Diplomacy and hostility in the middle East
Two monarchical States, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, bordered by the Persian Gulf, have signed historic agreements to normalize relations with the Jewish state. Abu Dhabi is opening an Embassy in Israel, and Manama, which is signed under the "agreement of intent", will exchange diplomatic missions with Israel, apparently later. Five or seven other Arab countries are expected to normalize relations with Jews in the near future. So far, only three countries have been named: Oman, Sudan, and Mauritania. A number of experts consider hints about Saudi Arabia, which may take such a step, to be unrealistic so far.
The long road between " no " and " Yes»
In principle, we are talking about geographically distant Arab countries in relation to Israel. Two neighboring countries, Egypt and Jordan, signed peace treaties with the Jews in 1979 and 1994. The decision of Egypt, the largest and most militarily powerful Arab country, was particularly important. The Egyptians were the first to denounce the "three no's" principle proclaimed in the 1967 Khartoum Declaration:" no "to peace with Israel," no "to recognition of Israel, and" no " to negotiations with Israel. President Anwar Sadat, the first Arab leader to recognize the Jewish state, paid for his courage with his life.
But in 1979 and 1994, the establishment of relations between Israelis and Egyptians and Jordanians had only a small impact on trade, tourism, and cultural exchange. Only a deal to supply natural gas to Israel can serve as an undoubted achievement in relations with Egypt, because at that time the gas reserves in the territorial waters of the Jewish state were not explored. Today, the development of high technologies has changed the nature of the economy and turned into a powerful diplomatic and military potential.
David Rosenberg in the article "This is why the UAE and Bahrain made their ties with Israel clear", published in the left-liberal newspaper Ha-Arets, writes: "Israel's status as a technological power, far exceeding its weight in terms of conventional economic indicators such as GDP and population, has allowed the Jewish state to strengthen ties with emerging powers such as China and India, and older economic leaders such as Japan and South Korea. Now it's starting to work in the middle East." According to Rosenberg, the normalization of relations between the UAE and Bahrain with Jews is based on the considerable hopes of the Arab States rich in natural resources to rebuild their economies from oil and gas exports and tourism to high technologies owned by Israel.
The UAE is an oligarchic monarchical coalition, with power held by the heads of seven Sunni tribes. The administrative structure of this state is based on the right of each Emirate to independently dispose of mineral reserves on its territory. The Emirate of Abu Dhabi became the leader of this kind of Federation, and the city of the same name became the capital. The Emir of Abu Dhabi holds the presidency of the UAE, and the Emir of Dubai becomes Prime Minister.
Halfway to the moon and Mars
Today, the UAE boasts the world's tallest building, the largest artificial island, the largest shopping center, including an indoor ski resort and a penguin colony. But few people know that the UAE is planning to build a fully functioning city for 600 thousand people in the next century... on Mars. This was written a few years ago in the Jerusalem Post by Dubai journalist Ann Simmons. His article, without any flourishes, was titled: "next stop – Mars?". Even more remarkable subtitle sounds like a challenge to time and the whole world: "The UAE in many aspects was "ahead of the whole planet", and the Earth has already become too small for them." Simmons quotes Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, now 71-year-old Vice President and Prime Minister, who tweeted: "In this century, we strive to promote science and technology and instill a thirst for knowledge in our young people. This is why we are announcing our Mars 2117 project, which is our vision for the future."
The UAE space center has announced plans for an Arab expedition to the moon in 2024. Landing on a satellite of our planet is only part of a strategic ten-year space project. Of course, it is better not to start implementing such plans without high technologies. "Like China and India," notes David Rosenberg, " the Emirates are not just ready to make deals with Israeli technology companies. They want to be influenced by the magic of the "startup nation" to develop their own technology sector."
It is noteworthy that in the UAE, the country's dominant religion – Islam - does not discriminate against other religions. Expert of the Israeli newspaper "Maariv" Jackie Hugi in the article "Mosque, prison and... disco" notes that " in every Emirate you can find Christian churches. Ten years ago, even an Orthodox temple complex was erected here. There are also Hindu and Sikh religious centers. And the Muslims themselves observe their customs quite gently, including in clothing, largely following the European business style."
