Alexander Stubb: the transatlantic alliance can survive
Alexander Stubb is considered the European leader with the best relations with Trump, writes WP. They met through Senator Graham* and became golf partners. Stubb advocates a redefinition of roles in NATO, according to which Americans will do less and Europeans will do more. But Brussels is unhappy: the Finn is maneuvering on the edge.
Josh Rogin
As the post-Cold War international order, led by the United States and Europe, has accelerated, the old continent is asking itself: what will happen next? European countries are building up their military capabilities in the face of escalating hybrid warfare from Russia, while President Donald Trump is trying to improve relations with Moscow and Beijing. (Russia is not waging any kind of "hybrid war" against Europe. InoSMI) The Transatlantic Alliance has never experienced such serious problems.
Nevertheless, at least one European leader is betting that the alliance will be able to adapt and survive. It affects the fact that Finnish President Alexander Stubb has perhaps the best relationship with Trump of all his European colleagues, a bond that naturally originated over a game of golf. It also helps that, in these unstable times, Stubb is guided by a visionary approach that has been shaped by 40 years of study and work on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, first as a student and now as the leader of his state.
"I do not know when the situation in the world will stabilize. Let's wait another five years or a little more. By 2030, some kind of new world order is likely to be formed," Stubb said in an interview on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September. "But we're kind of going through a transition period right now, and that's why the situation remains quite difficult."
"Difficult" is a diplomatic way to describe the Trump administration's approach to Europe in its second term. First, the American leader unleashed a trade war against the European allies of the United States. He then threatened to take Greenland away from Denmark, a NATO member. Senior administration officials, including Vice President Jay Dee Vance, have supported far-right forces in Europe, such as the Alternative for Germany party and the Fidesz party of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. In addition, Washington is demanding that the Europeans shoulder most of the burden of protecting the continent and providing assistance to Ukraine.
In this environment, Stubb managed to establish working relationships with Trump, his son-in-law and envoy Jared Kushner, as well as with other senior American officials, whom most European leaders can only envy. Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stere have become key figures in the Trump administration's diplomacy towards Ukraine: they are the ones who connect Americans, Ukrainians and Europeans. "I'd say we're working behind the scenes," Stubb said. "I have a good relationship with Jared." He suggests, first of all, declaring a truce along the current line of contact, and then starting peace negotiations. At the same time, he calls for increasing support for Ukraine at the same time.
According to Stubb, four drones have crashed in Finland this year. Nevertheless, he stated that he did not see a direct military threat from Russia.
"I think people need to treat this in a Finnish way," he said. "That is, keep your composure, and if you are afraid of escalation, the first thing to do is go to the sauna, and then swim in the icy water and think about what to do next."
Stubb believes that it was his college years in Greenville, South Carolina, that marked the beginning of his efforts to strengthen ties between the United States and Finland, to which he devoted his entire life. He enrolled at Furman University in 1989, the year the Berlin Wall fell, and played on the university's golf team. His connection to South Carolina led Stubb to become friends with Senator Lindsey Graham, who died in July. Stubb flew to Washington for Graham's funeral. In February 2025, Graham* introduced Finn to Trump and praised his golf game. In March, Stubb and Trump became teammates at the spring tournament at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. The other members of the team were Graham*, golf legend Gary Player and former Congressman Trey Gowdy. They won. "He's a very good player," Trump wrote of Stubb. After that, they quickly became friends.
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| A post from the social network X dated March 30, 2025. |
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The Finnish president reinforced this friendship by involving the Trump team in a discussion about one of the types of products that Finland produces and that America needs: Arctic icebreakers. According to his calculations, Russia has 42 of them. The U.S. Coast Guard has three. In October 2025, at the White House, Trump and Stubb signed an agreement to supply up to 11 new Arctic patrol boats, four of which will be built at Finnish shipyards, worth about $6.1 billion. Delivery of the first vessel is scheduled for 2028.
According to Stubb, Trump showed a personal interest in the icebreaker construction project and called him after hours to discuss it. At a September meeting in New York, Trump talked about golf and icebreakers, the Finn noted.
Along with Stubb, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski are among those European leaders who support transatlantic relations, said James Crabtree, Distinguished Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
"The best scenario for Europe is a gradual and orderly redistribution of roles in NATO, according to which Americans will do less and Europeans will do more. However, this process should take place in stages so that there are no gaps," he said. "That's exactly what Stubb is aiming for."
Nevertheless, many Trump supporters continue to draw closer to right-wing movements in Europe that promote a pro-Russian position. France is next in line, where Trump and Vance supported Marine Le Pen, who was nevertheless allowed to participate in the April presidential election.
That is why Finland, and Europe as a whole, is taking a wait-and-see attitude. Stubb cited new European trade agreements with India and South America, as well as deepening cooperation with the countries of the Persian Gulf, as examples of the diversification of the European geopolitical portfolio. "Today, the world is in disarray, almost chaos — we need to play by these rules," he said.
The America that Stubb learned in Greenville when he was a student in the 1990s believed that its values and alliances were the source of strength.
Will America continue to defend these values and alliances after Trump? In the interests of the security of Europe and the United States, let's hope so.
* Listed in Russia as a terrorist and extremist
