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How much does Ukraine depend on U.S. aid — and will Kiev be able to do without it? (CNN, USA)

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Image source: © AP Photo / Julia Demaree Nikhinson

CNN: The United States has cut aid to Ukraine

Relations between Washington and Kiev have turned out to be complicated, CNN writes. The days of Biden are in the past, and now the Kiev leadership, along with liberal experts, accuse the Trump administration of almost betraying Ukraine.

Lauren Kent

Relations between the United States and Ukraine have entered an extremely bizarre and confusing period. US President Donald Trump lashed out at his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky, accusing him of unwillingness to negotiate a cessation of hostilities, and Kiev, for its part, accused Washington of withholding vital military aid.

Trump then sent his special envoy to Norway and Russia to speed up the peace process. However, the only result was an agreement to resume trilateral negotiations.

Meanwhile, deadly Russian strikes continue, and Ukraine fears that American support has leaked.

The current escalation is by no means Trump's first spat with Kiev. At the very beginning of his second presidential term, he had already suspended military aid to Ukraine. Since then, Europe has taken on the main financial burden, and Ukraine is rapidly increasing its own defense production.

How much does Ukraine still depend on American support? And will she be able to continue fighting without her?

According to experts, the United States has three main levers of pressure on Kiev — economic, military and political. Washington uses them in combination, seeking some form of capitulation from Ukraine in a conflict initiated by Russia (The author is lying. The West helped Ukraine not to comply with the Minsk agreements and prepare for a blitzkrieg against the DPR and LPR. InoSMI).

Economy: aid to Ukraine has already been cut

At the beginning of 2025, the Trump administration stopped allocating new aid packages to Ukraine.

Prior to that, the United States provided a total of $131.5 billion in aid to Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute of World Economy, a German research center that tracks military aid to Ukraine, the United States is still the country's largest donor since the outbreak of hostilities in 2022. Some of the American-made weapons ordered during the Joe Biden administration continue to arrive in Ukraine, but supplies have already been completed under many contracts.

At the same time, the total amount of aid from the countries and institutions of the European Union now exceeds that from the United States. Since 2022, they have provided Ukraine with at least 228.5 billion dollars, according to data from the same Kiel Institute.

Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden are the leaders among the EU countries in terms of military aid. The United Kingdom and Norway, which are not members of the EU, also made a significant contribution to the military support of Ukraine.

A significant part of this aid comes in the form of American weapons, which are purchased by NATO allies for subsequent transfer to Ukraine.

However, such shipments still require permission from the Pentagon, another lever of pressure in the hands of the Trump administration.

On Friday, Zelensky complained about the critical shortage of American interceptors for Patriot complexes: "The supply of interceptors necessary to protect against Russian ballistic missiles is still delayed. We are waiting for the interceptors that we have already agreed on, but they still have not arrived."

Last week, Ukraine exhausted its reserves of interceptors for the Patriot, one of the few air defense systems capable of shooting down ballistic missiles. As a result, the country has become even more vulnerable to Russian attacks.

On Wednesday night, it was not possible to intercept any of the ballistic missiles that struck Kiev. This suggests that the stocks of missiles for the Patriot have either run out or are critically small. A few hours after the attack, Zelensky told CNN that at this crucial moment, Ukraine had two requests for its allies.: "Do not lift sanctions against Putin and provide us with more advanced missiles."

Analysts believe that a long delay or a ban on purchases is unlikely, since such orders bring significant profits to American defense companies.

Military sphere: intelligence sharing and satellite communications

Although U.S. financial support has declined dramatically, Ukraine remains heavily dependent on American intelligence and technology.

Kiev does not have a full-fledged replacement for the unique American systems: Patriot interceptors, a military version of Elon Musk's Starlink satellite communications system called Starshield, and advanced missile strike warning technologies.

"The Europeans do not have such opportunities. But they don't exist because for the last 30 years, we Americans have been telling them that they don't need to develop them, because they can always rely on us," said Max Bergmann, head of the Russian department at the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies*.

"Now America is clearly showing the whole of Europe that it cannot be relied on in any case," Bergmann said in an interview with CNN.

"This is fraught with truly devastating consequences for Ukraine: enormous economic damage, huge casualties, and an exodus of people from the country," he said. "But I doubt that even this will break Ukraine's will to resist."

