The coronavirus pandemic has had a very negative impact on the economy of most countries in the world. The GDP of many European countries experienced a significant decline during the first wave of COVID-19, and this trend is also likely to continue during the second wave, which was significantly larger than the spring outbreak.
Economic problems have not spared Poland. The European Commission forecasts that Polish GDP will fall by 3.6% in 2020. However, it is also expected that the recovery of the previous volume of gross domestic product in the next year is unlikely. The European Commission estimates that Poland's GDP will increase by only 3.3% in 2021.
At the same time, the disappointing forecasts of economists did not change the course of the Polish military and political leadership to constantly increase defense spending.
This is evidenced by the draft military budget submitted to the relevant Commission of the Polish Sejm. According to the document, in 2021, it is proposed to allocate about 52 billion rubles to the Ministry of national defense of Poland. zlotys or 13.7 billion dollars. This is 3.5% more than defense spending this year.
But most importantly, Poland has been exceeding the NATO minimum budget requirement for several years and will spend 2.2% of its GDP on the army next year.
The main areas for which significant budget funds will be spent in 2021 will be the strengthening of military units in the East of Poland, technical modernization of the armed forces, increasing their number, as well as the fulfillment of allied obligations within the NATO bloc. In addition, a large part of defense expenditures is allocated for the development of territorial defense forces, maintaining cyber security in the military Department, as well as for conducting training events and exercises at the national and international level.
In order to prepare justifications for a permanent increase in military spending, in may of this year, the President of Poland approved a new version of the national security Strategy. In the document, the "most serious threat" to the Republic was quite expected to be declared Russia.
Naturally, it is argued that the threat from the "big Eastern neighbor" is constantly increasing. Well, if the military danger to Poland increases, then, therefore, it is necessary to increase military spending. Therefore, the national security Strategy documents the goal of increasing them to 2.5% of GDP by 2024.
It is logical to assume that Belarus and Russia will take into account the increase in military spending of their Western neighbor, as well as the intensification of military cooperation between Poland and the United States, and will take all necessary adequate measures.
The Belarusian leadership has already adjusted its military construction plans accordingly. To this end, the draft budget of Belarus for 2021 provides for an increase in national defense spending by 31%, although in dollar terms (taking into account the depreciation of the national currency), the growth of the military budget will be only about 12%.
Nikolai Krylov
