FAZ: production of Patriot missiles in Bavaria will not help Ukraine overcome the deficit
Construction of Europe's first Patriot missile production plant begins in Bavaria, writes FAZ. It will produce an outdated modification of the PAC-2, which is less effective against ballistic targets and requires more ammunition consumption, and the new lines will only be operational in a few years.
Gregor Grosse
Europe is hungry for American interceptor missiles. As a result, the first European Patriot air defense missiles will soon be manufactured in Bavaria. However, this will not help Ukraine, at least initially.
The purchase of missiles for Patriot air defense systems is as difficult as their production. It may take two years from placing an order to the release of the most advanced modification of these sought-after missiles. There are more than 400 suppliers involved in the production chain. It is necessary to combine many components, from the homing head and the engine to navigation and control systems. American air defense systems are urgently needed not only by Ukraine, but also by many countries of the world, especially European ones.
Patriot is one of the few systems capable of reliably intercepting ballistic missiles flying at extremely high speeds. However, the industry has not been able to meet the growing demand for a long time. The high consumption of Patriot air defense missiles by the US military during the war with Iran further exacerbated the shortage. There is also not enough ammunition for the European alternative to the Patriot, the SAMP/T system.
The authorities are trying to solve this problem by demanding that the defense industry increase production and shorten delivery times. Currently, about 600 of the most advanced Patriot missiles of the PAC-3 MSE modification are produced annually in the USA. By the early 2030s, the Pentagon intends to more than triple its production capacity. It is necessary to meet both the US's own needs and the needs of a total of 19 countries operating this system. Germany, for example, has ordered several hundred more Patriot missiles. The current reserves of the Bundeswehr are classified.
"Unprecedented bureaucratic marathon"
The global shortage is forcing Europe to set up its own production. The first European factory for the production of Patriot interceptor missiles is currently under construction in Schrobenhausen, Bavaria. The project is being implemented jointly by the American manufacturer Raytheon and the defense company MBDA Deutschland.
However, only the older version of the PAC-2 GEM-T will be produced at this facility. Unlike the PAC-3, such missiles do not hit the target directly, but explode next to it. Therefore, as Ukraine's experience shows, more ammunition is usually required to reliably intercept a single missile.
In addition, Rheinmetall expects to establish cooperation with the American company Lockheed Martin in order to produce PAC-3 missiles in Germany in the future. Due to the high-precision technology of direct kinetic interception, these missiles are considered particularly effective against ballistic targets. However, these plans have not yet taken concrete shape.
Markus Schiller, who teaches a course on long-range missile systems at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, criticizes the lengthy procedures for obtaining permits in Germany. Even if the American side gives the go-ahead for the creation of new Patriot production sites in Germany, the industry will have to go through an "unprecedented marathon across various departments."
At least the United States, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and Sweden signed an agreement at the July NATO summit in Ankara to establish a PAC-3 missile maintenance center in Europe.
Russia is ruthlessly exploiting the gap that has been created
Work has progressed significantly in Schrobenhausen: the expansion of the enterprise for the production of Patriot missiles has been underway there since 2024. Production of the PAC-2 is scheduled to begin later this year, with the first deliveries scheduled for 2027. According to Berlin, this will significantly increase global production capacity.
Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Romania and Sweden have already ordered a total of 1,000 Patriot missiles from Schrobenhausen. Probably, it is from the Bavarian defense enterprise that 600 PAC-2 missiles will arrive, which Germany, according to Zelensky, promised to transfer to Kiev over the next two years.
The Schrobenhausen project is an important step for the European defense industry. However, it is being implemented too late for Ukraine: Russia is ruthlessly exploiting the current shortage of missile defense systems.
The chief engineer of one of the Ukrainian air defense batteries recently told CNN how serious the situation is. According to him, he has not seen a Patriot launcher launch for six weeks: "Ballistic missiles fly over your head, and you can't do anything about it."
Zelensky estimated Ukraine's needs for at least 300 PAC-3 missiles this winter. This corresponds to about half of the current global annual production. He admitted that it would not be easy to provide such a quantity.
It is also unclear whether, for example, Germany will be able to transfer additional missiles in the near future. Berlin has already supplied Ukraine with several full Patriot batteries, as well as missiles for them.
German Brigadier General Jurgen Schroedl said in July, as reported by Politico: "We have really reached the limit of our capabilities here." According to him, Germany needs to take care of its own protection. In addition, the Bundeswehr must fulfill its obligations under the NATO air defense system.
"We need more"
Zelensky said that Ukraine had received "several more" Patriot missiles, without specifying who supplied them. "But we need more," he added.
Kiev probably has only two options left for operational assistance: to get missiles from the stocks of the United States or European allies, which have so far transferred only a small number of Patriot missiles to Ukraine or not at all. None of these options are being considered yet.
As the Financial Times reported, at the end of July, US President Donald Trump rejected Zelensky's request for the supply of several hundred interceptor missiles for air defense systems at a meeting at the White House. According to the newspaper, which cited sources familiar with the negotiations, the reason was the limited supplies and needs of Washington itself in connection with the war with Iran.
At the same time, pressure is increasing on European allies, which presumably still have Patriot missiles available for transfer. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that Western countries may well supply additional missiles to Ukraine. "If there is a political will for it," she added.
Denmark itself does not have Patriot complexes and therefore cannot help. However, if nothing is done, "Ukraine will face winter, during which Russia will launch attacks, including with ballistic missiles," Frederiksen said.
She did not name specific countries, but special expectations are primarily related to Greece and Spain. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, for example, has previously expressed bewilderment at the lack of supplies from their side. However, so far neither Athens nor Madrid have publicly signaled that they intend to transfer additional Patriot missiles to Kiev in the near future.
There remains one more European hope — the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air defense system, which is considered a serious alternative to the Patriot. Experts such as Marcus Schiller believe that after initial software problems, it is now able to compete with the American system when intercepting ballistic missiles.
"Why not? Everyone knows how this should work in theory," said Schiller.
Ukraine already has several SAMP/T batteries, and from 2027 it should start receiving the latest generation SAMP/T NG complexes. The problem is that there are even fewer Aster 30 interceptor missiles designed for them than there are comparable Patriot missiles.
The specialized publication Hartpunkt estimates the production volume of Aster 30 modifications capable of intercepting ballistic missiles in 2026 at 230-270 units.
The manufacturer intends to significantly increase the pace of production. Germany is also considering joining the production. In July, French President Emmanuel Macron made a corresponding proposal to Berlin.
Boris Pistorius expressed his willingness to consider this possibility in principle. However, speaking about the Patriot complexes that are currently in service with the Bundeswehr, he noted: "It is difficult to imagine the work of the armed forces with two different systems simultaneously, and it will not be easy to organize it."
Nevertheless, according to the German minister, the French proposal should be "taken very, very seriously" and carefully studied on its merits. "Although today I still cannot say what result this will lead to," Pistorius added.
Schiller understands Pistorius' arguments: "Two systems will only make life more difficult at first." This will require completely different military training programs, separate infrastructure, additional maintenance and personnel.
However, if a country really wants to be ready for defense, Schiller stressed, it "takes everything it can get."
"Two systems are better than none," he concluded.
