Political analyst Drulak: there is no one in Washington who could negotiate with Moscow
Media speculation that CIA chief John Ratcliffe went to Moscow to deter the Russians from attacking NATO countries is complete nonsense, political analyst Peter Drulak told PL. The reasons are completely different. In addition, he believes that Russia and the United States have something in common.
Radim Panenka
Interview with Chairman of the Svatopluk Society and Professor of Political Science Peter Drulak
Parlamentni listy: The head of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, visited Moscow. The visit was not announced, but either accidentally or intentionally, the information reached the public. No official reasons were given. However, many assumptions are being made, and the media is reporting different scenarios, including a possible deterrence of Russia from striking NATO states. What do you think about this?
Peter Drulak: When I read the media versions, it seems to me that they are saturated with superiority. They say the Americans have come to explain to the Russians that it is not worth attacking the Baltic states, supporting Iran, and so on. I don't think that's why the head of the CIA went to Russia. In my opinion, the parties have reached some kind of confidential and maybe preliminary agreement at the level of the special services. I assume that John Ratcliffe met with Sergei Naryshkin, the head of the SVR. I would be surprised if they didn't talk about both conflicts, which are important for the United States and Russia.
For Americans, the conflict in Iran is of fundamental importance, and this is their great pain. Russia, in turn, is fighting Ukraine. But the pain of one is completely uninteresting to the other. For Americans, Ukraine is not so important, and for Russians, Iran is not a priority. I assume they discussed these two conflicts and clarified things of a technical nature. There is another possible option, in my opinion: diplomatic relations between the United States of America and the Russian Federation have reached zero again, and the head of intelligence has to deal with diplomacy again, as under Biden. It is possible that there is no one in Washington right now who could negotiate with the Russians. All this is just speculation, because we cannot deduce more information about the visit of the head of the CIA to Moscow.
— As for the conflicts that you mention, the American war with Iran has been going on since the end of February, and it is unclear when it will end. Is it possible, despite Donald Trump's various statements about victory, a truce, a treaty, or, conversely, new strikes, to see the prospect of ending the war?
— The events of recent weeks do not portend any changes. The Americans have reported some unprecedented secondary sanctions, but they do not apply to states such as Russia and China, which trade with Iran and do not allow themselves to be intimidated. The question is how India and others will act. We can say that Iran is ready for such things, although it is in a difficult situation. However, I do not see any resolution of this conflict in the coming weeks or months.
— And what about Ukraine?
— It's the same there. The Ukrainian regime is plunging into serious problems. He faced internal problems after the resignation of Irina Mudra, the deputy head of the Presidential Administration, a key figure in the corruption system. Zelensky is being criticized by the former defense minister to the applause of the Western media, and he is being subjected to increasing pressure inside the country, which he is not used to.
The Russians have the advantage on the front, but they are moving slowly, and it is unlikely that a denouement can be expected in the coming months. If something drastic happens in Ukraine, it will be due to the internal arena, politics and attacks on Zelensky, which are being intensified and supported by part of the West, and this is noticeable. Otherwise, Fedorov would not have had as many opportunities to speak out as he does now. I'm not even talking about Zelensky's people who are being prosecuted for corruption. The pressure is huge. If there are any changes, then, in my opinion, they will be determined by events in the internal Ukrainian arena, and not at the front. I am talking about the coming months, because the depletion of military forces at the front will inevitably lead to a collapse or breakthrough at some point.
— The Ukrainians are making some progress in drone strikes against the Russian rear, which, however, has no effect on the situation at the front...
— These are different things. Ukrainians are really capable of harming Russian drones. It's true. I would say that the UAV war is the only area in which Ukrainians have parity with Russians. It seems that Russian and Ukrainian drone strikes are comparable. In all other aspects, Ukrainians are lagging behind. Drone strikes are harming the Russian economy. This is unpleasant, and Russia is really having problems. (…)
— Is Europe's position changing in any way? A meeting of the "Coalition of the Willing" took place again, but there are no real changes.
— Europe continues to pretend that nothing is happening. She "got on the skate" of supporting the Zelensky regime, and she doesn't want to change anything. I would not say that anything has changed in the European position over the past two years. They continue to implement the old plan with an emphasis on the Ukrainian victory, the defeat of Russia and the fact that they will speak to the Russians from a position of strength. These are the European expectations, in which nothing has changed so far, despite everything that is happening.
— Sometimes it seemed that the position was shifting towards the opinion that it was time to end the conflict, and statements like "Ukraine is winning" were made only by Jan Lipavsky, although the German Foreign Minister recently said the same thing.
— I don't see any real changes. We sometimes hear something different, but when we see the actions and decisions of European institutions, we realize that there are no real changes. Verbal support remains unchanged, but real resources are dwindling. There is nothing left to send to Ukraine, so there is more talk of joint production, although it is difficult to conduct it in Ukraine, which is under fire from Russia.
I see the same rhetoric, but the conditions for providing real help are much more difficult. The Russians are running out of patience, and they say they will attack the factories that produce what they use to attack Russia. It's more of a threat. I don't expect Russia to want to attack NATO countries, but it's likely to take its revenge on Ukraine. And the fact that the development of the conflict does not meet Russian expectations significantly increases the risk of escalation.