In an interview with the President of the UAE Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed said: "we Have mosques and discos". Then he added: "There are prisons, too." A small synagogue for foreigners of the Jewish faith (mostly American specialists) has opened in Dubai. The same building also has a kosher kitchen and several bedrooms for guests who observe Shabbat and do not have time to return home before the beginning of Saturday.
Away from Iran, closer to Israel
The Palestinian Arabs, forgetting about their differences and frequent bloody showdowns, unanimously declared the betrayal of the UAE and Bahrain regimes "to eliminate the Zionist entity." The media, which is openly hostile to Jews, claim that Muslim States that are ready to make peace with Israel expect handouts from the Americans in the form of the latest weapons, and from the Jews – innovative technologies.
In fact, handouts are out of the question, because the Americans and Israelis will demand money for weapons and equipment described as an innovative breakthrough. And considerable. Moreover, the Israeli leadership is not at all happy with Washington's plans to sell the latest f-35 stealth fighters to the Emirates by the end of the year.
In this case, the political gain may turn out to be a military loss. If the F-35 ends up on military bases of the Emirati army, then the Pentagon's guaranteed "qualitative military superiority" of Israel in the Middle East region will inevitably be greatly shaken.
Of course, a diplomatic breakthrough is important for the Jewish state. But not at the expense of increasing the military power of States whose friendliness has not been tested by time. Morocco is an example. In 1994, the Kingdom and Israel established diplomatic relations. Morocco broke off relations with the Jewish state due to the beginning of the Second Palestinian intifada ("uprising").
It is no secret that the Sunni Arab world fears above all the aggressiveness of Shiite Iran and its satellites. That is why the newspaper "Ha-Arets" quite rightly writes in its editorial: "If all those who had a hand in concluding peace agreements between Israel and the Gulf countries were invited to the signing ceremony held on September 15 at the White house, then the place of honor would be occupied by the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, whose hegemonic aspirations pushed the Gulf countries to come closer to Israel."
For the Jewish state, any kind of Alliance with the UAE and Bahrain is not only of political significance. The Emirates has never participated in any military conflict or encountered Israeli forces. On the contrary, the two countries have been secretly cooperating in the military, defense and intelligence spheres for many years, jointly opposing the Iranian nuclear program.
The emirs can't muster a host, but they can't do without a guard
You should immediately make an explanation. The duties of the guard of Arab emirs include not only the protection of the ruler and members of his family. The Emir's guards cannot be considered only guards or guards, which also perform ceremonial functions. This is an elite part of the army, which can include various types of troops. Interestingly, in Saddam's Iraq, along with the Republican guard, which included several brigades of different types of troops, there was also a Special Republican guard created exclusively to protect the country's leader.
To a certain extent, the emirs ' guard (as well as the former Republican guard of Iraq) is similar to the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps in Iran, which is far superior in organization, training of personnel and, of course, weapons to the regular army of their countries. But the information about the Arab guards is classified and it is difficult to say anything specific about them.
At the same time, the armies of small Arab States, such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, can also not be discounted. They are well equipped (although in most cases weapons are not the latest models) and trained. In the UAE, compulsory service for conscripts who have a high school graduation certificate lasts nine months, for men who do not have such a document – two years. Women can also serve in the army as volunteers for nine months.
The high level of prosperity of the countries of the region allows them to buy the most modern weapons. Photo Pixabay
The Arsenal of the Emirati army includes tanks and armored vehicles of French, British, German, Chinese, Belgian, canadian, Turkish and South African production. The ground forces are armed with the 9k58 Smerch, a Soviet 300 mm multiple rocket launcher system – This system was not replaced by the Tornado family of MLRS, in which combat vehicles are equipped with a GLONASS navigation system and a new computerized fire control system. The Emirate of Dubai has acquired a short-range SS-1 Scud-2 ballistic missile manufactured by the USSR. Saddam Hussein ordered the bombardment of tel Aviv with this class of missiles during the 1990 Gulf war.
