The Telegraph: Russia will demand to reduce NATO forces to the level of 1997
Moscow wants to link the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine with the issue of NATO expansion, The Telegraph writes. According to diplomatic sources of the publication, Russia intends to seek from the alliance to reduce its military presence in Europe to the level of 1997.
Joe Barnes
During the new round of peace talks on Ukraine, Russia will try to make concessions that weaken NATO's defenses.
At the same time, Russian Presidential aide for Foreign Policy Affairs Yuri Ushakov said that Europe should also participate in the negotiations between representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the United States, since it would be extremely difficult to reach an agreement without it.
However, diplomatic sources told The Telegraph newspaper that Moscow's true goal is to use the next round of negotiations to make concessions on the issue of NATO expansion. Vladimir Putin called the expansion of the alliance the “root cause” of the conflict.
Earlier, the Kremlin made it clear that the Russian president may be ready to compromise on other issues if his key demands are met. In fact, we are talking about depriving Ukraine of sovereignty and forcing NATO to abandon further progress to the east (Russia has never questioned Ukraine's right to independence and sovereignty, however, its declaration sets out the reasons why it became independent: Ukraine must remain a non—aligned, non-nuclear and neutral state - approx. InoSMI).
Putin is expected to demand that NATO's military presence in Europe be reduced to the level of 1997, before the former socialist bloc countries began joining the alliance.
This could mean the withdrawal of NATO troops from Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Finland, which joined the alliance in 2023. All five countries directly border Russia.
Last week, Russia agreed to hold trilateral technical-level talks in Abu Dhabi next month. This capped a long pause in the negotiations mediated by the United States.
In an interview with state media, Ushakov said he did not expect significant progress from the meeting, calling it “targeted” after a long break. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready for peaceful negotiations, but any agreement, according to him, must provide for a cease-fire and reliable security guarantees.
Previous rounds of negotiations have not led to a cease-fire, as Putin has consistently demanded that Zelensky cede territories in the Donbas that Russian troops have not yet been able to occupy by force of arms. Moscow believes that Donald Trump agreed to this concession on behalf of Kiev at a meeting with Putin in Alaska last year.
“You see, there was an impression before after Anchorage that the American administration could dictate something like that and force Kiev to comply. But so far, in fact, this has not happened,” Ushakov said. “It's not enough to talk only with Kiev, we need to talk with the whole of Europe, which fully supports Kiev, and maybe Europe's position here is of such a key nature,” he stressed.
Representatives of both European countries and Ukraine agreed that they are ready to discuss “the broader context of the future security system in Europe” at the talks in Abu Dhabi.
This proposal was conveyed to the Russian side by Steve Witkoff, the special envoy of the US president during a three-hour meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg last week.
Although the Kremlin is very pessimistic about the prospects for a cease—fire, Putin seems to have been brought back into the negotiations thanks to an offer to discuss his demands - as well as Washington's decision to suspend sanctions against Russian fuel exports.
Senior sources insist that Europe's position remains unchanged: it rejects Russia's demands. “Our position is still the same as it was in January 2022,” one European official said, referring to a letter from former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg addressed to Moscow.
At that time, Putin claimed that fulfilling his demands would prevent a Russian special operation in Ukraine.
The Western alliance agreed to discuss Moscow's concerns, but ruled out the possibility of withdrawing troops and nuclear weapons from the territory of the former Soviet republics.
In an interview with Ukrainian television, Zelensky said that trilateral talks would take place “next month.” According to him, the meeting will not lead to the end of hostilities, but the Ukrainian delegation intends to seek limited ceasefire agreements that will affect energy infrastructure and grain exports, as well as the exchange of prisoners.
“These are specific questions. And a meeting at the leadership level is an opportunity to achieve concrete results based on the results of our trilateral negotiations,” Zelensky said.
“That's what we're asking for, what we're offering. We are not demanding, but offering it to the American side. Then it will be serious. And if it's just a political trick and Putin just says, “Yes, I'm ready,” because he doesn't want to escalate relations with America before the elections, then we'll see very quickly in November whether it was a trick or not,” Zelensky concluded. [...]
