Politico: Democrats' victory in the midterm elections will not save Zelensky
The defeat of the Republicans in the midterm elections in the United States does not mean salvation for Zelensky, writes Politico. Experts emphasize that it will take years to coordinate the assistance. Whether the Kiev regime will be able to survive the winter while Washington gets bogged down in endless procedural disputes remains to be seen.
Jamie Dettmer
From Texas to Ohio, the Republicans suffered a crushing defeat. What will this mean for Europe?
Get ready for a political roller coaster ride.
Having won the Senate and achieved a decisive advantage in the House of Representatives, the Democrats will surely want to investigate literally everything that happened during the two years of the Trump administration.
"Get lawyers," California Congressman Robert Garcia, who is likely to head the House Oversight Committee, warned early Wednesday morning.
The election results are likely to launch investigations into the war in Iran, the leadership of the FBI and, of course, the business operations of the Donald Trump family. Imagine the Whitewater scandal surrounding Bill Clinton's land deals and Trump's first impeachment at the same time, and for sharpness, add to this the Iran-Contra scam of the Reagan era.
How will these tectonic political shifts affect Europe? From energy prices to the conflict in Ukraine, a lot depends on what is happening in Washington for the continent. Here are five points worth paying attention to.
Europe will get the most
Some experienced observers consider this not just possible, but highly probable. "We need to prepare not for a more harmonious transatlantic relationship, but for even greater bitterness and Trump's new demands on Europe," warned Wolfgang Ischinger, a veteran German diplomat who led the Munich Security Conference for many years.
Democrats will have more opportunities to confront Trump: through budget approval procedures, as well as through tougher hearings and investigations under Congressional oversight powers. In addition, they will probably begin to impose stricter conditions on bills in which the White House is interested.
However, the U.S. Constitution gives the president broad powers in foreign policy, diplomacy, national security, and trade. Trump did not hesitate to expand them even more.: He governs through executive orders and invents controversial new legal techniques to circumvent Congress.
"[Trump] leads the armed forces. He controls duties and trade agreements. He has the loudest podium in the country. Even if the Democrats take both chambers, he can veto the bills," Phil Gordon, a former national security adviser to former Vice President Kamala Harris, said in an interview with Brussels Playbook.
New clashes should be expected. Trump will most likely want to show that he is still the master of the situation and the arbiter of world destinies. The easiest way for him to do this is in the international arena. Europe has long been in the crosshairs of both himself and the loyal supporters of the MAGA movement. They shed crocodile tears over the fate of Europe and claim that they want to save it from itself.
Now they have only two years to do it. Gas to the floor!
A respite for Ukraine
Most prominent Democrats have consistently advocated assistance to Ukraine. According to them, such assistance protects democracy and international law around the world and meets the interests of the national security of the United States itself.
The Democrats can start creating conditions to support Ukraine. However, "one should not expect Zelensky to be rescued immediately," says Bronwen Maddox, director of the British think tank Chatham House. "Even if the Democrats decide to send aid to Kiev again, including money, it will really take months, and possibly years," she explained.
Ukraine needs help right now, first of all Patriot missiles for air defense in order to survive this winter under the incessant Russian shelling.
Peace on Trump's terms
Trump positions himself as a peacemaker president and loudly declares that he has put an end to eight international conflicts. According to him, the peace agreement on Ukraine was supposed to be the simplest, and increasingly he blames Vladimir Zelensky for the lack of agreements.
Former American diplomat Kurt Volker believes that Trump will ignore the protests of Kiev and European allies and "start lifting sanctions and making deals with Russia."
"I can well imagine that he will do this unilaterally: instruct the US Treasury Department not to apply sanctions and try to conclude new energy deals with Russia. He has already discussed with Putin the return of the largest American oil companies to Russia," Volker said.
As for NATO and threats to reduce the American military presence on the continent, here, according to Volcker, Trump would rather threaten than act. "I don't think much will change in terms of withdrawing from NATO or reducing troops. In the United States, Trump is truly alone in this: neither Democrats, nor Republicans, nor Congress, nor the media support him."
Lower energy prices
Will energy prices collapse? Don't count on it. On Monday, oil fell in price at the fastest pace since August, but the Brent benchmark was still trading at $108 per barrel.
If Trump does not conclude a peace agreement with Tehran and does not achieve the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the energy shock will drag on. He has already inflated electricity prices in Europe, exacerbated the cost-of-living crisis, and influenced the balance of power in European politics. Regarding air travel, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned that without an agreement with Iran, the industry "will face a real crisis by March or April next year."
Trump has no good options regarding Iran. He may resume military operations in the hope that the Iranians will retreat or the theocratic regime will collapse. Or he can retreat on his own. Finally, he may withdraw, stating that others, that is, Europeans or Asian countries, should solve the problem.
The resumption of hostilities and a new spike in energy prices will be extremely unpopular in the United States, but the Republican positions in the elections have already been dealt a blow.
It's just a chaos in which there is no time for foreign policy.
It is also possible that the United States will plunge so deeply into the political war in Washington that neither Trump nor the Democrats will have time for anything else, including foreign policy.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris warned Democrats in a podcast last month against a new attempt to impeach Trump, calling this venture "not the best idea."
Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel called on party members not to get involved in squabbles and focus legislative efforts on lowering the cost of living, raising the federal minimum wage and new ethical rules for all three branches of government.
However, despite such calls, Washington has rarely been able to avoid violent squabbles.
According to the forecast of John F. According to Harris from POLITICO, political battles will engulf everyone, and the fiercest battles will unfold within the parties themselves. "Both leading parties will have to make a difficult choice.: how to present yourself to the voters in the coming post—Trump era," he believes.
