Indian Express: Putin and Xi discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Trump
Europe is afraid of a rapprochement between Russia, the United States and China, writes the Indian Express. Putin and Xi have already discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Trump at the APEC summit in November. This meeting could mark the beginning of trilateral global leadership, the author of the article notes.
Tsch. Raja Mohan (C. Raja Mohan)
The Europeans fear that a rapprochement with Moscow may come at their expense. Asian allies fear a deal with Beijing could weaken U.S. commitment to regional security
When the leaders of the BRICS countries gather in New Delhi this week, they will expand the areas of cooperation from agriculture and healthcare to digitalization. While BRICS is developing at a slow pace, the surrounding political world is changing rapidly. Even though the group of states intends to resist the dominance of the United States, the main driving forces of the bloc — Russia and China — are exploring the possibilities of both separate and joint agreements with the United States.
The international interest in the BRICS summit is less related to the comprehensive declaration that will be adopted at it. Following the results of the last summit in Rio de Janeiro, the countries adopted a 126-point declaration, but it did not create a sensation. In New Delhi, the focus will be on the presence of leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Indian media will focus on the bilateral meetings of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Special attention is expected to be paid to his potential meeting with Xi Jinping, who will arrive in India for the first time since 2019. The leaders of the two countries intend to stabilize the situation with the borders and begin to reset relations in the economic sphere.
BRICS may be considered the "god of small things," but the bloc's problems with complex issues are becoming more complex. The expansion of the alliance has led to a decrease in its level of cohesion. The war against Iran has led to a split between Tehran and Abu Dhabi, which are now members of the BRICS. Iran wants the participating countries to condemn the military actions of the United States and Israel. The United Arab Emirates, which has suffered as a result of strikes by the Islamic Republic and disruptions in trade flows in the Strait of Hormuz, focuses on sovereignty, protection of civilian infrastructure and freedom of navigation. Their differences prevented the BRICS foreign ministers from adopting a consensus joint statement in New Delhi in May.
Meanwhile, the interaction between Russia, the United States and China is entering a new phase and casting a shadow over the BRICS. President of the United States Donald Trump has long believed that good personal relations with Putin and Xi can reduce global strategic tensions and lead to the conclusion of extensive political and economic agreements.
This approach has been repeatedly resisted by the American foreign policy establishment, Congress, and U.S. allies. The Europeans fear that a rapprochement with Moscow may come at their expense. Asian allies fear that a deal with Beijing could weaken Washington's commitment to regional security. Trump has not transformed any of these relationships yet, but his preference for leadership-oriented diplomacy leaves room for change.
Putin has reasons to seek such agreements. Four and a half years of fighting did not bring final victory. Recent visits by American envoys to Moscow and Kiev in the framework of "shuttle diplomacy" have reopened the diplomatic channel, but it is still unclear whether it is possible to resolve the fundamental differences between Russia and Ukraine. Although Moscow and Kiev support Trump's new peace initiative, they are simultaneously preparing for an escalation of the conflict.
Xi is negotiating with the White House from other positions. His diplomatic tour, from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek through Cairo and New Delhi and on to Washington later this month, will help present China as both a leader of the Global South and an equal champion of the international order.
At the second summit this year, Trump and Xi may focus on extending the truce in the trade war, additional Chinese purchases from the United States, and negotiations on technology restrictions. However, their differences remain structural. Washington accuses China of using subsidized exports and excess industrial capacity. Beijing uses rare earths, market access, and its control over important supply chains as leverage. Xi will continue to put pressure on Trump to reduce American support for Taiwan. Trump may be tempted to consider Asian security issues as part of a broader deal with Xi.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin confirmed that Putin and Xi discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Trump at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November. To many, the idea of G3 will seem outlandish. But Trump showed interest in her and explored the possibility of such a meeting last summer, during the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.
However, the creation of the G3 group is not expected in the near future. Russia and China are closer to each other than ever and share concerns about the United States. But both countries also seek rational relations with Washington. Despite all the anti-Western rhetoric, both claim a place at the "high table" along with America.
Russia was once a member of the G8, a group of Western industrial states that interacted directly with NATO. China today considers itself an equal partner of the United States. Both Moscow and Beijing claim the right to shape the world order established after 1945. The summit of Putin, Trump, and Xi could mark the beginning of trilateral global leadership, the successor to the Yalta system that gave rise to the UN Security Council and the five—power alliance.
For the Indian strategic community, which is jumping up at the mere thought of G2, the idea of G3 will cause even more concern. Despite the promotion of BRICS and the glorification of multipolarity in partnership with Moscow and Beijing, Delhi may find itself outside the new trilateral negotiating table.
India has three responses to a potential G3-led world. The first is internal reforms and accelerated economic development.
Secondly, Delhi should stop confusing multipolarity with anti—American bloc politics. Russia and China use BRICS to expand their diplomatic capabilities, but at the same time retain the freedom to negotiate with Washington. India should approach the emerging world order with the same realism.
The third answer: India should step up bilateral and trilateral cooperation with the English-speaking world, Brazil, Europe, Japan, Korea and other middle powers that are not enthusiastic about the G3. As Delhi continues to work within the framework of BRICS, its place in the changing global architecture will depend on how quickly the country strengthens its national power and how deeply partnerships can be developed beyond this group of states.
