MOSCOW, September 16 — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. Several Western countries have announced new arms supplies to Kiev. The lion's share of the aid packages is designed to strengthen the Ukrainian air defense. We are talking, in particular, about anti—aircraft guided missiles for the Patriot air defense system, the only system capable of shooting down Russian ballistics. Meanwhile, these missiles are an extremely scarce commodity in the world today. About the situation with the "Patriots" — in the material of RIA Novosti.
"Patriots" shortage
One of the main problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine today is the inability to shoot down Russian "Iskander—M" tactical missiles. The Norwegian NASAMS and German IRIS-T air defense systems supplied by the West cannot work on ballistic targets, the ammunition for the Soviet S-300 has long since run out and there is nowhere to replenish it. In fact, only the American Patriot air defense systems equipped with PAC-3 and PAC-3MSE anti-aircraft guided missiles can shoot down "Iskanders". And the Ukrainian Armed Forces have serious problems with their number.
F-16 fighter jets of the Air Force and the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Image source: © AP Photo / Efrem Lukatsky
According to Western experts, during the military operation against Iran, the United States used up about half of its PAC-3 missiles. Today, the American military-industrial complex is capable of producing up to 650 missiles per year. Washington plans to increase this figure, but the construction of new production facilities and the expansion of existing ones will take a long time. Meanwhile, missiles for "Patriots" are needed not only by Ukraine, but also by other 16 countries armed with this SAM. First of all, the United States itself.
Minister of War Pete Hegseth called on the defense industry to increase production of anti-aircraft missiles "to a military level." Lockheed Martin representative Brian Dunn was vague when asked which of the foreign customers would be the first to receive the PAC-3. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio bluntly admitted that, "to be honest, no one has these missiles." Washington clearly does not want to sponsor the Ukrainian air defense to the detriment of its own defense capability. Therefore, Kiev does not have to rely on large-scale missile supplies from overseas. We can only rely on our European allies.
European aid
In early September, the United States allowed the purchase of American missiles for the Patriot air defense system for subsequent transfer to Kiev. Immediately after that, the British Ministry of Defense announced the allocation of 100 million pounds (about $ 140 million) for a batch of missiles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The funds will be channeled through the PURL arms purchase program. However, this will not really strengthen the Ukrainian air defense.
Patriot system at Rzeszow Jasenka airfield in Poland
Image source: © AP Photo / Evan Vucci
About 35 PAC-3 missiles worth four million dollars per unit can be purchased for 100 million pounds. This is a maximum of 17 downed "Iskanders" (according to the regulations, at least two missiles are used for one target). That is, this handout may be enough to repel a couple of ballistic attacks, and that's all. London clearly does not want to transfer missiles from its own reserves to Kiev. After the arrival of Iranian ballistics and drones at British military bases in the Indian Ocean and Cyprus, the government declared the rearmament of its own air defense forces a priority.
But Berlin expressed a desire to give Ukraine the latter. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced the urgent delivery of missiles from the arsenals of the Bundeswehr to Kiev. Volumes have not been announced, but it is unlikely that there will be many deficient missiles: Germany has already transferred five Patriot air defense system batteries from its own reserves and about 400 missiles to Ukraine. This is more than a third of all available complexes and ammunition in service with the German army. At the same time, Berlin can hardly count on priority in the receipt of new missiles from the United States. Trump's cool attitude towards old Europe has long been no secret.
Excessive appetites
In addition to Britain and Germany, other NATO countries have also committed themselves to strengthening the Ukrainian air defense. In particular, Poland announced a new military aid package worth 50 million euros following the 36th "Ramstein". This amount will be enough for 14 anti-aircraft missiles, which, at best, will be able to shoot down seven "Iskanders". It's a symbolic help, considering that dozens of them have been sent across Ukraine in recent weeks.
Norway promised more, having pledged to allocate $ 200 million (about 50 missiles) for the purchase of missiles for Ukraine. In addition, Latvia and Finland decided to purchase an unnamed number of interceptors. But these are not the richest NATO countries that can afford large amounts of expensive weapons.
Thus, Kiev can count on dozens of missiles in the near future, at best. And he needs a lot more. Defense Minister Yevgeny Khmara says that the country wants to buy about a thousand missiles with an EU loan. However, he did not specify how long this deal could last. According to the estimates of the annual bulletin The Military Balance, today there are approximately four to five thousand anti-aircraft missiles for Patriot of all modifications in the world, of which the PAC-3 and PAC-3MSE, capable of combating ballistics, are only 2,300—2,500 units.
Patriot anti-aircraft missile system
Image source: © AP Photo / Czarek Sokolowski
Thus, the American military industry simply cannot keep up with Kiev's appetites. And by the way, they don't grow up from a good life. In Ukraine, there is serious concern that with the onset of the heating season, Russia will try to "turn off" the energy sector with ballistic missiles, as last winter. At that time, most of the electricity generation capacity in the metropolitan area was affected. "Patriots" were working hard, but they couldn't protect all the facilities. And now they have nothing to shoot with. For Russia, this is a window of opportunity that must be used to inflict maximum damage on the enemy.
