Resting on the laurels of the winner, Ilham Aliyev sharply criticized the OSCE Minsk group for its inability to resolve the Karabakh conflict. The Azerbaijani leader told representatives of Paris and Washington that he did not invite them to visit Baku, although he did hold a meeting with them. Who is behind Aliyev's harsh statements and why is Azerbaijan not afraid to spoil relations with the United States and France?
On Saturday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, receiving the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, said that he did not invite them to Baku. "Coming here was your idea. I can say it again in front of the cameras. I did not invite the Minsk group to visit," Aliyev said during a meeting with the group's co-chairs from the United States and France, Andrew Schofer and Stefan Visconti, as well as Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Mikhail Bocharnikov and representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-office Andrzej Kasprzyk.
Aliyev added that he was "not against" the visit when he learned that " the Minsk group wants to come." According to him, "the Minsk group came up with ideas and tried to act creatively," but "it did not give any result."
The Azerbaijani President also said that the settlement of the Karabakh conflict has changed the situation in the region, " Azerbaijan has settled the conflict that lasted for about 30 years, and achieved this by force and political means." He stressed that "Armenia was forced to sign the act of surrender", and Yerevan "would never have signed it voluntarily".
"We forced them, not the Minsk group! We and President Putin. This is reality. If it were not for the intervention and efforts of President Putin, the situation would probably be different today, " the Azerbaijani President said. - Pashinyan said that "Karabakh is Armenia". He made a mistake and got the punishment he deserved. He deserves this humiliation."
As representatives of the United States and France said in response, they understand that a new situation has now developed. They promised to convey Aliyev's position to their governments. Expressing gratitude for the opportunity to meet the Minsk group co-chairs with the head of Azerbaijan, Russian Ambassador Mikhail Bocharnikov noted that Russia, as a party to the trilateral agreement, attaches special importance to its implementation.
Aliyev's meeting with representatives of the OSCE Minsk group was accompanied by an unexpected violation of the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh. On Saturday, the Ministry of defense of Armenia reported that Azerbaijan resumed offensive actions in the South of Karabakh in the direction of the villages of Khin Taglar and Khtsaberd. Then Russia and Armenia discussed the incident at the level of defense Ministers, and Baku announced a forced "anti-terrorist operation" in the forests of Nagorno-Karabakh, as a result of which four people were killed.
According to Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian international Affairs Council, Aliyev's harsh tone towards Western diplomats and readiness for military escalation in Karabakh are due to the "winner factor". "from the position of the winner, it is always easier to conduct any negotiations. Therefore, Aliyev can afford what Pashinyan cannot afford, " the political scientist is convinced.
"Aliyev's irritation with Paris and Washington is understandable. The French Senate recently passed a resolution recognizing Karabakh, and the us still has a strong Armenian lobby. Aliyev does not consider these parties to be unbiased and objective participants in the Minsk group. Yes, Baku once hoped that the OSCE group would be able to resolve the conflict, but their efforts did not bring results. The only exception was Russia, which has always made more effort to do this. Here you can recall the Kazan formula for settlement, and the Madrid principles, which were developed with the active participation of Moscow, " the source explained.
"It is also necessary to take into account the factor of Turkey. Now, as we know, Paris and Washington have very difficult relations with Ankara. Moreover, these difficulties relate not only to the problems of Karabakh, but also to the supply of Russian S-400 systems to the Turks, issues of gas transit and production, illegal migration and religion. It seems that not seeing any threats for himself, Aliyev considered it necessary to demonstrate solidarity with Erdogan, who is now actively fighting with the West," Kortunov suggested.
A similar point of view is shared by the expert of the Valdai club, Professor of St. Petersburg state University Stanislav Tkachenko. "First, it is absolutely true that Turkey is a key partner of Azerbaijan for the next few years, maybe decades. Therefore, Aliyev said about what Erdogan wanted to hear from him, " Tkachenko believes.
"And secondly, Aliyev outlined the real situation. The President of Azerbaijan believes that no other country has influence on the Karabakh conflict outside of Russia and Turkey. However, previous attempts to interfere with France and the United States had only negative consequences. In contrast, only Russia provided a diplomatic solution to the conflict, while Turkey helped with military force, " the source explained.
"In the end, I think Aliyev positively assessed the effectiveness of Erdogan's diplomatic style and decided that it would not hurt for Azerbaijan to borrow it and partially use it in conversations with representatives of the West," Tkachenko stated.
At the same time, such a policy of Baku carries risks for Russia, experts are convinced.
"In the future, there are possible options in which the territory of Azerbaijan will become a springboard for Turkish expansion into the regions of Central Asia, the North Caucasus and the Volga region. There are grounds for such concerns, although Moscow continues to call Erdogan a responsible and reliable partner at the official level," Kortunov said.
"In addition to the above-mentioned problems, there are issues of military-technical cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine, conflicts in Syria and Libya, and conflicting positions on the Eastern part of the Mediterranean. We have a complex relationship that can be described as a mixture of cooperation with elements of competition and, in some ways, even confrontation. We should not forget about this, " the political scientist urges.
"In this situation, the main task of Russia in relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey is to achieve a political settlement of the conflict in Karabakh. It is important for us not to dwell on what has already been achieved – I mean the ceasefire. If we do not move forward in solving political problems, our peacekeepers may be witnesses or victims of another military escalation. Therefore, Russian diplomats must now build on the success that was achieved thanks to our peacekeepers, " Kortunov concluded.
Alexey Nechaev