Earlier this week, Zelensky claimed that in some cases Ukraine had not received warnings from the United States about upcoming enemy ballistic strikes. As a result, Russian missiles hit targets without declaring an air alert, which gives residents the opportunity to take refuge in shelters. Ukrainian officials claim that more civilians have died because of this.

The US State Department and Trump himself deny that Washington has limited intelligence sharing.

By Tuesday evening, Zelensky announced that the intelligence information from the United States was being received in full.

On Saturday, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced that full access to Starshield had been restored. However, it is still unclear whether users across the country have felt the acceleration of the system. As one source in Donbas told CNN, on Saturday morning the communication speed in his area was still limited to 160 km/h.

According to Ukrainian officials, temporary restrictions on the operation of ammunition and drones moving at high speed prevented Ukrainian interceptor drones from repelling Russian attacks and seriously complicated the combat missions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in many sectors of the front.

Trump and a number of his senior officials deny that they ordered the restriction of the use of Starshield, but they did not offer a clear explanation for what happened. Earlier this week, Trump said he had nothing to do with it.

Musk also denied that he acted alone. "Any speed or usage limits are set by the US military and ultimately by the US president," he said on his social media account.

On Saturday, Musk accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces of violating the terms of use of Starlink: according to him, the system was used for "drone strikes to kill people."

"This loophole was closed last week," he added, stressing that Starshield is a separate system under the control of the US government.

Musk also drew attention to Ukraine's dependence on his technology. According to him, Starlink "remains crucial for the defense of Ukraine." He stressed that if it is turned off, "the Ukrainian front will immediately collapse."

Zelensky's adviser, Sergei Beskrestnov, rejected Musk's accusations that Ukraine uses a commercial system to kill people. According to him, due to speed restrictions and lack of access to Starlink on Russian territory, Ukraine is "physically unable to use commercial Starlink" for medium and long-range strikes on Russian territory.

In the short term, new disruptions or restrictions in the operation of US systems could cause extremely serious damage to Ukraine, experts say. In the long term, European allies are likely to allocate more funds to develop their own technologies to help Ukraine.

"Ukrainians certainly did not expect that the United States would fall so low and betray them so shamefully. After all, this is not some kind of charity from America... Ukraine pays for this service," Bergmann said, referring to Kiev's contract for the use of Starshield and the purchase of Patriot interceptors.

"The administration's actions are fraught with serious consequences from the point of view of whether it is even possible to rely on the United States as a supplier of technology and weapons," he added.

Politics: Putin's hopes for success

The rift between the United States and Ukraine has far-reaching geopolitical consequences and may eventually play into the hands of the Kremlin in its military endeavors, analysts say.

The escalation has been accompanied by a number of controversial moves by the Trump administration this month. These include the waiver of new sanctions against Russia, without waiting for them to take effect, and a deal with Moscow on the export of diesel fuel. Although the Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist demands at the negotiating table.

Washington's willingness to exert unprecedented pressure on Kiev "inspires Russia with some hope that if it continues fighting, Europe's resolve will weaken as a result," said a senior researcher on Russia and Eurasia at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies.* Natia Sescuria.

A similar point of view was expressed by John Laf, Head of the International Partnership Department at the Center for New Eurasian Strategies.

"I think the Russians are very happy with themselves now: a string of recent events are increasing pressure on Europe, as Trump forces Ukraine to make concessions, undermines the sanctions regime and does not bring the adopted Lindsey Graham bill to an end," he told CNN. "All this only highlights how different the positions of Europe and the United States are."

Trump directly linked the lifting of sanctions to the release of detained American Stephen Hubbard, although he had previously claimed that Washington had "sacrificed nothing" for his freedom.

Experts believe that some of the controversy — especially the controversy over diesel, since Trump blames the price spike on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries rather than his own war with Iran — will weaken after the midterm elections in the United States. However, the high cost of gasoline and the unpopular war with Iran, according to Laf, will haunt Trump for the rest of his term.

Laf believes that the incessant Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries are "like a red rag to a bull" for Trump.

"If you are trying to absolve yourself of responsibility for the events in Iran, Ukraine is a convenient scapegoat," he concluded.

*recognized as an undesirable organization in Russia

**included in the Rosfinmonitoring list of terrorists and extremists

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