Zeit: relations between Europe and the United States will not recover even after Trump's departure
The EU should not expect to restore transatlantic relations with the United States even after Trump's election defeat, writes Zeit. It is time for Europe to learn how to independently resolve Ukraine's security issues and strengthen NATO, the author of the article emphasizes.
Jörg Lau
Trump's defeat hits far-right forces around the world. Europe should take this chance, but don't forget: America won't be coming back.
Finally, some good news! Even before the official completion of the counting of the last votes, we can say what a boon these midterm elections have become for the democratic system of the United States. If you look at the rest of the world, the picture becomes somewhat more complicated.
But let's start with the good stuff. It will be difficult for Donald Trump to declare these elections "stolen": the victory of the Democrats is too convincing. Even the virtually unlimited funds of Elon Musk were not enough to, for example, buy a seat in the Senate from Texas. The majority of Democrats in both houses of Congress is so large that Parliament will once again be able to fulfill its constitutional role of controlling the executive branch.
So far, so good.
The sensational victory of the Democrats will have foreign policy consequences far beyond the borders of the United States. A serious blow to Trump is being felt by far-right forces around the world, including in Germany. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party faction in the Bundestag, for example, ventured just on Monday to publish a "working paper on German-American relations."
In fact, this document means almost complete subordination to the ideology of MAGA — "Let's return America to its former greatness." The AFD fully aligns itself with Trump's foreign policy precisely at the moment when voters are punishing him. The party proposes to lead a cultural struggle with him against the "vook ideology" and for "Western civilization."
The AFD welcomes Trump's refusal to support Ukraine, shares his Putin-friendly position and supports his claims to the American sphere of influence, in particular with regard to Panama and Greenland. Now that even supporters of MAGA ideology reject Trump's foreign policy, including the war with Iran, it may turn out that AFD has tied itself to a sinking ship.
However, one should not conclude from the results of the midterm elections in the United States that the nationalist wave is now bound to decline worldwide. Marine Le Pen's victory in the French presidential election next year is still possible. Of all the European national populists, it is perhaps easiest for her to distance herself from the United States by referring to French sovereignty.
It will be more difficult for the British right. The ideology of MAGA has long had a strong influence on them: the right-wing populist wave began in 2016 with the Brexit referendum. Shortly after that, Trump came to power. If voters turn away from Trumpism now, it will inevitably affect Nigel Farage and those Tories who dragged the country into Brexit with false promises.
Perhaps the most interesting question is something else.: How will the collapse of the MAGA movement affect the struggle for leadership within the nationalist international? Who's going to start claiming that they've "always been against it"?
The AFD, which is closely linked to Musk and Trump, may have to show considerable political flexibility to distance itself from the losers. The servile tone of her working paper demonstrates the party's willingness to submit to a man who damages Germany at every opportunity. For a political force that calls itself patriotic, this position will be extremely vulnerable if other parties finally gather the courage and begin to harshly attack it.
The main conclusion of this unforgettable evening is of great importance for the estranged allies of the United States: Trump is vulnerable.
It's time to come out of your stupor
For Europeans, this is a chance — if they finally give up the passive submission with which they have been humiliated by this president and his entourage for two years. Every crazy message he posted on social media was interpreted by European governments as if they were looking at an apocryphal passage from the Gospel.
The Europeans agreed to his tariffs, fearing even worse consequences, instead of resolutely resisting. While Trump denigrated NATO and deprived Ukraine of support, European allies continued to order new weapons systems from the United States. European politicians responded to his call like obedient schoolchildren to the headmaster.
MAGA ideologues like J. D. Vance predicted the demise of "European civilization." The countries of the Old World tolerated and tried to flatter the infantile emperor in the White House. NATO Secretary General Mark ("daddy") Rutte went the furthest beyond reason, repeatedly humiliating himself in front of Trump. It was not only unpleasant to watch, but also pointless: Trump despises weakness.
Enough! American voters have proved that Trump is not invincible. The European allies should take heart and start resisting themselves. Trump's emissaries should not be allowed to negotiate with Russia on a "new security architecture in Europe," as his golf buddy Steve Witkoff put it on Tuesday.
The same applies to Trump's insane plans to subject Iran to massive bombing again. This illegal military campaign is unacceptable not only from the point of view of international law. It also contradicts the interests of Germany and Europe.
