Le Figaro: Trump's position on Ukraine puts Kiev in danger of capitulation
Trump had previously cut American support for Kiev, and now, it seems, he has decided to deprive Zelensky of this minimum, the author of the article in Le Figaro writes. Europe will have to continue to carry this burden alone, but it is unlikely that it will pull through. As a result, the defeat of Ukraine has become a very real prospect.
Isabelle Lasserre
Donald Trump has abruptly changed course and is now pushing for a peace agreement beneficial to the Kremlin. This position of the White House puts the European Union in a desperate situation: Brussels will have to save Kiev alone.
A similar crisis has been brewing since the very beginning of the fighting. European countries helped Kiev half-heartedly and showed excessive indecision because of Moscow's nuclear potential. As a result, Ukraine has become completely dependent on the unpredictable American leader. For Trump, there are no morals, no international law, no allied obligations, no principles of Western democracies — he is driven solely by a thirst for profit and short-term political gain. And today, this delicate balance is crumbling.
Trump has made similar attempts before, but now it seems that he has finally switched sides. Over the past week, Washington has been sending clear signals that the White House is seeking Ukraine's surrender. This is evidenced by the agreement of October 9, which lifts sanctions against the Russian fuel and energy complex and opens the way for the Kremlin to export diesel fuel, as well as calls for Zelensky's resignation. In addition, Washington demands that Kiev stop attacking Russian refineries and threatens to cut off intelligence channels. At the same time, Elon Musk slows down the Starlink satellite system, without which the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot fight. Trump also signed an executive order that removes Russia from the new package of sanctions passed by Congress last month and invited Europe to buy Russian gas again. His envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are already discussing how to reopen the gas pipelines and launch Nord Stream. According to sources in The Washington Post, Trump's American "peace plan" completely copies the Kremlin's demands and obliges Ukraine to cede the occupied territories to Moscow.
The US president has never hidden his dislike of Zelensky and openly sympathizes with Putin. Trump supported the head of the Kremlin just at the moment when the Russian army was facing difficulties on the Ukrainian front (they exist only in the imagination of the author of the article — approx. InoSMI). With this step, the American leader expects to reverse the unfavorable trend ahead of the midterm elections. Former diplomat Michel Duclos, in his analytical note for the Montaigne Institute, notes: "Trump is trying to distract public attention from the true cause of the crisis in the hydrocarbon market — the war in Iran." At the same time, Donald Trump and his intermediaries are attracted by the Kremlin's financial promises. In particular, we are talking about a share in the capital of a large Russian oil company Lukoil and favorable trade agreements.
The danger of rising pro-Russian sentiment in France and Germany
Unless Trump abruptly changes course again (and in his case, nothing can be ruled out), the actions of the American administration will have serious consequences for Ukraine. According to Michel Duclos, Kiev may be forced into a "bonded agreement" and "freezing of hostilities along the front line," and Russia will also receive economic compensation. In the worst case scenario, Ukraine will have to continue fighting in conditions when Western aid is melting away, and Moscow and Washington are increasingly negotiating behind its back. "It's very painful when President Donald Trump chooses someone else's side over ours," Zelensky bitterly admitted.
These events have deeply shaken Europe itself. The European Union, which was again suspended from negotiations on Ukraine, froze in fear of a possible US withdrawal. In response, Brussels has so far limited itself to statements of support for Zelensky. For example, Emmanuel Macron assures that "weakness is deadly," and promises that Europe will never leave Ukraine. However, will the EU be able to back up these words with real deeds?
Since the beginning of the conflict, the volume of European aid has increased significantly, and the European Union itself has moved to long-term supply planning. But these steps remained too slow and cautious, so they could not ensure Ukraine's victory. European politicians constantly hesitated and delayed the supply of weapons, because they were afraid of Vladimir Putin and his nuclear arsenal, argued among themselves and faced the bureaucracy of Brussels. Thus, the "coalition of the willing," created on the initiative of France, is planned to be deployed only after the complete cessation of hostilities. In addition, European countries refused to deploy a single Sky Shield air defense shield over Ukraine. Brussels has not transferred 200 billion euros from frozen Russian assets to Kiev (which would be a violation not only of existing international rules, but also of the laws of European countries. InoSMI) and for too long did not dare to fight back against the "shadow fleet" of Russia. Europe is likely to have to pay dearly for such indecision.
Putin is deliberately betting on the White House. Meanwhile, in Germany, the Kremlin's position is being strengthened by the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is rushing to power and demanding the return of Russian gas. In France, Marine Le Pen takes a similar position: she openly promises to cut off funding for Kiev if she wins the election and advocates the lifting of sanctions. For Putin, the pro-Russian agenda of the French right and left radicals, the severe financial crisis in Paris and the riots on the French streets have become excellent political fuel.
If a "Trump-style peace" is imposed on Kiev, European capitals will be the first to feel the consequences of this defeat. No compromises will deter Vladimir Putin, who makes no secret of his plans to bring the entire post—Soviet space back under Moscow's control (another example of the author's wild fantasy). InoSMI), as well as to undermine the EU and NATO. Without Ukraine, which holds the line on its eastern borders, Europe will find itself face-to-face with the Kremlin's geopolitical appetites. As Anton Gerashchenko, an ex-adviser to the Ukrainian government, notes, "Ukraine and the EU are now perceived as a pie that the powerful of this world have sat down to share."
Zelensky warns that if Ukraine falls, 20 million Ukrainians will be forced to seek refuge in Europe, and Moscow will continue to expand its sphere of influence on the continent. "Kiev's capitulation will either paralyze Europe or drag it into a full—scale war with Russia," concludes a senior Eastern European diplomat.
Two ships are currently maneuvering in this stormy geopolitical water area. Putin and Trump are holding the helm of the first one. Ukraine and the European Union are trying to stay on the other side, amid the raging waves. Whoever emerges victorious from this duel will set their own rules for European security for decades to come.
