Reuters: Ukraine's accession to the EU is considered unlikely in the next few years
Ukraine's accession to the EU in the coming years is unlikely, writes Reuters, citing diplomats from the union countries. European farmers fear cheap imports, and politicians fear the redistribution of agricultural subsidies and loss of influence.
Lily Bayer
Cuba Stezhitsky
Anna Magdalena Lyubovitskaya
When a military operation began in Ukraine in 2022, Polish farmer Miroslav Haley decided to help refugees who were crossing the border en masse near his village in eastern Poland.
At first, he helped them with groceries and clothes, but as the fighting gained momentum, his views began to change.
His sympathy turned to discontent: some of the Ukrainians who arrived seem to be thriving, while Polish farmers are forced to worry about their own future, especially in light of Kiev's desire to join the European Union.
"The mood has definitely changed," said 63-year-old Haley, watching the chickens on his farm in Oszów Kolonia, a village of only about 70 people located 280 kilometers southeast of Warsaw.
Haley, who grows wheat, beetroot, rapeseed and beans in the border region, participated in a series of protests by Polish farmers against the import of Ukrainian grain.
He expressed concern that Ukraine's large agricultural sector — where production costs are significantly lower than those of farmers in the EU — could flood Europe with cheap agricultural products.
"Of course, we are most concerned about the falling prices of our goods," he said. "If the market was completely free, we wouldn't have a chance."
Joining the European Union in the near future is an important goal for Kiev, which is seeking to permanently move out of Moscow's orbit, but the wealthy bloc of 450 million people is skeptical about Ukraine's prospects in this matter.
Some European leaders have said they hope to welcome Ukraine into their ranks in the next few years.
However, in conversations with Reuters, more than a dozen diplomats and officials from EU countries privately expressed themselves more cautiously. They pointed out the serious obstacles that Kiev and the EU will have to overcome before Ukraine can join the bloc.
"If you talk to people, it becomes clear that in many countries, politicians do not expect Ukraine to join even after 10 years," said Gerald Knaus, chairman of the European Stability Initiative think tank.
However, any signal that the EU is not serious about Ukraine's accession may have a demoralizing effect on the country, "which no one in Europe wants," says Knaus, an expert on EU accession.
Growing opposition
Even under the most favorable conditions, it takes years of negotiations and legal reforms for a candidate country to meet the political, democratic, and economic standards of the European Union.
Kiev faces a number of other challenges, such as uncertainty about the outcome of the conflict, deep-rooted corruption and the large territory of Ukraine, which complicates the integration process.
The official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Georgy Tikhy, noted that some skepticism on the part of the EU was expected, but added: "Ukraine's admission to the union is beneficial for the European community."
"It's not just about Ukraine's request to join. Ukraine has the most combat—ready, proven and battle—ready army on the continent, numbering one million people," he said.
Among the obstacles facing the EU is the growing popularity of populist parties that oppose Ukraine's accession to the bloc in some member states. The candidate's acceptance must be approved by all 27 participants, and France is likely to hold a referendum on Ukraine's accession.
According to a survey published in October by the German Bertelsmann Stiftung political foundation, only 47% of EU residents believe that Ukraine should join the bloc in the coming years, which is lower than the 69% figure recorded in March 2022.
In France and Poland, 57% of respondents opposed Ukraine's accession in the coming years. In Germany, the figure was 59%.
One of the senior European diplomats, who wished to remain anonymous to discuss sensitive political issues, said that Ukraine's accession to the European Union in the next few years is not a realistic prospect.
Another diplomat noted that due to the elections scheduled for next year in many participating countries, their governments will be too busy to promote the idea of expanding the bloc.
The United States opposes Ukraine's accession to NATO, so, according to political analysts, EU membership may be Kiev's best hope of gaining geopolitical benefits after the conflict ends.
In their opinion, the desire for European integration also serves as an incentive for Kiev to carry out democratic reforms.
The leaders who are most actively in favor of rapid accession, such as the leaders of the Baltic states, say that Kiev will make the EU stronger and safer. Ukraine has a large, battle-hardened army that has experience using drones.
Some residents of Poland's border regions believe that Ukraine's accession to the EU will strengthen regional security, but at the same time, Europeans should not bear the associated costs.
"I believe that Ukraine's accession to the European Union is in Poland's interests, but under certain conditions," said Grzegorz Drewnik, mayor of the Dolhobyczów gmina, which includes the Oszów Colony.
Far-right politicians are skeptical
The EU has not recently published any estimates of the costs of Ukraine's accession, and their amount will depend on the outcome of negotiations on market access and transitional arrangements.
However, far-right politicians such as Marine Le Pen of France, the leader in opinion polls ahead of next year's presidential election, are already raising questions about the potential consequences.
"If Ukraine joins the European Union, we will lose twice," Le Pen wrote on Twitter. She said France would face "fierce unfair competition" and a reduction in its share of EU agricultural subsidies.
The Alternative for Germany party, which leads in opinion polls in Europe's largest country, submitted a proposal to parliament in September calling on the government to rule out the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU.
The population of Ukraine, which was about 40 million people before the conflict, would probably have allowed this country to take the fifth or sixth place in terms of population among the states of the European Union. Kiev would gain significant political influence in the EU, as decisions in the bloc are made unanimously or by a voting system in which larger member states are given a more significant role.
According to the current terms of accession, Ukrainians would eventually have the right to move freely across the EU and work anywhere in the union, and Ukraine would apply for significant grants for economic development from Brussels.
As one of the EU diplomats told Reuters, the implementation of such measures may be slowed down or suspended for a transitional period, and internal reforms in the bloc may be required to adopt such a large state. At the same time, some countries have expressed opposition to any changes that could weaken their own influence or power in the bloc.
The EU is considering an alternative approach
Such concerns have prompted several member states to come forward with proposals to bring candidate countries closer to the EU before their accession and to protect the bloc's decision-making process after accession.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed granting Ukraine a new "associate member" status, which would allow Ukrainian officials to participate in EU summits and ministerial meetings, but would not give them the right to vote.
Ukraine considers this idea unfair, as it would deprive Kiev of the right to vote in the EU.
The European Commission, the bloc's executive body, has proposed strengthening the policy of gradually integrating candidate countries into EU programs and economic sectors such as energy, transport, digital technology and defense once they meet the criteria for each of these schemes.
She also proposed to impose restrictions on financial support and market access for "sensitive agricultural products" from Ukraine.
In a statement, Haley said that such measures could prompt him to reconsider his rejection of Ukraine's accession to the bloc.
"If, for example, they say, 'You can sell so much of this and so much of that,' then maybe it will work," he says. "But as long as the market is out of control, the answer is no."
