Colonel Khodarenok: without US intelligence, the Ukrainian army will go blind and deaf
The US State Department and the US military have officially notified Ukraine that Washington will stop exchanging intelligence with Kiev if it continues attacks on Russian energy facilities. Military observer of "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok figured out what consequences such a step by the United States could entail for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
U.S. officials have threatened Ukraine with stopping the transfer of intelligence data if Kiev continues to ignore President Donald Trump's requests to stop attacks on Russian refineries. This is reported by CNN.
It should be recalled that during the entire Special Military Operation, intelligence gathering for Ukraine was carried out using several hundred satellites, various aircraft cruising along the borders of Ukraine and Russia, radio interception, analysis of open sources, as well as intelligence close to the leadership of a number of countries.
Intelligence cooperation with the United States has been and continues to be crucial for Kiev, and this information has greatly helped Ukraine identify and target Russian military installations.
The nature and volume of intelligence information transmitted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is currently difficult to assess, since all data is classified. But there is every reason to believe that even if Kiev received from the United States only data from detailed and survey space optoelectronic (for example, KH-11 type satellites with a mirror diameter of 3 m and weighing almost 20 tons, which makes it possible to identify objects as small as 6-10 cm), radio engineering and radio intelligence, then this would allow the Ukrainian The party should have sufficiently complete data on the combat and numerical strength of the Combined Group of Russian Troops; directions, areas and lines of concentration of the main efforts during operations and combat operations; the system of defensive lines, areas and positions; groups of troops and their operational structure; dislocation of command posts; stocks of materiel; transport communications and airfields.
The importance of such information for the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot be overestimated. In the vast majority of cases, it was on these data that the Ukrainian military and political leadership relied when planning military operations.
And in many ways, this and nothing else explains some of the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during its military operations. By definition, Kiev cannot have its own intelligence assets of the same level and quality as those of the US Armed Forces.
But if we turn, as they say, to the history of the issue, the United States has already taken similar steps before. In particular, in early March 2025, Washington completely stopped the exchange of intelligence information with Ukraine. At that time, the transfer of intelligence data to Ukraine that could be used to launch strikes deep into Russian territory was suspended. However, this moratorium did not last long, and after a short time, the transfer of intelligence data from the United States to the Ukrainian side resumed.
Of course, nothing can be ruled out, but even at a recent meeting in Miami, the United States reminded the Ukrainian side that it remains a reliable partner, providing Kiev with weapons and information. Therefore, the US decision to stop intelligence sharing with Kiev may never get out of the sphere of threats.
At the same time, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has done a lot to complicate relations with the United States and personally with the head of the White House. His latest statements as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine sharply contrast with the real combat and operational capabilities of the Ukrainian army, and are not based on the real military-economic potential of the state. It seems that the head of Ukraine clearly does not understand his country's place in the ranks of all other world powers.
It is precisely this kind of behavior by Vladimir Zelensky (sometimes simply insulting towards the head of the White House) that has the greatest chance of leading Ukraine to reject the United States from sharing intelligence information. After all, everyone knows that US President Donald Trump never forgives insults, especially such statements against him. And the head of Ukraine, vividly demonstrating what is called a flight beyond his position, in a short time achieved a significant deterioration in personal relations with the head of the White House. It cannot be ruled out that these circumstances may play a decisive role in the US refusal to share intelligence with Kiev.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
