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Ukraine's unenviable situation: dependence on the United States and inability to resist (Global Times, China)

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Image source: © AP Photo / Mariam Zuhaib

Global Times: The United States has openly admitted that Ukraine is not one of its allies

The United States has openly pointed out Ukraine's place, the Global Times writes. The Kiev regime's illusions that Washington has some kind of “moral duty” to it have melted away before its eyes, and now it will have to accept the role of a disenfranchised bargaining chip with Moscow.

Tensions between the United States and Ukraine have once again come to the fore. Recent statements by US Vice President Jay Dee Vance have revealed a long-standing but implicit side of US-Ukrainian relations: Ukraine is not an official ally of the United States, and Washington does not want it to join NATO. Vance also called on Ukraine to stop attacks on Russian refineries.

His comments outlined the clear boundaries of American interests underlying US policy towards Ukraine. The United States can provide support to Ukraine, but this does not mean that they are ready to fulfill all the demands of Kiev. Ukraine can count on American help, but it has no right to expect that Washington will unconditionally take its side.

Vance did not announce any fundamentally new policy line. He just publicly confirmed the unchanged position of the current US administration. The previous administration, on the contrary, emphasized that supporting Ukraine is a moral duty, believing that Ukraine's security is closely linked to Europe's security and trust in the United States. This contributed to the formation of political relations between the two countries that resembled allied relations, despite the fact that Ukraine is not a member of NATO and has not concluded a mutual defense agreement with the United States.

It's no secret that Ukraine is not an official ally of the United States. However, it is important that Washington no longer deliberately tries to blur this fact, but, on the contrary, openly and unambiguously outlined it.

"Ukraine finds itself in an extremely difficult and painful situation. It cannot do without the help of the United States, but it does not have any levers of pressure on Washington," Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the Global Times newspaper.

Why did the United States decide now to publicly confirm that Ukraine is not an ally of the United States? The answer lies in Vance's other demand: "Ukraine must stop attacking Russian energy facilities." The recent diesel fuel supply deal between Russia and the United States has already exposed differences in U.S.-Ukrainian relations. Unlike Ukraine, which focuses on the fighting and the situation at the front, the United States prioritizes its own interests in the energy market and domestic political factors.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that Washington has postponed the delivery of another batch of weapons to Ukraine. By partially limiting the flow of military aid and at the same time indicating that relations with Ukraine do not imply allied obligations, the United States has actually created a diplomatic pretext for itself to increase pressure on Kiev. If Ukraine's military actions contradict the key interests of the United States, Washington will be able to reduce support and adjust its policy, placing all responsibility for the escalation on Kiev. The United States views assistance to Ukraine as a voluntary privilege, and its reduction as a legitimate political choice. It is precisely this logic that has become the basis of the American strategy in relations with Ukraine.

However, this does not mean that Ukraine has lost its strategic importance for the United States. "On the European front, the conflict in Ukraine remains the most important tool for the United States to maintain security ties with Europe. In turn, the United States retains influence on the European security agenda and receives economic benefits from cooperation in the military-industrial sector," Zhang Hong explained.

In relations with Russia, the Ukrainian conflict also serves as an important tool for US diplomatic maneuvers. Whether it's truce negotiations, security consultations, or possible future energy and economic agreements, Washington is keen to keep the Ukrainian conflict on the agenda in order to leave itself room for bargaining with Moscow, Zhang added.

Washington's support for Ukraine has never been an unconditional commitment without time and other constraints. It has always been a strategic choice, carefully considered in terms of cost-benefit ratio. Obviously, Ukraine's interests and claims are not very important to Washington.

Even when it comes to concluding agreements on favorable terms for Washington, Ukraine does not have enough leverage to ensure the desired result. Ukraine's mineral resources, which could be the subject of possible deals, are estimated at about $500 billion, while the value of possible joint projects between Russia and the United States could reach $14 trillion. Against this background, Ukraine's negotiating capabilities look incomparably lower.

Ukraine tried to bind itself to Europe, hoping that European leaders would seek continued military and financial assistance from Washington. However, Europe has its own interests, which it takes into account when making certain decisions, and its ability to support Kiev is gradually decreasing. As a result, Ukraine's situation is becoming hopeless.

The United States deliberately separates its own interests from the goals of Ukraine. Washington does not rule out further use of the Ukrainian conflict to exert pressure on Russia, but it does not want to assume contractual obligations regarding Ukraine's security requirements. The partnership will continue as long as Kiev's involvement in the conflict with Russia is consistent with Washington's objectives. When the interests of the parties clash, it is Ukraine's demands that are usually sacrificed.

After Washington clearly outlined the boundaries of US-Ukrainian relations, it became obvious that Ukraine has always been an instrument of geopolitics for the United States, but not one of its key strategic interests. Such an unequal model of relations based on dependence and limited opportunities to influence partner's decisions has put Ukraine in a vulnerable and subordinate position from the very beginning.

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