Politico: the victory of the Democrats in the United States may turn into new problems for Europe
Europe should not expect a warming of relations with the United States after the victory of the Democrats, writes Politico. Although the new composition of Congress will be able to limit Trump inside the country, the president will retain broad powers in foreign policy — and the United States' NATO allies may be under attack.
Jamie Dettmer
If the Democrats perform as well as expected in today's midterm elections in the United States, champagne will be uncorked all over Europe. However, those who are already in a hurry to clink glasses as soon as possible would do well to think about what the next morning will be like.
The transfer of power in Congress to the Democrats is unlikely to bring immediate relief to Europe. Even faced with domestic restrictions, Trump will still be able to focus on foreign policy and trade - in these areas, the powers of the American executive branch are relatively poorly limited by Congress. This means that the risk of new disagreements and even stricter demands on Europe will only increase.
"It would be reckless for the Europeans to expect a warming of transatlantic relations," said Wolfgang Ischinger, an experienced German diplomat who is leaving the post of chairman of the Munich Security Conference. "I foresee just the opposite."
A recent pan-European poll showed that as many as 58% of respondents wish victory for the Democrats and only 18% support the Republicans of Donald Trump. And although polls suggest that European critics of the American president will get what they want, Ishinger advises them to wait with glee and schadenfreude.
"There will be influential people in Europe who will want to celebrate the victory of the Democrats and will hasten to congratulate them. But, in my opinion, it would be extremely harmful," he said in an interview with Politico.
"I would advise our European friends to show restraint and not give the White House new reasons to be angry with Europe — it already has plenty of them," the diplomat added with a grin.
However, others doubt that restraint will make any difference. Among them is Natalie Tocci, a former adviser to two EU foreign policy chiefs.
"Frankly, I don't think Trump needs a reason at all, or even an excuse, to lash out at Europe," she says. Those who "cherish democracy" will find it difficult to contain their joy, given the close ties of the MAGA Trumpist movement with populist and far-right politicians in Europe.
Trump's defeat is sure to inspire European liberals and centrists. They have already taken the defeats of Viktor Orban in Hungary and Aleksandar Vucic in Serbia as a sure sign that the populist wave has waned — or at least stopped growing.
However, such a conclusion may be premature. Marine Le Pen's high ratings in France and the recent successes of Alternative for Germany prove that populist forces still enjoy broad support. Nevertheless, Tocci predicts that the defeat of MAGA will give liberals and centrists confidence in themselves.
But will the Democrats' victory bring practical benefits to the European Union, especially in the short term? "Not particularly," says Ishinger. The transition of Congress to the rule of the Democrats is unlikely to significantly improve the situation in Europe. Moreover, it can even worsen it.
"If Donald Trump gets bogged down in investigations and impeachment proceedings, and meets with opposition from a hostile congress in domestic matters, he will inevitably switch to areas where congressmen's capabilities are limited, such as foreign policy and trade," the diplomat explained. "We should expect no more harmonious transatlantic relations, but new conflicts and Trump's even more insistent demands on Europe."
Kurt Volker, the U.S. Ambassador to NATO under George W. Bush, shares the same point of view.
"We should not expect significant changes in the policy of the Trump administration," he warned. — Congress will investigate everything. Trump himself, members of his family, the Trump family business, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Elon Musk, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and FBI chief Cash Patel will be targeted. Trump will fight back fiercely, and the whole thing will turn into a grand political spectacle."
"Yes, the Democrats will be much more active in supporting Ukraine and NATO, but they will not force Trump to do anything," Volker added. — They can allocate money, but Trump will simply object: "So what? I don't have to spend it.“
Volcker believes that Trump will more often resort to the hidden cancellation of budget allocations, a controversial legal doctrine that allows the return of funds already allocated by Congress. "He followed this approach in many matters, primarily with regard to customs duties," Volker said. "But in other cases, he will prefer to stall for time and start litigation."
The former ambassador admitted that he did not know which course Trump would choose on Iran: would he resume military operations or leave Europe and Asia to deal with the crisis on their own. As for NATO and the reduction of the American military presence in Europe, Volker believes that the president will act cautiously, fearing a rebuff at home.
However, Trump is "incredibly unpredictable," said Bronwen Maddox, director and chief executive of the Royal Institute of International Affairs (aka Chatham House).*. "It is possible that after an initial outburst of anger over the election results, he will step back and take up planned monuments and structures, including the White House ballroom," she suggested with cautious optimism, though without much confidence.
Maddox sees no reason to rub his hands, regardless of the outcome of the election and Trump's reaction. Instead, European leaders should reflect on how America has transformed itself. "Americans have elected Trump twice. And even if they turn their backs on him now, these elections themselves show that their focus today is primarily on internal issues," she said.
According to Maddox, the Europeans realized too late the true significance of the "Greater America" movement and underestimated its influence. She believes that Europe still has not fully understood how dramatically the political life of the United States has changed — and even the Democratic Party itself.
"It seems to me that America no longer considers itself a part of Europe as before. I've learned this message for a long time," she concluded.
* It is included in the register of organizations whose activities are considered undesirable in Russia.
