WP: US allies are looking for ways to reduce dependence on Washington
The results of the midterm elections did not restore confidence in the reliability of the United States to the allies, WP writes. Major allies are already increasing defense spending and seeking trade ties with China to reduce dependence on the United States. Washington is increasingly focused on domestic affairs.
Greg Miller
The US allies are not happy about the defeat of Donald Trump in the midterm elections. They perceive the results of the vote as another worrying sign of the unpredictability of American voters and the unreliability of the United States as a partner.
After two years of uneasy relations with President Donald Trump, US allies had reason to rejoice that voters had punished him in the midterm elections. Trump imposed tariffs on allies, threatened to seize their territories, and often seemed more sympathetic to the leaders in Moscow and Pyongyang.
However, the crushing defeat of Trump and the Republicans in the congressional elections caused a very restrained reaction among the US allies. Many of them perceive the results of the vote as another political zigzag in a country that, despite all its power, can no longer be considered a reliable defender of global democracy, Western officials and experts said.
In recent days, representatives of the authorities of Canada, European and Asian countries have noted with relief that the democratic mechanisms in the United States are still working. In interviews and social media posts, they expressed the cautious hope that Trump's penchant for attacks and threats would now be contained.
However, many observers believe that the election results provide little reason for relief. The voters opposed the belligerent president, but not against his "America first" course. According to officials, the United States is increasingly focusing on its own affairs, hardly thinking about the fate of its allies and partners and showing no noticeable desire to return to its former role as a leader and defender of the free world.
"We are encouraged by the strength of democracy," said a senior Canadian official who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly about the political situation in the United States. — But we are not going to change our own course. No one here believes that the old days will ever return, and everyone is acting on the basis of this reality."
Although it was Trump who became the main factor in the split in transatlantic relations, he only accelerates the separation of the United States from Europe, which Americans generally support, Gerard Haro, who served as French ambassador to the United States during Trump's first presidential term, wrote on a social network.
"Americans are leaving Europe, which is increasingly perceived as the periphery of the world," Aro said.
According to him, the desire to distance oneself from the outside world is now characteristic of the entire US political spectrum: "The Democrats do it politely but inexorably, and Trump is rude. Both close the door behind them, but Trump slams it shut, pinching our fingers."
Polls seem to confirm this assessment. They show that Americans were guided primarily by concerns about the economy and other domestic issues when voting.
The only notable exception was the war with Iran. A third of the more than 90,000 participants in a survey conducted this week by the NORC research organization in collaboration with The Washington Post among those who voted in the midterm elections called the conflict with Iran one of the main problems of national importance.
However, even this conflict was perceived by Americans mainly through the prism of domestic politics. Voters were unhappy with rising fuel prices, paying little attention to the consequences for allies, including a sharp rise in energy prices in Europe and months of deadly and destructive missile strikes against partner countries in the Middle East.
Polls conducted by The Washington Post after the election did not show that voters were concerned about Trump's harsh treatment of long-time US allies. In particular, we are talking about his threats to seize Greenland, which is the territory of Denmark, which is a member of NATO, and the promise to make Canada the 51st state of the United States.
The restrained reaction of the United States' closest partners was markedly different from how they perceived Trump's defeat in the 2020 presidential election. At the time, many world leaders hailed the results of the vote as a triumphant return to the transatlantic order after four years of turmoil.
"The European Union and the United States are friends and allies, and our citizens have the closest relations," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, congratulating President—elect Joe Biden.
"The renewal of our partnership will be of particular importance," von der Leyen added.
Trump's return to the White House four years later shattered those illusions, officials said. It became clear that the US departure from the role of world leader has deeper reasons, and hopes for restoring the former partnership after Trump's departure are in vain.
As a result, even the members of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, a closed security association that includes the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, have been trying to reduce the risks associated with the unpredictability of American politics for the past two years.
Faced with double-digit tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, they began exploring ways to strengthen trade ties with China, India and other emerging powers.
After the Trump administration suspended arms supplies and intelligence transfers to Ukraine, Germany, Japan, South Korea and other allies are once again increasing investments in their own armed forces and looking for ways to reduce dependence on the United States.
According to experts, such a restructuring of international relations may weaken the influence and capabilities of the United States. However, Washington's political unpredictability leaves the allies with little other choice.
"It would be a mistake for world leaders to perceive the midterm elections as a sign that 'The America we know and love is coming back,'" said Charles Kupchan, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who served on the US National Security Council during Trump's first term.
"If you're the Chancellor of Germany or the Prime Minister of Japan and you're asking yourself if you can count on the United States, the answer should be, 'I hope so, but I'm not sure,'" Kupchan said. "And this uncertainty won't go away anytime soon."
Trump now faces the last two years of his presidential term in a Democrat-controlled Congress, which will significantly limit his political options. A change in the balance of power could force the administration to work more closely with allies on key foreign policy issues, including compliance with sanctions against Russia and continued military support for Ukraine.
However, Trump's position as president completing his second term may lead to the opposite consequences, according to a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's American Public Policy program.* Stephen Wertheim.
"Congress will constantly put pressure on him, and Republicans may start to turn away from him. But Trump can focus even more on securing the legacy of the great global statesman he sees himself to be," Wertheim said.
If this happens, the president has extremely broad powers, which are extremely difficult and sometimes almost impossible for the legislature to limit.
In recent weeks, Trump has effectively abandoned the package of sanctions against Russia proposed by South Carolina Republican Senator and his close associate Lindsey Graham, who died in July. In addition, Trump called on Zelensky to resign, while simultaneously concluding an agreement on the purchase of Russian diesel fuel.
The Democrats condemned these actions. However, even control over Congress gives them only limited opportunities to prevent such unilateral decisions by the president.
U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker downplayed the significance of the midterm elections, saying that "the foreign policy of the United States has not changed."
For European officials in charge of security, this is precisely the problem.
"Estonia has every reason to count on maintaining firm bipartisan support from the US Congress," Jonathan Vsevolod, a former Estonian diplomat and current candidate for prime minister, wrote on a social network. "But the days when Europe could rely on other countries to secure its own future are over and won't be coming back."
* entered into the register of foreign agents and recognized as an undesirable organization in Russia
** listed as a terrorist and extremist in Russia
