On November 25, the fifth Russian-Pakistani exercise "Druzhba-2020" was completed, in which a special forces company took part from each of the parties. The fact of the development of relations with Pakistan is positive in itself, writes the Deputy Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and TechnologiesKonstantin Makienko in an article for the newspaper "Vedomosti".
The Russian-Pakistani exercise "Druzhba-2020", which ended on November 25, was the fifth in a row (c) Ministry of Defense of Russia
We are dominated by the idea of Pakistan as an unstable state-a sponsor and harborer of terrorists, a blood enemy of Russia's friendly India, an ally of our opponents in the Afghan war. This view is partly correct. But it is largely obsolete, as it was formed under the influence of the very Afghan war that ended 30 years ago. In addition, Moscow still looks at Pakistan not so much with its own eyes as with Indian ones.
With all the justice of the perception of Pakistan as not the most prosperous country on the planet, you need to understand that this is a state in which one way or another there is a change of power, there is political competition and the separation of power branches works. The Pakistani military, which has taken power more than once in the country's history, has consistently ceded the reins to civilian governments. as for stability, pakistan, whose existence at the time of its creation did not seem at all guaranteed, has been on the world map for more than 70 years. this is more than the soviet union existed, which turned out to be, in fact, a very ephemeral historical entity, less resistant and more artificial than the same pakistan or israel. Pakistan today already surpasses Russia in population by 70 million people (almost 220 million Pakistanis against 146 million Russians). The volume of Pakistan's economy by purchasing power parity is more than three times lower than in Russia, but if the trend in the economic dynamics of the countries will continue, perhaps one day economic potential will be comparable. In general, Pakistan is not a country that should be ignored, and developing relations with Islamabad is the right decision.
But is it worth developing these relations in the military sphere? Russia receives no practical benefit from such purely symbolic teachings, but only leads to a natural irritation of India. By the way, if it makes sense to increase military cooperation, it is with the Indian Air Force and Navy, which take part in various maneuvers with the best fleets and air forces in the world and communication with which can bring (and brings) multibillion-dollar contracts.
But one does not exclude the other, a possible Russia - Pakistan alliance is a very promising line. And, on the contrary, Moscow's principled policy of curbing (or even curtailing) military-technical cooperation with Islamabad, adopted for two reasons, seems completely illogical. First, it is a diplomatic fear of inconveniencing vulnerable Indian partners, who are supposed to be our "strategic partners". Secondly, it is a misconception about Pakistan as an insolvent country.
pakistan pays
the idea of pakistan's low solvency stems from the fact that it is a poor country, but the concepts of "poor" and" insolvent " are completely wrong to identify. After all, most of the buyers of Russian weapons, including the largest, India, are not among the richest countries in the world. the paradox is that poor countries are often much more disciplined in their payments - and much more interested in purchasing military products.
Real solvency in the field of arms imports is determined by the scale of the economy, the ability of the country's political system to concentrate resources on the tasks of military modernization, as well as access to foreign financial resources and assistance. pakistan is a large country, its economy surpasses the economies of such traditional buyers of russian weapons as algeria and vietnam, and is comparable in gdp to egypt. in addition, for the purchase of weapons, pakistan periodically gets access to external resources coming from the rich oil monarchies of the persian gulf. Finally, the special position of the military in the political system of Pakistan guarantees the priority of military spending, including on the purchase of weapons.
to assess the real purchasing power of pakistan, you can pay attention to some pakistani contracts. So, in Turkey, 30 T-129 helicopters were ordered in the amount of $ 1.6 billion. China has contracted eight submarines worth $5 billion. At least part of this money could be received by Russia. Moreover, by refusing Pakistani orders, Russia is not just losing money. it gives them to its commercial and even military-political competitors-china and turkey. At the same time, unlike endless Indian tenders, some of which last not even years, but decades, Pakistani negotiators prepare contracts in just a few months.
India does without Russia
The most weighty argument against the development of military-technical cooperation (MTC) with Pakistan until recently was taking into account the military-political interests of India. However, in India, the process of diversifying the sources of weapons is increasingly developing. Moreover, this process has reached such a depth that we can already talk about the loss of Russia's strategic partnership with this country.
by itself, the term "strategic partnership" is used so often that it seems to no longer carry any real meaning. But in the case of India, you need to have the courage to admit to yourself that the strategic partner of New Delhi for ten years is not Moscow, but Washington. In fact, we are currently talking about the need to emancipate Russia in the face of Indian pressure and achieve an equal status with other Indian partners in the military-technical cooperation. Exclusive consideration of the military and political interests of India was possible as long as India took into account the commercial interests of Russia as exclusively.
However, all this does not mean that Moscow should not take into account Indian interests at all. On the contrary, Russia should carefully and delicately monitor the observance of the current military balance between India and Pakistan. For example, you can limit yourself to offering Pakistan only those weapons systems that the Indian military refused to purchase, considering them not good enough for the armed forces of their country. These can be MiG-35 fighters, Mi-28 combat helicopters of various modifications, and short-range anti-aircraft systems.
Russia has the courage to firmly defend its interests before the United States and other Western countries. And at the same time, they are not able to resist the skillful Indian pressure. Meanwhile, in the context of sanctions pressure, the search for new partners is becoming more and more urgent, and Pakistan could become one of such clients of the Russian defense industry.