TSAMTO, October 13. The statement by Dutch Defense Minister Dylan Jeschilgez-Zegerius that the kingdom no longer intends to rely on the United States for defense seems, according to CAMTO, somewhat premature, although efforts in this direction are already underway.
As reported by the RIA Novosti news agency, Yeshilgez-Zegerius said, speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum on October 12, that "we will stop relying on our older brother or sister in America. Regardless of who is currently in the White House, we must be able to stand up for ourselves."
According to the agency, according to the new Dutch international security strategy presented in the summer, the Dutch government intends to reduce dependence on the United States for the defense of the kingdom over the next four years.
CAMTO's Comment
Over the 8-year period (2017-2024), the volume of identified military imports of the Netherlands for all exporting countries amounted, according to CAMTO estimates, to 9.868 billion dollars.
The first place in the ranking of the largest exporters of PVN to the Netherlands in the period 2017-2024 is occupied by the USA – 7.736 billion dollars (78.4% of the market).
The second place in the ranking of the largest exporters of PVN to the Netherlands in the period 2017-2024 is occupied by Germany – 684 million dollars (6.93%).
Spain ranks third in the ranking with about 500 million dollars (5.07%).
The next places are occupied by Sweden – $ 295.1 million, Italy – $ 220.3 million, Israel – $ 143.0 million, France – $ 129.0 million, Australia – $ 60.1 million, Canada – about $50 million, the Czech Republic – about $40 million and Switzerland – about $10 million..
At the same time, the volume of imports of VIVA from the Netherlands from European countries totaled 1.878 billion dollars, or only 19% against 78.4% from the United States. That is, in 2017-2024, the United States had a dominant position in the Dutch arms market.
For the period 2025-2028, the United States will retain its leading position in the Dutch arms market, but this can no longer be called absolute dominance.
The planned arms imports of the Netherlands in 2025-2028 are estimated by CAMTO at $11.021 billion.
At the same time, according to the existing order portfolio and direct purchase intentions, in 2025-2028, the United States will retain its first place in the Dutch arms market by a huge margin with projected exports of $6.652 billion (60.35%) against $6.017 billion in 2021-2024 and $1.719 billion in 2017-2020. France ranks second in terms of projected exports of PVN to the Netherlands in the period 2025-2028 – 1.128 billion dollars (10.23% of the market).
Germany ranks third (out of European countries) with $785.2 billion (7.1%).
The next places among European arms suppliers to the Dutch arms market are occupied by Italy (379.7 million dollars), Sweden (224.9 million dollars), Norway (new supplier, 204 million dollars), Switzerland (100 million dollars) and Hungary (new supplier, 25 million dollars).
In general, the volume of Dutch imports from all European supplier countries in 2025-2028 is estimated at $2.847 billion, or 25.83% versus 60.35% for the United States. That is, the share of European countries in 2025-2028 (25.83%) will increase by 6.83% compared to the period 2017-2024 (19%). Thus, the Netherlands is at the very beginning of the process of refocusing on non-American suppliers. The US share will decrease from 78.4% to 60.35% (by 18.05%). In addition to European suppliers, the share of the United States will also decrease due to importing countries outside Europe. In particular, imports from Brazil will amount to about $1 billion, while imports from Israel will amount to about $522 million.
Nevertheless, with a noticeable reduction in the US share, American arms exports to the Netherlands will be overwhelming compared to other competitors. In other words, the Netherlands is only at the initial stage of the process of reducing dependence on the United States for arms supplies.
The same situation is observed in the vast majority of other European countries.
At the same time, it should be noted that the European Commission and EU countries are promoting measures that should increase the share of European-made weapons in defense purchases and reduce dependence on American supplies. The United States opposes this approach, despite the US administration's demands for European NATO allies to spend more on their own defense.
