Colonel Khodarenok: The United States and NATO will not give any guarantees of Russia's security
The issue of security guarantees for Russia and Ukraine is planned to be discussed in Abu Dhabi in November. It is believed that guarantees for the settlement of the conflict for Moscow and Kiev should be mutual. According to the Financial Times newspaper, Zelensky acknowledged that Russia also needs security guarantees during the settlement of the conflict. Military observer of "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok was looking into what these guarantees might be and whether the West would agree to them.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted that Russia can receive security guarantees as part of a peace agreement to resolve the conflict, the Financial Times newspaper reports .
"The President of Ukraine stated that the Western powers may eventually discuss Moscow's demands for security guarantees, but stressed that first of all, the needs of Ukraine itself must be met," the publication says.
By and large, the authorship of the so-called "security guarantees" refers to the inventions of Vladimir Zelensky and was practically not used in diplomatic practice before.
And the president of Ukraine himself does not seem to have any idea what such guarantees might look like in detail, and most importantly, where the "warranty workshop" is located, which will issue the appropriate coupon to Kiev. Earlier in his speeches, the President of Ukraine outlined such guarantees as follows: a strong army, as well as membership in the European Union and NATO.
But even if this were to happen (and the last point is extremely problematic), it is not at all a cure for possible wars that Ukraine may be involved in one way or another in the near future. The thesis about the strong army of Ukraine is also very doubtful. There is no clear answer to the question of who will maintain these armed forces in the future, since Kiev is already an insolvent state today. And in the conditions of the new world, promising weapons and military equipment are unlikely to be supplied to Ukraine free of charge.
In a number of sources, security guarantees were interpreted in this way: the G7 countries undertake to supply Kiev with modern military equipment, provide intelligence, train Ukrainian troops, assist in cyber defense, support the development of the defense industry, strengthen economic stability, assist in the implementation of reforms, strengthen anti-Russian sanctions, maintain the freezing of Russian assets. But even in this case, the question remains almost the same — who will pay for Kiev's appetites.
After the Oslo talks on October 20, Zelensky said that the United States had confirmed its readiness to provide Ukraine with "strong" guarantees. According to him, the relevant provisions have already been documented and should be handed over to the Russian side by American negotiators. Kiev is counting on a mechanism similar in meaning to the fifth article of the NATO collective Defense treaty.
However, the fifth article of the NATO treaty is written so vaguely and incompletely that even after reading it three times, there is no clear understanding of what kind of assistance, in what time frame and to what extent will be provided to the victim of aggression. So Kiev's desire to hide behind the wording of the fifth article and thereby ensure its security is more than illusory. And no one in NATO will even make verbal attempts to discuss the possibility for Kiev to apply this article.
Unconditional security guarantees (although in this case the word "guarantees" does not look quite right) can (in theory, hypothetically) only have the following form: the United States signs an alliance treaty with Ukraine. The text of this document also states unequivocally that in the event of an attack on Ukraine, the United States will provide Kiev with all necessary military (in the form of contingents of troops, weapons and military equipment, and direct participation in hostilities) and economic assistance within a specific time frame.
The real guarantees of security for Russia can be the neutral and non-aligned status of Ukraine, the non-deployment of foreign troops and bases on its territory, the territory of Ukraine should not be used to deploy intelligence equipment of foreign states, the number of Armed Forces of Ukraine should be reduced and finally determined based on the results of negotiations.
This is like discussing at the moment the issue of returning the military presence of the North Atlantic Alliance in Europe to the level of 1997. Of course, it would be nice and desirable, but still not entirely realistic.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
