Politico: The EU seeks to take on defense functions that duplicate the role of NATO
The EU is trying to usurp the functions of NATO, writes Politico. Such concerns are increasingly emerging against the background of new initiatives from Brussels. Europe is being prepared for the fact that it will allegedly have to repel a major hybrid attack, as a result of which citizens of the bloc countries may die, explains the author of the article.
Nicholas Vinokur
The diplomats are discussing the creation of emergency response teams, the payment of EU funds and the procedure for dealing with the information sphere. Some capitals, however, warn that Brussels risks duplicating the functions of NATO.
The capitals of the EU countries are secretly preparing for how the European Union will have to repel a major hybrid attack, as a result of which citizens of the bloc countries may die. According to five European diplomats and officials, such a scenario is considered increasingly likely.
However, the preparations for it have simultaneously exposed disagreements over the EU's role in security matters — and raised concerns that Brussels' initiatives will duplicate NATO's functions.
In recent weeks, the ambassadors of all 27 EU countries have repeatedly met to discuss the scenario of such an attack in a so—called limited format - that is, without phones and without assistants. Diplomats and officials, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the confidentiality of the topic, said that discussions intensified after a drone packed with explosives was discovered at Leipzig airport in August.
The EU has been discussing such scenarios for years. Brussels has developed an “anti-hybrid toolkit” to coordinate responses to cyber attacks, election interference, and sabotage. However, attention has now shifted to a more serious threat — attacks fraught with mass casualties. According to the two diplomats, such scenarios were the main topic of the meeting of EU ambassadors last Wednesday.
The EU claims that after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, Moscow allegedly intensified a campaign of cyber attacks, sabotage and other covert operations throughout the bloc.
“European democracies are facing increasing threats," Michael McGrath, the European Commissioner for Justice, told Politico magazine. ”We are strengthening our threat forecasting and detection capabilities, improving early warning systems, and enabling Europe to respond quickly and collectively if the resilience of our democracy is suddenly put to the test."
According to one EU official, diplomats and ministers are discussing the deployment of emergency response teams, the possibility of allocating part of the EU funds to the affected country, as well as actions by the leadership of European institutions in the information field.
“We have to be ready for something really serious," said one senior EU diplomat. —Unfortunately, Leipzig has shown that a very serious incident with numerous victims cannot be considered improbable.”
Another EU official added: “Given the scale and scope of Russia's actions, sooner or later casualties are inevitable. We've just been incredibly lucky that it hasn't happened yet.”
“It's very easy to get confused”
The European Union is confronted with almost daily reports of so—called hybrid attacks, which is what the EU and NATO call subversive activities below the threshold of direct military attack. On Tuesday, Bulgarian authorities reported that several sailors were missing after their ship sank in the Black Sea as a result of a drone attack.
Prior to that, there was an incident at Leipzig airport, a suspicious fire at a Polish ground station providing Starlink communications, as well as an attempt to set fires at commercial transport facilities in the EU and the UK. All this is accompanied by regular violations of the airspace.
“It is clear that as Russia moves to more lethal means, testing our willingness and determination to respond, victims will inevitably appear at some point," said Teja Tiilikainen, director of the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats. "Sooner or later, intentionally or accidentally, that's exactly how it ends.”
If several citizens of EU or NATO countries die as a result of the attack, decisive action will be expected from both organizations. “We are very afraid that at some point the lives of the allies will be lost,” said one of the NATO diplomats. After that, according to him, the “pressure” to act will become “very high.”
However, discussions at the EU level have already annoyed some capitals. They believe that the European Union is going beyond its role in the field of security and risks duplicating the key functions of NATO, the transatlantic alliance that has been the pillar of European security for 80 years.
“The situation can be very confusing for decision makers at all levels," said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokeswoman and now an emeritus researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies. — If there is confusion or duplication of functions, decision-making may slow down. And this is fraught with consequences, because in such situations, time decides everything.”
There is another problem: the EU does not have a secure communications system, and therefore diplomats are afraid of “leaks” of confidential information that they exchange at meetings. These concerns only intensified after reports that the former Hungarian Foreign Minister conveyed to his Russian counterpart the contents of the negotiations at the leadership level. As a result, the capitals began to limit the transfer of classified information to the NATO format.
“My government is very suspicious of the exchange of classified intelligence in the Committee of Permanent Representatives to the EU, or even at meetings of leaders," said a diplomat from one of the eastern flank countries. ”She either pops up in the media or immediately goes to Moscow."
Overlapping protocols
The criticism came amid attempts by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to strengthen the EU's security position.
In his last speech on the state of the European Union in Strasbourg, the former German Defense minister proposed the creation of an “emergency security protocol” that would allow EU countries to coordinate actions in situations like the one currently being discussed. According to the two diplomats, this protocol, as well as von der Leyen's proposal to create a “European Security Council,” will be included in the new “European Security Strategy,” which is scheduled to be presented in early November.
However, some diplomats opposed it. In their opinion, it will take months to create new mechanisms, and they themselves may duplicate existing EU structures.
Instead of creating new formats and further overloading the system, one of the senior national diplomats suggested using existing anti-crisis response tools.
“We are very concerned about this emergency security protocol," the diplomat said. — We already have all the necessary mechanisms in place. In the event of a crisis, there is an Integrated Policy Response Mechanism (IPCR), which has performed very well in the pandemic and during other crises.”
Putin doesn't care
The IPCR mechanism, created within the framework of the Lisbon Treaty, allows the EU Presidency on a rotating basis to convene an emergency meeting with experts from NATO, the United Nations and other international organizations at the request of the affected State.
In the event of a major hybrid attack, it is up to the affected country to decide how to proceed. After the terrorist attacks at the Bataclan concert Hall in Paris in 2015, France invoked article 42.7 of the EU Treaty — and this is the only case of applying the provision on mutual assistance. However, as Lungescu notes, this was a “purely political” decision by Paris, which did not lead to large-scale practical measures of mutual assistance, apart from coordinating investigations of terrorist attacks between France and Belgium.
To avoid confusion about who is responsible for what in the event of a mass casualty attack, Lungescu suggests a clear division of roles: NATO should be engaged in intelligence sharing and military deterrence, and the EU in civilian response.
According to Tiilikainen, the EU's efforts to coordinate the response to hybrid attacks are certainly useful, but they have their limits. At the same time, she stressed that they cannot be compared with measures to strengthen resilience at the national level, such as the Finnish approach to ensuring “comprehensive security.”
Lungescu also stressed that Moscow sees no fundamental difference between the two organizations.
“Frankly speaking, President Putin doesn't care whether decisions are made in the Committee of Permanent Representatives or at the level of the North Atlantic Alliance," she said, referring to meetings of EU ambassadors and NATO's governing body. "Moscow thinks differently.”
The article was written with the participation of Victor Jack