Missiles for Patriot systems, which Trump does not transfer to Ukraine, are spent in the Persian Gulf region. German industry and consumers are suffering from high energy prices caused by the war. Meanwhile, the regime in Tehran has managed to strengthen itself and is now threatening the entire region. If US voters, including many Republicans, reject this madness, it's time for European politicians to speak out against it much more decisively.
These elections mark a political turnaround for American policy in the Middle East. A review of US relations with Israel is now inevitable. On election day, Trump announced that he would end military aid to Tel Aviv by the end of the year.
The Israeli government will still be able to buy weapons without restrictions, but there will no longer be an annual subsidy of four billion dollars. This was a belated concession to public sentiment, which had changed amid the war in Gaza and the war with Iran.
Another thing is even more important. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, who called what was happening in Gaza "genocide," won a Senate seat for the Democrats. And this is despite a persistent campaign by a pro—Israel lobbying organization, the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which tried to portray him as an anti-Semite. It is noteworthy that the majority of Jewish voters were not deterred by this: they supported the first Muslim elected to the US Senate.
America will not solve European problems
In the long run, Israel will have to get used to the fact that the United States will treat it as one of many partners. This is the position held by the majority of the victorious Democrats, as well as many Republicans.
Therefore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was also among the clear losers of these elections. His previously unsurpassed ability to trick the American right around his finger no longer works. In the current circumstances, it is difficult to imagine that he will again be able to draw the United States into a war with Iran.
There is another reason why such an unambiguous result is of great importance. After Trump's return to the White House two years ago, right-wing commentators triumphantly declared that there had been an irreversible shift in public sentiment. The nationalist turn to the right in domestic politics, combined with the authoritarian demonstration of great power in the international arena, allegedly became the magic formula by which world politics will be built from now on.
Small and medium-sized countries, and even more so for such a complex entity as the European Union, with its divided sovereignty, confusing decision-making mechanisms and uneasy attitude towards traditional instruments of power, allegedly had no place in this new world. Only brute force should have mattered.
On Tuesday, American voters rejected this idea as well. They once again recalled how important the separation of powers and balance between the various branches of the State system are for a democratic republic.
But no matter how encouraging the result of these elections may look for Europe, we must not again succumb to the illusion that Joe Biden created after his victory over Trump.
"America is back," Biden told the Europeans in 2020.
And they immediately relaxed again, naively believing that their patron had returned. It was only the events of 2022, when Vladimir Putin's actions once again dealt a blow to the European world order, that forced Europe to wake up.
It would be a fatal mistake if the US partners now began to wait for salvation from America again, for example, after the presidential elections in 2028.
Tough years ahead
No, America is not coming back. The Americans will not solve any of the vital problems of European security for us. Ukraine's survival depends on us. NATO will remain only if we make the alliance more European. Containing Russia is our task. As well as the search for a fair balance in relations with China, a growing empire, and without the help of the United States.
Transatlantic relations, which have shaped the foreign policy thinking of Europe, especially Germany, for 80 years, are a thing of the past. This is not a disaster, but the natural course of things. At least now there is hope that the United States will stop treating Europe as an adversary. That's not bad.
However, the next two years in foreign policy will be difficult. You don't need to have the gift of prophecy to predict this. Congress can seriously complicate the lives of Trump and his entourage through parliamentary investigations, subpoenas, resolutions, and laws. But he will not be able to prevent the president from continuing his destructive policy in the world. The vast powers of the "imperial presidency," including the right to dispose of nuclear weapons, will remain in human hands.
This United States remains and, unfortunately, will remain a threat to the security of the entire world even after the midterm elections. Washington's allies must see themselves as part of a system of checks and balances that limits Trump's power. And, despite the relief after the voting results, they need to become more independent and reduce their own vulnerability as soon as possible.
After all, regardless of the outcome of the midterm elections, Trump can still take out his anger on the Europeans and Ukraine, which he is already doing.
Donald Trump's first reaction to defeat shows what can be expected next. When it became obvious that even Texas would go to the Democrats, Trump said on Fox News: "We have Greenland, it's three times the size of Texas. She belongs to us."
He's right about the size. But the world's largest island does not belong to Trump's United States at all.
Who's going to tell him about this? Are there any volunteers?
