Armenia rejoices – one of the leading Western powers has made an important political decision to support Nagorno-Karabakh (NKR). The French Senate voted to recognize the independence of the NKR. However, why did Azerbaijan call this document "an empty piece of paper"? Why doesn't Emmanuel macron speak out on this? And, finally, why does this decision also have anti-Russian overtones?
What is the main charm of today's international relations? In their unpredictability. The world has become so small and interconnected that global processes are affected by a huge number of different variables. And sometimes under their influence, very bizarre phenomena are formed.
One of them is the resolution on recognizing the independence of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), adopted by the upper house of the French Parliament.
Piece of paper
On November 25, the French Senate, by 305 votes out of 306 present, supported a resolution calling on the government to actively intervene in the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Provide humanitarian assistance to local residents, protect them through the deployment of "international forces", investigate war crimes and identify Turkey's role in them, and get Ankara to respond through EU institutions (translated into Russian – accept sanctions). Finally, " recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and make this recognition an instrument of negotiations for the establishment of a lasting peace."
In Baku, this decision was called "an empty piece of paper". In Yerevan, it was a historic decision. In fact, it turns out that the decision at the moment is really an empty piece of paper, and largely due to the fault of Yerevan itself.
Throughout the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian Prime Minister pleaded with foreign States to recognize the NKR, and the Armenian media published news about the recognition of Karabakh by local authorities and city assemblies of various countries – but Yerevan itself did not recognize this territory as an independent state. This approach of Yerevan towards Nagorno-Karabakh, as Vladimir Putin correctly noted, "significantly influenced all the events taking place there", and also seriously hindered the recognition process in other States. After all, if Armenia itself did not recognize it, why should someone else?
So the French foreign Ministry seems to have taken this position. "France's unilateral recognition of the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh would not benefit anyone. This is not in the interests of Armenia, Nagorno – Karabakh, France, the European partners, or the Minsk group co-chairs," said Jean-Baptiste Lemoine, a representative of the countries ' foreign Ministry.
Asymmetric impact
However, the Elysee Palace itself has not yet expressed its position. In fact, French President Emmanuel macron took a MKhAT pause. As a result, it may well either accept the will of the Senate, or continue its silence, threatening recognition at any time. And it's not a matter of special love for the Armenians – it's in the interests of France.
First, the interest in Armenian money. Paris does not need a poor Armenia, but the rich representatives of the Diaspora are listened to there. There are almost 600,000 ethnic Armenians living in France, and they are not some suburban hoodlums, but businessmen, intellectuals, and citizens. In fact, it is the second most influential Armenian Diaspora after the American one. It is always useful and profitable to serve her.
Yes, it would seem that by flattering the French of Armenian origin, Emmanuel macron alienates Turkish voters (of whom there are between 600 and 800 thousand in the Fifth Republic). However, these people are much less influential. In addition, they are no longer voters of the current President – the absolute majority of them are loyal to the Sultan of Turkey Recep Erdogan, with whom Macron has a big conflict.
And this conflict is the second reason why the French demonstrate their readiness to recognize Karabakh. The fact is that Paris sees Ankara as almost an existential threat, not only to Europe as a whole, but also to France itself directly. It is Erdogan who is considered by many to be both the mastermind of the terrorist attacks that took place in the Republic, and the sponsor of the strengthening of Islamic radicalism there.
Almost half of the imams who came to France from other countries are Turks. Ankara controls one in seven French mosques. But at the same time, Paris cannot openly oppose Erdogan – Washington and Berlin will not approve of a fight within NATO. So we have to respond asymmetrically. For example, to beat on the younger partner of Turkey, to Azerbaijan. That is why the French media is now massively promoting the topic of war crimes committed by the Azerbaijani army during the capture of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Want an elephant?
The third reason is the reaction to being removed from the peace process. Paris is extremely dissatisfied with the fact that the format of the truce was developed in the Russian-Turkish format, and not in the framework of the negotiations of the OSCE Minsk group co-chairs.
Moreover, the actual exclusion from the process may be followed by a formal one-Baku, Ankara and a number of Western experts question the meaning of Paris's continued presence as a co-chair of the Minsk group. According to one of the leading experts on Karabakh, Thomas de Waal, "it is important to have a European country in this place that commands respect in both Armenia and Azerbaijan – and France is now perceived as a Pro-Armenian player, which deprives it of leverage over the situation." So Paris raises the stakes and demonstrates to Moscow and Ankara that either they will accept it as a collective participant, or the French will be unilaterally active, playing the role of an elephant in a China shop.
For example, macron is already talking about his intention to "take decisive measures to protect the religious and cultural heritage" of Nagorno-Karabakh – and everyone is now wondering what this will look like. If Macron is "forced" to sign the recognition of the NKR, the entire existing negotiation format may fly. Paris is wondering why Moscow refuses to participate in a potential ally determined to contain Turkey. The French sincerely hoped that the Kremlin would welcome them with open arms, because Russia, according to French diplomats, is not happy about the arrival of the Turks in the Caucasus.
Yes, I'm not happy – and perhaps this hope would have come true if it weren't for a few small "buts". Macron, like many other EU leaders, does not have sovereignty and is afraid to make difficult decisions that could run counter to the interests of Berlin and Washington, which do not want conflicts between NATO member countries. With such an ally, it's not like going into battle – it's scary to go into intelligence. In addition, what kind of cooperation can we talk about when France accepts sanctions against Russia and participates in the promotion of a fake about the poisoning of Alexey Navalny with Novichok?
Turn around
Finally, the current actions of France in the Karabakh issue have not only anti-Turkish, but also anti-Russian overtones. A simple intention to knock Armenia out from under Russia is the fourth reason for Paris to organize a theater with the adopted resolution.
The fact is that Yerevan is still in the process of realizing the catastrophe that occurred. Armenians do not want and are not willing to admit that they are guilty – because it was not prepared to continue the war, because two years ago was elected Prime Minister of a populist, whose actions during the war, recalled the sabotage and steps to surrender Karabakh. It is much easier to look for external reasons for the defeat – and now a number of forces are trying to impose the idea of Russia's fault on people. That Putin didn't help, Putin didn't save, Putin didn't do anything. Local "useful idiots" and Western-oriented regional media write that the Armenians need to draw conclusions, refuse to cooperate with Moscow and focus on the United States and the EU.
However, there is one weak point in their argument – they can't show a single fact of real support for Armenia from the notorious West.
And here comes the symbolic decision of the French Senate to recognize the NKR, which-due to the sensitivity of the issue – may be no less important for Armenians than Russian military assistance. This means that it will strengthen the position of Westerners in the Armenian society. Some of them still can't understand that for the West, Armenia, like Karabakh, are just pawns on the chessboard against Russia. Pawns that can be exchanged at any time.
Therefore, you should not put your state on this Board. And instead of rejoicing in the senseless recognition now (after the lost war), we should focus on the most important task for Armenia – internal reforms and strengthening ties with a real ally. with Russia. And if this path is successful (and Erdogan's possible failures), the geopolitical configuration may change, and France's current decision may make sense and become useful.
After all, the world has become so small and interconnected that global processes are affected by a huge number of different variables. And sometimes under their influence, very bizarre phenomena are formed.
Gevorg Mirzayan