-Afghan players, the United States, China, Russia and Pakistan participated in the conference. That is, all the most important external interests, except for India (well, Iran, but this does not make it easier for the Indians). And this is despite the fact that "traditionally, India is actively involved in the life of Afghanistan, there is trade, there are investment projects (according to Indian Foreign Minister Venkatesh Varma, his country has allocated $ 3 billion for various projects in all regions of the country – note VIEW), Indian medicine and Indian doctors are popular in the republic," Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, explains to the VIEW newspaper.

The "expanded Troika" consisting of Russia, the United States, China and Pakistan was created on the basis of criteria for the influence of all its participants on both conflicting parties in Afghanistan. India has influence only on one of the parties – and according to this criterion, it was not invited to the consultations in Moscow," Zamir Kabulov, Russia's special representative for Afghanistan, told Russian journalists, noting that India will be invited later.

"One of the parties" is the Afghan government, for which New Delhi is actively drowning. "India has historically maintained good relations with Afghanistan, primarily with the secular regimes in Kabul. This is also due to the fact that India is trying to prevent pro – Pakistani elements from coming to power in Afghanistan, which will give Pakistan strategic depth and untie Islamabad's hands in Kashmir," Alexey Kupriyanov, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, explains to the VZGLYAD newspaper. And by "pro-Pakistan elements" we mean the Taliban. "Pakistan has long been actively financing the Taliban and maintaining relations with them," Nikita Mendkovich recalls.

The Indians want the Pakistanis and their creatures out of the corridors of power in Kabul. India's Ambassador to Russia, Venkatesh Varma, said his country welcomes and supports "all attempts at early and inclusive reconciliation under the leadership of the Afghans, under the control of the Afghans and with the participation of the Afghans." That is, in translation into Russian, with minimal or no participation from Pakistan. For Islamabad, it is important to turn Afghanistan into its reliable, stable rear.

It would seem that Moscow should not care who wins in Kabul-pro-Indian or pro-Pakistani elements. However, some Russian diplomats still seem to perceive the Pakistani position as closer. It is believed that the conditional "Taliban" flag will bring stability to Afghanistan, based on balance and taking into account the interests of all external powers. The Indian one will make Afghanistan an Indo-American asset directed against Pakistan and China, which means that it will not allow us to restore the long – awaited order in the country. And in India, this perception is felt, and the Indian expert community does not like it.

A friend of my enemy

However, despite all the difficulties, the Afghan issue is not the main thorn in the bilateral relations between Russia and India. The main one is Chinese. New Delhi is very concerned about the level of Russian-Chinese relations and sees them as a threat, if not for its present, then for its future.

For example, today Moscow and New Delhi have very close cooperation in the military-industrial complex. As of mid-2020, approximately 60-70% of the country's armed forces were equipped with Russian or Soviet-made weapons. Moscow's flexibility in terms of technology transfer, localization of production facilities or joint production helps to realize the ambitions of the Indian authorities to turn their country into one of the largest exporters of inexpensive and high-quality weapons.

This is a boon – but also a weakness for India. After all, it turns out that India is very dependent on Russia in the field of weapons and defense technologies (recall that the supplier of weapons does not just receive money from the country, but also "puts" all the armed forces on their defense systems). And it depends on the country, which has not only close relations with China, which is hostile to India,but also much higher than the Russian-Indian ones.

For example, the Russian-Indian trade balances in the region of $ 10 billion, and the parties intend to bring it to $ 30 billion by 2025. For comparison, the Russian-Chinese trade turnover has already broken the bar of $ 100 billion. In addition, China does not participate in projects that are considered hostile to Russia or do not correspond to its interests - and India does. For example, in the Quad Quadrilateral informal strategic dialogue (with Australia, the United States and Japan, in which the parties plan to set the rules of the game in the Indo-Pacific region). "It is exclusive, that is, anti – Chinese, and we support the concept of an inclusive region and consistently oppose the formation of military blocs there," explains Alexey Kupriyanov.

It is not surprising that a number of political scientists in India are calling for a cautious assessment of the future of Russian-Indian relations. For example, not to sacrifice for the sake of improving relations with Moscow the much more realistic prospects of deepening cooperation with the United States (which will not balance between India and China).

Talk to you?

This view is by no means marginal in India. "It is quite common in the Westernized part of expert circles. Its bearers form an integral part of the expert community, are very active in the public space, but their influence is not decisive in determining Indian foreign policy. At least for now, " says Alexey Kupriyanov.

"Of course, progress is possible in Russian-Indian relations, but India, trying to be friends with Russia and the United States at the same time, must be realistic about Russia's international priorities," writes Anita Singh, an Indian political scientist who has worked in many Indian and American research centers. "The confrontation between Russia and the West in general (and the United States in particular) forces Moscow to rely more on Beijing. This means that the benefits of India and Russia for each other will decrease over time. Yes, both countries dream of a multipolar world order, but this order cannot be conjured up simply because we want it. The Chinese economy is three times larger than the Russian and Indian combined. Asia itself is already unipolar, and the world is moving towards US-China bipolarity. You can't substitute wishful thinking for reality," agrees Rajesh Rajagopalan.

In this situation, Moscow can only try to find a way to remove Indian concerns. "Russia has no leverage over India. Our interaction is largely based on the sympathies that many representatives of the Indian elite and society have for us from old memory, as well as mutually beneficial military cooperation and an understanding of the commonality of global goals. Therefore, firstly, we need to behave as carefully and respectfully as possible, so as not to harm our image; secondly, we constantly conduct explanatory work, explaining that we are not a junior Chinese partner, and even more so not a vassal, and that relations with India are valuable for us regardless of how our relations with China develop," says Alexey Kupriyanov.

You can start, for example, by inviting India to all future round tables on the settlement in Afghanistan. At least in order not to give rise to unnecessary suspicions among the Indians.

Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Financial University