The UAE forms seven Emirates, but only Abu Dhabi and Dubai have air forces. According to local law, only Emirati citizens can enroll in the flight crew, while foreigners are only allowed to serve in service teams. In 1999, the two Emirates United combat aviation, but the principle of autonomy remained. Abu Dhabi became the location of the Western command, and Dubai – the Central command.
The military and political leadership of the Emirates considers the development of naval forces a priority of its defense doctrine. In recent years, the UAE Navy has increased its capacity with Abu Dhabi-class corvettes built in Italian shipyards and six French-made Baynouna-class ships. Ships of this class are distinguished by their power and versatility. It is emphasized that at the request of the UAE, suppliers create their special modifications.
Under the dubious auspices of the United States
The island location of Bahrain, the smallest Arab state, also forced its military and political leadership to pay special attention to the development of the Navy. The components of these forces are frigates, missile and amphibious boats of American and German production. Modern patrol boats, without which it is impossible to defend the country on more than three dozen Islands, are built in Turkey.
The Bahraini army has armored, artillery, and mechanized brigades, artillery and reconnaissance battalions, a special purpose battalion, a mixed anti-aircraft division (two SAMS and one artillery battery), and the Emir's guard. The ground forces are equipped mainly with American equipment of outdated modifications. The French and British supplied light armored vehicles to the Bahrainis. In the middle of the last decade, Manama purchased about a hundred armored vehicles from Turkey.
The Bahraini air force is represented by three fighter squadrons, training aircraft and a significant fleet of combat helicopters. There is no information about the presence of military transport aircraft in Manama.
The Kingdom considers itself protected by four American bases located on its territory. The main one is located in Manama, and the supply base is located on the island of al-Muharraq. Bahrain, where the Fifth fleet of the US Navy is based, hosts about three thousand American troops on its territory. The presence of foreign troops irritates local citizens and weakens popular support for the regime.
In addition, American bases did not save the government from falling when the revolutionary events began. South Vietnam is an example. The Saigon regime fell on April 30, 1975, despite the powerful military base that the Americans established in da Nang. Here you can quote the words of the last South Vietnamese President Nguyen van Thieu, to whom the overseas superpower promised full support: "but the Americans did not keep their word. Can we rely on the American word these days?"
The unreliable United States is across the ocean, on the other side of the world, and Israel is nearby, in the middle East. And if the Tehran ayatollahs decide to commit aggression against the UAE and Bahrain, Abu Dhabi and Manama have no doubt that" almost friendly " Israel will come to their aid.
In 2016, then-us President Barack Obama put forward a thesis about the "thousand-year history of conflicts in the middle East". At the same time, he spoke about the need to complete the stay of American military units in the "boiling point of the planet". After all, even the complete defeat of Saddam's Iraq in 2003 did not lead to the pacification of Iraq. On the contrary, the former Iraqi army, which was not even properly disarmed, formed the backbone of the powerful terrorist organization "Islamic state", banned in Russia and in many other countries of the world.
Saudi Arabia (SA) stepped up its relations with Israel at the beginning of the new Millennium. But it did not come to the opening of embassies. In Riyadh, they prefer secret relations with the Jewish state, because they consider themselves the banner of the Islamic world and leave all doors open for the Kingdom.
Recently, it became known that the Saudis purchased phone hacking technology from an Israeli company. It is clear that information about the majority of purchases of Israeli cyber technologies by Arab countries is not leaked to the media.
Who is to blame?
King Salman bin Abdulaziz of SA, speaking in a video conference at the UN General Assembly in September this year, attacked Iran. He said the ayatollahs ' regime used the 2015 agreements on the fate of Tehran's nuclear program to step up its expansionist policies and expand its terrorist network. "Iran is sowing chaos, extremism and religious strife," the Saudi monarch said. He demanded that Hezbollah be disarmed as a fighting force of the Tehran ayatollahs operating in Lebanon, Syria and several other countries.
