Following Armenia and Algeria, other countries are also showing interest in the Russian complex
The Russian Defense Ministry responded to the statement of Armenian Prime Minister Nikola Pashinyan that the Iskander missile systems demonstrated low performance in the battles in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to the representative of the ministry, the head of the Armenian government was misled: these systems were not used in the fighting in Karabakh. The Russian military, in turn, has no complaints about the "Iskander" - they have been successfully used in combat operations in Syria more than once. However, the export capabilities of the complex against the background of Pashinyan's statements are of particular interest. According to Izvestia sources familiar with the situation on the arms market, at the end of last year, Iskanders became one of the most attractive offers for foreign buyers. Which countries can buy these systems and who is competing with these missile systems, were analyzed by the military observer of "Izvestia" Anton Lavrov and an expert in the field of arms exports Andrey Frolov.
The first contracts
In Armenia, a Russian-made operational-tactical missile system (OTRK) was first seen at a military parade in September 2016. Presumably, the first division of Iskander-E systems was delivered at the expense of a Russian loan of $200 million.
Algeria became the second foreign buyer of Iskander-E. Reports about the delivery of complexes to the country appeared on local resources in 2017, and it was noted that the contract itself was concluded four years earlier. The volume of deliveries is unknown, probably, we are also talking about at least one division. There is no information about the combat use of the complex by the Algerian army at the moment.
Photo: IZVESTIA/Vitaly Bezrukikh
Image source: iz.ru
It is obvious that the export of OTRK will not be limited to the two above-mentioned countries. It can be assumed that the Iskander-E will be of interest to those countries that are armed with the Tochka and Tochka-M complexes of Soviet design, as well as the necessary funds for the purchase of such a complex and expensive complex. The presence of interest in it from foreign customers in August 2017 was confirmed by the director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation of Russia Dmitry Shugaev, who said that "Russia is considering several applications from foreign partners." Of course, we were not talking about Armenia and Algeria, which had already received their complexes.
Rivals
At the same time, there is a very serious competition in this market. The main rival of the Iskander-E complex from Western proposals is the American MGM-140 ATAMCS, which is actively exported to the US allies. The positions of Israeli manufacturers are also very strong, primarily the LORA offer from IAI. Such a complex, in particular, was purchased by Azerbaijan and used during the war in Karabakh.
The positions of Chinese manufacturers are very strong, first of all, the CASIC SY-400 missile system with BP-12A missiles, which is actually positioned as a direct competitor to the Iskander. A potential competitor of the Russian complex may also be its almost complete analogue, reproduced in the DPRK. The Korean Iskander was first shown at the parade in February 2018, and photos of practical missile launches appeared in May 2019. If the North Korean army is saturated with it, it is quite possible to allow the complex to enter the international market, although due to international sanctions, full-fledged competition on its part is not expected soon.
China's CASIC SY-400 complex with BP-12A missiles
Image Source: Photo: defpost.com
Turkey is also actively working to create its own OTRK. In 2017, it became known about the development by Roketsan of the KHAN export complex (an analog of the Bora OTRK produced). There is also a less advanced J-600T Yıldırım complex in Turkey, which, under certain conditions, can also occupy its niche in the market and compete with our system.
Finally, the new long-range MLRS are increasingly serious competitors to the OTRK as a whole. The most prominent representative of this "new wave" was the Chinese A200 complex, which was well received by the market. In the version of the B-200 "Polonaise", it is produced in Belarus and is in service with the army of this country, and was also exported to Azerbaijan.
Potential buyers
We can try to guess which countries are included in the list of those interested in the Iskander-E RTRC. In the CIS, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan can buy it. Among the non-CIS countries, the most likely candidates may be Vietnam, Iran and Syria (after the normalization of the international situation around the latter two countries). It is also impossible to exclude the purchase of this complex by the oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf, primarily Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Photo: IZVESTIA/Mikhail Tereshchenko
Image source: iz.ru
Several factors can be attributed to the advantages of Iskander. This is the presence of several types of missiles, which in the export version can be offered to the customer. In addition, the complex has been mass-produced for many years, which has a positive effect on its price and cost of maintenance. Finally, the Iskander has experience of real combat use, and the results of launches in some cases could be evaluated even by the general public. All this, of course, has a positive impact on its promotion in the global arms market.
Modern RTRS are sophisticated weapons. Their effective use requires the coordinated work of dozens of officers and the entire military machine as a whole.
To hit a stationary target, you need to know its exact coordinates. Moreover, publicly available GPS satellite data will not work here. When using optical-guided missiles on the final section of the trajectory, it is also necessary to upload high-quality and up-to-date images of the terrain taken from the air or from space in advance.
Photo: IZVESTIA/Mikhail Tereshchenko
Image source: iz.ru
The task of shooting at clusters of military equipment or artillery positions is even more difficult. The entire cycle from target detection to missile launch should take not even hours, but minutes. Otherwise, the missiles of any complex will fall already on the empty positions from which the enemy left.
In Russia, rocket scientists regularly train together with the calculations of the Orlan-10 and Outpost drones, which determine the position of targets and monitor the results of strikes. At the same time, communication with them is conducted in real time through secure channels. And the classes themselves with practical and electronic launches are held constantly.
Only when properly used by prepared calculations, the OTRK becomes an extremely powerful weapon, the sniper strike of which is almost impossible to repel with existing air defense systems.
Anton Lavrov
