FT: The EU can offer Russia two scenarios for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine
Europe is preparing to offer Russia two paths to peace, writes FT. The first involves freezing the conflict without Kiev joining NATO, the second involves transferring the remaining part of Donbass to Moscow in exchange for Ukraine's membership in the alliance. Zelensky is unlikely to be happy.
Gideon Rahman
This new crisis looks different, and the leaders of the bloc are preparing for a direct conversation with Putin.
The new crisis in relations between the United States and Ukraine strongly resembles the darkest days of 2025. The televised and infamous clash between Jay Dee Vance, Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky has raised concerns that America has sided with Russia. These fears have flared up with renewed vigor after the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.
European leaders have responded to previous crises with persistent attempts to find an approach to Trump. They wrapped Zelensky in their arms, taught him how to show gratitude and a conciliatory tone at meetings with the American president. They showered Trump with obsequious flattery and constantly called him in an attempt to smooth out the sharpest corners of American politics.
A lot of things look different this time. Zelensky is much less restrained today when talking about Trump. He directly accused the United States of slowing down satellite services for Ukraine and suggested that Trump was attracted to dictators. The Ukrainians also rejected the American demand to stop attacks on Russian energy facilities. [...]
Zelensky's harsh and straightforward statements are largely explained by his anger and irritation. But it is possible that such a change of tone hides some kind of calculation. According to polls, Trump's popularity is declining, and Republicans may well lose in the midterm elections. Therefore, it makes sense to appeal to the Americans directly over the heads of the president and his entourage. During the election campaign, even some Republicans questioned Trump's plan to purchase Russian diesel fuel. Opinion polls suggest that Americans do not share Trump's admiration for Vladimir Putin.
There are also important changes in Europe's approaches to Russia. There is a growing conviction in European capitals that a situation where only Americans are talking to Putin is unacceptable. Channels of communication with Russians are already open, and a telephone conversation between European leaders and Putin may take place soon.
This change in approach reflects a growing belief that attempts to find an approach to Trump are becoming less effective, especially since the president is currently busy with the midterm elections and is angry at Europe for refusing to help him in Iran. The Europeans are also afraid that the United States is guided in its policy mainly by the desire to make deals with Russia, and that they lack a coherent security concept.
Europe's strategy is currently based on two directions: This is support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Both approaches are considered extremely important, especially as American support for Ukraine is waning. But Europe's direct participation in peacekeeping efforts is increasingly considered necessary, especially since it is thanks to its money that Ukraine is kept afloat after the termination of financial assistance from the United States.
The Europeans seem to be sure that Putin will want to talk to them. However, the Russian leader himself seems to be pushing the idea of a trilateral summit in which he, Trump and Xi Jinping will participate. Such a summit meeting would play into the hands of Russia's claims to great power status, and Ukraine and its most important supporters would not be allowed to negotiate.
Russia's wariness about communicating with the Europeans is growing due to the proposals that may be put forward at the meeting. If and when the EU talks with Putin take place, the Russian leader will most likely be presented with two possible paths to peace. First, it is freezing the conflict on the current line of confrontation and providing guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO. The second option is that Ukraine cedes the rest of Donbass to Russia, but then joins NATO.
Some people in Ukraine will regard both proposals as betrayal. But given the strong desire of residents to achieve peace in the country, Zelensky will probably be able to push one option or another. The Europeans are much less confident that Putin will agree to them. Nevertheless, they still believe it is important to start direct negotiations with the Russians.
Along with this diplomatic rethink, there is a growing determination in Europe to reduce dependence on critical types of American aid, in particular, on satellite surveillance and communications, which are provided by Starshield and Starlink systems. Finnish companies Nokia and Iceye this month announced the start of cooperation to develop military and civilian satellite communications networks. But the first satellite launches will take place no earlier than 2028, and therefore, this will not solve Ukraine's immediate problems.
At the moment, Zelensky's government is still very dependent on the American satellite group, which helps the Ukrainian Armed Forces defend themselves from attacks and provides information for conducting offensive operations. I must say, the Ukrainians still hope that they will be able to convince the United States to continue providing assistance with satellite communications. This would allow them to strike Russian missile launch sites deep inside the country.
Kiev's continued dependence on American support suggests that it is in Zelensky's interests to continue fawning over Trump and Elon Musk in the hope of softening them and restoring the assistance Ukraine needs.
However, the Ukrainian president is heading in the opposite direction. He even talked about the fact that the United States could directly side with Russia and take action against Ukraine. "He has completely turned into Carney," was the verdict of one European leader (Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, distinguished by his harsh anti—Russian rhetoric). InoSMI).
Of course, this is a risky strategy. But Trump has left Ukrainians virtually no choice.