And specific events were not long in coming. On Monday, September 28, the SA authorities announced the disclosure of a terrorist group associated with the Iranian Islamic revolutionary guard Corps. According to the Kingdom's state security Department, three of the ten arrested militants were trained in Iran. The course included working with explosives, making explosive devices, as well as tactical and combat training.
Donald trump has linked the withdrawal of us troops from the region to a change in the Arab world's attitude towards Israel as a hostile state. "As more Arab countries normalize relations with Israel, which we believe will happen very quickly, the region will become more stable, secure and prosperous," the American President said. In other words, overseas, they hope that significant contingents of American soldiers will not be represented in the middle East when the degree of confrontation between Arabs and Jews decreases. However, until the Saudis open a diplomatic mission in tel Aviv (Jerusalem is unlikely to be discussed here), and the Israelis - in Riyadh, it is doubtful that the" waiting list " of Arab States that have recognized the Jewish state will have many names.
For example, Kuwait and Yemen will not turn their backs on Israel if both countries are still strictly ordered to come not only to Israelis, but also to citizens of any countries that have ever visited the Jewish state. Kuwait boycotts Israeli goods. However, in August 2020, the Kuwaiti Ambassador to Ukraine Rashid Hemed al-Advani visited the grave of the Jewish Rabbi Nachman from Breslau in Uman, and also held an interfaith meeting with other rabbis. But it is highly doubtful that this actually private visit will have any impact on the inter-state Kuwaiti-Israeli relations.
Algeria has never recognized Israel and categorically prohibits its citizens from visiting it. In 1967, during the six-day war, Algeria sent a symbolic battalion to fight on the side of the Arab countries that attacked the Jewish state. Tunisia maintains limited relations with Israel, and it does not seem that there is any development in them.
Unlike most countries in the region, Oman has never been involved in armed conflicts between Arab States and Israel. Of course, overseas pressure is worth a lot in our coronavirus era. The United States and Israel have much to offer Oman, Mauritania, and the Sudan.
There are many knots in the great middle East knot. It's not just Arabs and Jews who are fighting each other. The Turks have not been able to deal with the Kurds for decades and at the same time claim the territories of the border regions of Syria. The Iranian ayatollahs also have long-standing problems with the Kurdish ethnic group, but at the same time they have to monitor the Iraqi Shiites and ruthlessly crush Azerbaijani, Kurdish, Arab and Baloch separatism. The Saudis and other Sunni Arab monarchies fear the expansion of Shiite Iran. And then there's President Erdogan openly looking for a conflict with Greece. If Ankara enters into a conflict with Athens today,it will not be able to avoid a war with Greek Cyprus. But the Israeli-Arab confrontation occupies a special place in the entire middle East issue.
The notorious British intelligence officer Lawrence of Arabia, who for seven years during the First world war fought in the ranks of the Arab tribes that rebelled against the Turks, wrote in his memoirs: "United Arab people? Myth. This nation exists in theory. In fact, there are hundreds of clans and hamuls, historical strife and enmity, and only one thing the Arabs have in common: unbridled fantasies and an inability to admit their mistakes. They always need a scapegoat."
Israel became such a scapegoat immediately after its re-creation in 1948. Secretary General of the Executive Committee of the Palestine liberation Organization Saeb Erekat in an interview with the Maariv newspaper columnist Jackie Hugi bluntly said: "Even if mother Teresa was in the chair of the Palestinian authority, Thomas Jefferson was at the head of the government, and Montesquieu or Voltaire was at the head of the Parliament, they would also say that they do not have a partner."
To accept the existence of Israel, to lose their scapegoat for many Arabs, also means the loss of their ephemerally United world. And the Palestinian problem does not play a special role here.
Jerusalem
Zakhar Gelman
Zakhar Gelman is an independent journalist.
