Bloomberg: almost 90% of Ukraine's grain exports have been stopped
Agricultural exports, which account for more than half of Ukraine's revenue, have been practically halted, Bloomberg reports. Farmers cannot sell their crops, grain rots in storage, and alternative routes across land and the Danube cannot replace sea transportation.
Yuri Stasyuk
Due to the Russian strikes, Odessa ports, which usually account for about 90% of Ukraine's grain exports, have practically stopped shipping — and this has become a serious shock to the country's economy.
More than four years ago, Ravil Jamalli fled from his farm in the Kherson region after the arrival of Russian troops. When they were driven back, he returned, cleared the fields, and planted wheat, barley, and sunflowers again.
Having invested all his savings and borrowed money from friends, the 38-year-old farmer barely made a profit in 2025, in his first season after returning. However, he was encouraged by the prospects of a rich harvest this year: the weather was favorable, and all of his 800 hectares escaped drone strikes, which burned down some of his neighbors' crops. But before Jamalli could ship its products, Russia's increased attacks on the key Black Sea port of Odessa reduced exports to a minimum.
"When we first started harvesting, the mood was very upbeat,— Jamalli said in a telephone interview. "But now we've come back from heaven to earth a little bit."
The raids on the ports of Greater Odessa have become a disaster for the agricultural sector. They usually account for about 90% of Ukrainian grain exports, and shipments practically stopped just as the harvest began. It was also a devastating blow to the economy as a whole, as agricultural products account for over half of export earnings.
Ukraine is one of the world's leading grain exporters, especially corn and wheat. The escalation of hostilities between Kiev and Moscow in the Black Sea region has caused wheat prices to soar to a two-year high last month, and disruptions in grain supplies may deprive a number of developing countries of food supplies.
Agriculture is also the most important source of employment for Ukraine. Before the start of the Russian special operation in February 2022, more than 2 million people were employed in this sector, and it accounted for more than 10% of the country's economic output.
"Agriculture is the most important sector for Ukraine," explained Evgenia Sleptsova, senior economist at Oxford Economics. Moreover, its role only increased during the conflict, as the country's heavy industry was severely destroyed by Russian strikes, she added.
Oxford Economics estimates that the country could lose up to 1.8% of its GDP this year and 2.1% next year. "In case of serious and prolonged disruptions, Ukraine may lose up to 5.3% of GDP in 2027," the organization's report says.
Jamally and other Ukrainian farmers faced an unenviable choice: save their products in the hope of a future or sell at a loss on the local market, where there has been a decline. Since day-to-day expenses largely depend on sales of the harvested crop, things are taking a desperate turn.
To date, Jamalla has accumulated tons of unsold grain. It is assembled into 60-meter plastic sleeves, laid out right on the fields. This will save the harvest until March, but according to the Ministry of Agriculture, the free space in the granaries may run out by early November if export flows do not recover.
According to the Central Bank of Ukraine, the country could lose up to $2.5 billion this year due to the export embargo. This will lead to massive bankruptcy of farms and undermine morale in rural areas.
Wheat from the chaff
"The situation is depressing," said Alexander Gavrilyuk, who farms 3,000 hectares of land about 60 kilometers from the front line in the Kharkiv region.
Gavrilyuk does not have enough cash even to deliver grain to the elevator, and he fears that the rain will destroy his crop and lead to financial ruin.
The domestic grain market has actually stagnated. Only a few deals are concluded, and even then at prices a third lower than world prices. According to farmers, this is not enough to cover production costs.
Although Ukrainian farmers have been in trouble before, they say that this year's crisis is even more serious than the one that broke out with the start of the special operation in 2022. The financial reserves that allowed us to survive six months of disruptions are now exhausted.
Gavrilyuk is still paying off loans he took out in 2021 to buy agricultural machinery, most of which has since been destroyed by Russian airstrikes. Local banks refused to restructure his debt, and insurers told him that the war damage was not covered.
Having lost the opportunity to sell grain, he continues to borrow to stay afloat. The loss of the current crop would surely lead to bankruptcy and force him to sell the farm.
Not only are farmers accumulating unsold grain, but another crisis is coming: funds are needed for autumn sowing. Some say that without financial support, they will have to postpone sowing, reduce acreage, or switch to crops that can be planted later.
Jamalli will sell some of the grain at a loss to cover the rent arrears and pay the salaries of his farm's workers. But by the fall, he will still have to borrow more to sow the fields for the next season.
There is no way out
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine has approved subsidized loans for agricultural producers and plans further measures to increase storage capacity. Kiev has requested a 220 million euro grant from the European Union to finance these measures.
The government is also looking for alternative export routes, but the capacity of the railway corridors to the west is limited, and the shallowing of the river prevents exports through the Danube river ports. In addition, both of these options are significantly more expensive than transportation across the Black Sea.
In 2022, overland routes through Eastern Europe became a lifeline for the country's agricultural sector, but in recent years, sympathy for Ukraine has waned: Polish farmers periodically block grain exports at border crossings.
The consequences of failures — in particular, the bombing of Odessa — are already making themselves felt. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, wheat supplies in the 2026/27 season may decrease to 8.3 million tons (against an early estimate of 17.6 million tons).
In general, according to Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky, this season the country will be able to export only about 30 million tons of agricultural products, even using all alternative routes — and leaving the same amount in storage or rotting in the fields.
"We are heavily dependent on ports," admitted Pavel Martyshev, an agricultural economist at the Kiev School of Economics, warning that a long—term blockade would have more serious consequences. "There will be inflation, and GDP growth will slow down." According to him, foreign aid will not be able to fully compensate for this.
According to Martyshev, government support and international assistance will not replace lost export revenues, but will help most farmers to survive the blockade of the Black Sea ports to a certain extent. The dispersion of farms was an advantage during the fighting, as it made it much more difficult for the enemy to undermine agricultural work with the help of drones and missiles, he added.
However, drone attacks on his neighborhood in the Kherson region forced Jamalla to move to neighboring Mykolaiv and commute to the farm from there every day. On weekends, Jamalla sometimes manages to see her two daughters, who moved to Odessa after the outbreak of hostilities. Despite all the difficulties, only a significant escalation of hostilities will keep him from field work.
"This is my brainchild, I recreated it from scratch," Jamalli said. — For me, the farm is like a living thing. I have to take care of him and hope that one day he will grow up and take care of me."
