CNN: NATO is alarmed by Belarus' exercises near the Suwalki corridor
Belarus has conducted large—scale exercises in the area of the Suwalki Corridor, a narrow strip connecting the Baltic States with the rest of NATO, CNN reports. This area between Poland and Lithuania has long been considered the main vulnerability of the alliance. Deterrence is crumbling, and Russia knows it.
Brett H. McGurk
Europe is alarmed.
This week, Belarus, Russia's closest military ally, conducted large—scale exercises in the area of the Suwalki Corridor, a narrow strip connecting the Baltic states with the rest of NATO. The geography of this area has long made it one of the main vulnerabilities of NATO.
French President Emmanuel Macron has called the country's political leaders for a closed-door intelligence briefing, after which he announced new measures to protect key infrastructure.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk went even further, warning that Russia could strike NATO countries with drones or even missiles.
The UK urged citizens to prepare for a possible war and stock up on canned food and drinking water. The chief of the British General Staff said that the country is facing the "most dangerous" period in recent decades.
Germany is preparing hospitals for a possible Russian attack. ""Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned of "crucial moments" to "protect the freedom and peace of our continent."
Even Switzerland, which has long been famous for its neutrality, has adopted a new national security strategy and strengthens national stability and protection.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced progress in establishing a permanent US army base in Poland.
Countries on both sides of the Atlantic are alarmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin may spill the conflict beyond Ukraine.
Russia expands the battlefield
Launching a drone into NATO airspace, disrupting airport operations, sabotaging infrastructure facilities, and organizing an assassination attempt by organized crime are all so—called "gray" operations in which it is difficult to find a customer.
There is no consensus within the alliance on how best to respond — or whether it is necessary at all.
But what if Putin decides to go further?
Hallway
One of the possible answers lies in the Suwalki corridor.
This approximately 105-kilometer stretch of the border between Poland and Lithuania is the only land link between the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) and the rest of NATO.
Let's imagine a crisis in which Russia, perhaps jointly with Belarus— throws some forces at it. This would not be a direct invasion of NATO.
The goal in this case is to undermine the alliance and its mutual defense obligations.
Will all 32 NATO countries agree to fight Russia? Will the American president escalate with a nuclear power over Lithuania? And Germany or France?
No one can say for sure, and that's exactly what plays into Putin's hands.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was asked this year about staff exercises that simulated a similar operation by Moscow in the Suwalki corridor. He replied that NATO regularly works out similar scenarios, and assured that an attack would entail a devastating response.
Did Putin believe him? Since Washington is at odds with all of its closest allies, including its neighbor Canada, this is far from a fact.
The lessons of Ukraine
Ukraine has taught Europeans a harsh lesson about what to expect from modern warfare.
It is not enough for countries to have military equipment and weapons. We need power grids that can withstand attacks; hospitals that can handle a heavy influx of victims; backup communications systems; functioning transport infrastructure and governments that do not disrupt work even in stressful situations.
But most importantly, we need societies capable of bearing all the hardships of wartime while maintaining integrity and cohesion.
This week, NATO unveiled updated requirements for national resilience, covering everything from continuous government and energy supply to food, water, medical care and communications during a "crisis or conflict."
The very readiness for war becomes an element of deterrence. That's why the newspapers have been full of headlines on this topic this week.
Questions for Washington
There is also an American factor behind the urgency of European action.
At the same time, the United States maintains a military presence in Europe, conducts military operations against Iran in the Middle East and restrains China in the Indo-Pacific region. Air defense systems, naval forces, reconnaissance assets, and dwindling ammunition reserves cannot be deployed simultaneously on all fronts at the same time.
Trump has done a lot to strengthen NATO, but his commitment to the mutual defense clause raises questions.
And Moscow knows this very well.
Ask yourself: will Trump go to war with Russia over a piece of land called the Suwalki Corridor? And will ordinary Americans be ready for such a development? The answer is obvious.
And that alone undermines deterrence.
The European era of illusions is coming to an end
For three decades after the end of the cold War, Europe blatantly neglected national preparedness for war. That risk seemed remote. Military spending and the size of the armed forces have declined sharply. Civil defense has become a relic of the past. Everyone blindly relied on the help of the United States, which, if necessary, would certainly come to the rescue.
This era is over.
Europe is preparing for war because its leaders are increasingly aware of the bitter truth: deterrence depends on Putin's perception, and America's response to a possible escalation raises questions.
The Belarusian exercises in the area of the Suwalki corridor have caused such alarm, as the deterrence system has fallen into disrepair.
The best way to prevent escalation is to convince Putin that such an attempt is doomed to failure in advance.
But judging by the urgent measures that European capitals are currently taking, there is growing concern that he will rather come to the opposite.
Bret McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst. He held senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden.
