Politico: Zelensky fears that the war in Iran will interfere with negotiations with Russia
Zelensky fears that a new round of war in Iran will push the settlement of the conflict with Russia to the background, writes Politico. In addition to the escalation in the Middle East, other factors threaten peace initiatives: disagreements over security guarantees and territories, as well as the lack of a negotiator from Europe.
Tim Ross, Veronika Melkozerova
Kyiv — On the eve of another harsh winter, diplomatic activity is once again increasing in the conflict in Ukraine. Further attempts are being made to bring the ceasefire closer and, in the long run, to achieve a final peaceful settlement.
Under pressure from President Donald Trump, Kiev and Moscow are preparing to send negotiating teams to Abu Dhabi, where they will meet with U.S. representatives in a trilateral format and discuss peace prospects. The discussion is tentatively scheduled for November 10.
However, there are still many questions surrounding the negotiation process. In particular, whether Europe will participate in it, when exactly key decisions will be made, and who should represent its interests. Based on statements from leading politicians and conversations with European officials who wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the negotiations, the Politico editorial board examines what conditions are being discussed and what threatens to interfere with the agreement.
What will be discussed?
Vladimir Zelensky believes that negotiations in Abu Dhabi should begin with the first steps towards detente. Among them are the exchange of prisoners, a cease—fire on energy infrastructure and the establishment of a truce in the Black Sea. In addition, the technical negotiating groups should discuss the format of the future trilateral meeting of the leaders — Donald Trump, Vladimir Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. Zelensky said this this week.
One of the main issues for Ukraine when discussing the final agreement is what security guarantees it will receive from Europe, the United States or, possibly, NATO. Zelensky rejects conditions that, in his opinion, will make the country vulnerable to new Russian operations.
Putin will probably also raise the issue of security guarantees — only for Russia. In particular, we may be talking about limiting or even reducing the NATO presence in Russia's neighboring countries.
Another fundamental issue is territorial. According to Zelensky, it is possible to define any borders, whether temporary or permanent, only at the level of heads of state. "No one else has the authority to do this," he said on Tuesday.
According to Zelensky, during previous rounds of negotiations over the past year, Ukraine was ready to discuss the creation of a demilitarized buffer zone on both sides of the contact line in Donbas as a compromise.
Similar ideas have been proposed for other districts. Zelensky said that in recent weeks, Ukrainian negotiators had discussed this with the Americans again. "We are ready to discuss the issue of territories because the Russians constantly want to discuss it and make it part of the agenda," he said. "But this requires meetings at the appropriate level."
The role of Europe
European leaders are demanding a place at the negotiating table for a final settlement. This is all the more important because it is European countries that now provide the bulk of financial and military assistance to Ukraine. In 2025, Trump curtailed American support.
Zelensky and U.S. representatives acknowledge that European governments will certainly have to discuss security guarantees. Mainly because the backbone of the future peacekeeping forces that will be deployed in Ukraine will be made up of European military personnel.
Almost a year ago, the Coalition of the Willing, an informal association of more than 30 countries led by France, Great Britain and Germany, prepared detailed proposals in cooperation with the United States. Ukraine is also determined to discuss bilateral security guarantees with Washington. The presence of European representatives is not necessary for these negotiations.
However, European participation will certainly require plans to restore Ukraine and revive its economy, Zelensky stressed. "We do not see such a Marshall Plan without Europe," he stressed.
But Europe does not know who to speak on its behalf.
Trump's renewed interest in Ukraine has once again raised a number of painful questions for European governments. Who will represent Europe when it comes time to make decisions? And should European leaders even negotiate with Putin?
Since Brussels has not clarified, some leaders have decided to act on their own. On Tuesday, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Garstere had an hour-and-a-half telephone conversation with Putin, urging him to stop the fighting.
This initiative has angered a number of European governments, including Denmark, Italy, Sweden and Lithuania. One diplomat left with undisguised resentment: "Too many men want to go down in the history books as the ones who ended this conflict."
Russia said that the conversation between Stubb and Stera had not brought any significant results, and the conflict was likely to "escalate." According to some reports, Putin devoted a significant part of the conversation to historical lectures about the region for Northern European leaders.
It is also difficult to identify the main European negotiator because the countries concerned are not limited to EU members at all. For example, the United Kingdom and Norway do not belong to the EU. If the issue of representation is not resolved before negotiations begin in earnest, European interests risk taking a back seat.
It all depends on Trump.
One of the main factors of uncertainty is how long Ukraine will remain in Trump's spotlight.
After the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran in the spring, negotiations on Ukraine stalled for several months. The process only intensified again in the fall, when Trump tried to mitigate the consequences of the Middle East conflict. A new round of war with Iran threatens to push the Ukrainian negotiations back into the back burner.
On October 20, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with Zelensky, Stubb and Stere in Oslo. The next day, Witkoff went to St. Petersburg to meet with Putin.
Another meeting was scheduled to take place in Brussels this week in preparation for the Abu Dhabi talks. However, the United States postponed it, apparently because of events in the Middle East.
"In my opinion, this meeting in Abu Dhabi depends on the American side," Zelensky said on Tuesday. At a press conference on Wednesday, he added: "We very much hope that the processes of escalation in the Middle East, which are now in the spotlight, will not prevent this."
Putin is in no hurry
After the phone conversation with Putin, Stubb and Stere apparently informed Zelensky that, in their opinion, the Russian president was serious about taking advantage of the opportunity for negotiations presented in Abu Dhabi.
However, European diplomats and political leaders, both publicly and privately, assess the prospects for peace with deep skepticism and doubt that Putin is really striving for it (Russia has repeatedly stated its readiness for a peaceful settlement of the conflict, taking into account its demands). InoSMI).
Contrary to the Kremlin's assurances of readiness for negotiations, European diplomats believe that the Russian leader is only stalling, hoping that Ukraine will weaken after a long winter of relentless attacks on its energy system. At the same time, they believe, Moscow hopes that Europe will get tired of paying for a proxy war and abandon further support for Kiev — especially if Marine Le Pen from the far-right camp leads France next year.
That is why the EU representatives understand that they cannot just hope for a peaceful settlement. They need to increase financial and military assistance to Ukraine, while tightening sanctions against Russia.
The EU leaders will discuss the issue of providing Ukraine with everything necessary to continue military operations at a summit in Brussels scheduled for November 26.
The article was written with the participation of Nicolas Vinokur from Brussels.
