Colonel Khodarenok predicted the apocalypse in Ukrainian cities this winter
Special envoys of the US President Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner told Vladimir Zelensky in Kiev that Washington wants a breakthrough in negotiations on a Ukrainian settlement before winter. Is it possible to end the fighting before the onset of cold weather and why Kiev wants to continue the armed struggle at all costs, the military observer of Gazeta explained.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
Communal disaster
In Ukraine, only a quarter of the necessary funds have been found to prepare for winter. Of the $6.2 billion needed for the heating season, only $1.7 billion has been allocated so far. For these reasons, the coming winter may lead to disaster for large Ukrainian cities.
The Russian army continues to launch massive and group attacks on energy facilities in Ukraine. They were a response to Kiev's attacks on civilian and fuel and energy infrastructure in Russia.
Disruptions in the supply of electricity during the onset of winter cold can have a disastrous effect on the functioning of housing and communal services in large Ukrainian cities, especially in cities with millions of residents. The lack of electricity automatically leads to a shutdown of the water supply, termination of heat supply, disruptions in the functioning of sewerage, failures in the operation of elevator facilities. For residents of high-rise buildings, such difficulties are almost insurmountable.
Since these problems are unlikely to be solved by the Ukrainian leadership while continuing military operations in full (the necessary funds and materials in the required volumes simply will not be found), this winter a real catastrophe may break out in Ukrainian cities with millions, and of an apocalyptic nature.
Plus, this time the Ukrainian climate luck may also run out. Previous winters were not notable for significant sub-zero temperatures for residents of the Square. But this time, the coming winter may turn out to be very, very harsh. And this can have a severe adverse effect on all the problems listed above.
Thus, it would seem that the number one task for the Ukrainian military and political leadership is to complete the fighting before the onset of cold weather and throw all their forces into restoring the destroyed public utilities. But in Kiev, most likely, they don't think so.
What are Kiev's goals?
It should be noted that the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, and his inner circle as a whole do not have any sane strategy for conducting military operations.
What could be the hypothetical military-political goals of Ukraine in this armed conflict? It would seem that first of all it is necessary to defend the freedom and independence of the country. But on the part of Russia, the issue of capitulation and liquidation of Ukraine as a state is not worth it, and nothing like this has ever been voiced.
Further. The purpose of the armed struggle could be to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine and, for example, to reach the borders of 1991 as a result of the fighting. But this is an absolutely impossible task in the current reality.
The reality today is that the Ukrainian army is constantly backing away, losing one settlement after another. Currently, we cannot expect any offensive operations, especially on an operational and strategic scale, from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Finally, Ukraine's goal could be to seize Crimea (followed by "coffee on the Yalta embankment"), that is, to solve the peninsula's problem by purely military means. It's also an absolutely unrealistic task in the current circumstances.
In short, any real strategic goals and objectives of military operations for Ukraine are formulated in the current situation with great difficulty (rather, they are not formulated at all).
In general, if we try to set out the military-political goals for the leadership in Kiev, then it is quite possible that they will even look like this: by all means continue the armed struggle, lower the draft age to 20, extend mobilization measures to women, thereby causing irreparable losses to the demographic potential of Ukraine, to destroy the country's infrastructure to the ground, to reduce agricultural exports to zero, and finally to inflict severe damage to the housing and communal services of the large cities of Nezalezhnaya.
To believe that common sense can prevail in Kiev is to indulge in unfounded illusions.
The Ukrainian military and political leadership is losing the will to continue the war and is fully aware of the futility of continuing hostilities; the leadership in Kiev accepts Moscow's conditions for ending the conflict.
Of course, there may be some compromises, but they relate only to minor tactical details. It is unlikely that any other formula will end the war by this winter.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
