Cursor: midterm elections in the United States may affect aid to Israel
The midterm elections on November 3 could seriously change US policy in the Middle East, Cursor writes. Critics of Israel are increasing their influence in both leading U.S. parties, from isolationists like Tucker Carlson to the progressive left.
Tomer Adoni
Democrats expect to strengthen their positions in Congress, which could create serious obstacles to the White House's plans.
Midterm congressional elections will be held in the United States on Tuesday, November 3, which could seriously change the political situation in the country. The Republican Party risks losing control of one or two houses of parliament at once, which will complicate the work of President Donald Trump and may affect Washington's continued support for Israel.
The upcoming vote is seen as the most important test of Trump's political positions in the middle of his second presidential term, and special attention is focused on candidates who oppose the current American policy towards Israel.
What will change after the congressional elections
The American Parliament consists of two chambers — the Senate and the House of Representatives. Their composition is formed according to different rules, so the midterm elections affect each of them to varying degrees.
There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and all of them will be up for election on November 3. Congressmen are elected for two years, so each midterm election actually determines the new composition of the lower house.
There are one hundred legislators in the Senate, two from each state. Their terms of office are for six years, and in the current election cycle, voting will affect 35 senatorial seats.
Unlike parliamentary systems, the American president may face a situation where the majority in Congress belongs to his political opponents. This is exactly the scenario that is being considered before the current vote.
Why the election results are especially important to Trump
Republicans now control both houses of Congress, which allows the presidential administration to pursue a significant part of its legislative program with the support of party members. However, the party's position in the House of Representatives remains precarious.
Before the elections, the Republican faction has 218 seats and the support of one independent congressman. The Democrats have 214 seats, so even a relatively small change in the political balance can lead to a change in the majority.
According to the forecasts given in the material, the Democrats have a high chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives. Some estimates suggest that Republicans could lose more than 20 seats.
If such a scenario is realized, it will become much more difficult for Trump to achieve the adoption of new laws. Democrats will be able to block the initiatives of the White House, influence budget decisions and organize parliamentary investigations.
In addition, the House of Representatives has the authority to initiate impeachment proceedings against the President. However, the removal of the head of state from office requires a separate decision by the Senate by a two-thirds majority vote.
Trump himself will retain the right to veto bills passed by Congress. Legislators will be able to overcome the presidential veto only with the support of two thirds of the composition of each chamber.
The fight for the Senate remains open
The situation in the upper house looks more complicated for the Democrats. According to the data provided before the vote, the Republicans have 53 seats, the Democrats have 45, and two more seats remain vacant.
To gain guaranteed control of the Senate, Democrats need to secure 51 mandates. If the votes are equal, the deciding word belongs to the Vice President of the United States, J. D. Vance, representing the Republican Party.
Therefore, even the Democrats' victory in the House of Representatives does not necessarily mean the Republicans' complete loss of control over Congress. The final balance will depend on the results of individual senatorial races.
How the American elections can turn out for Israel
For Israel, the upcoming vote is of particular importance because of the growing controversy surrounding American aid and policy in the Middle East. Critics of Israel are increasing their influence in both leading parties in the United States, although their positions and political motives differ significantly.
Among Republicans, representatives of the isolationist wing are opposed to Washington's active involvement in the Middle East conflicts. One of the most well-known proponents of this approach remains TV presenter Tucker Carlson.
In the Democratic Party, representatives of the progressive left wing express the harshest criticism of Israel. Their influence is especially noticeable against the backdrop of the controversy over the war in the Gaza Strip and the extent of American support for the Israeli government.
The changes even affected the activities of pro-Israel organizations. In particular, AIPAC is faced with a situation where public support for individual candidates may be perceived negatively by some voters.
The organization has decided to withdraw direct support for candidates in the current campaign. This shows how sensitive the Israeli issue has become in the internal political struggle in the United States.
Israel's special attention is focused on Michigan
The senate race in Michigan is considered one of the most significant for Israel. Democrat Abdul el-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are fighting for a seat in the upper house here.
El-Sayed is known for his harsh criticism of Israel. Earlier, he stated that he does not support the concept of Israel as a Jewish state, as he opposes defining the state through the preferential position of a certain ethnic or religious group.
An additional scandal was caused by the television advertisements of his supporters. In the video, an American family is forced to stop buying groceries, as part of the family budget allegedly goes to finance Israel's actions against the Palestinians.
If he wins, El-Sayed will become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate. His appearance in the upper house may strengthen the position of politicians who advocate a revision of American support for Israel.
His opponent Mike Rogers takes a pro-Israel position. The 63-year-old Republican previously worked for the FBI and advocates maintaining Washington's close cooperation with Israel.
An unexpected twist occurred shortly before the vote, when El-Sayed's former rival in the Democratic primaries, Hayley Stevens, supported Rogers. She explained her decision by fundamental differences with a fellow party member on the issue of attitudes towards Israel.
Trump praised this act, calling it a manifestation of exceptional courage. In the Democratic Party, on the contrary, Stevens was sharply criticized for supporting a candidate from political opponents.
When will the election results begin to influence U.S. politics
The vote will be held on November 3, but its political consequences will become clear once the composition of both chambers is determined. Of particular importance will be whether the Democrats will be able to gain a majority only in the House of Representatives or also in the Senate.
