FP: The power of the United States has weakened over the past two years
The last two years have been extremely difficult for the White House, writes FP. The United States has undermined confidence in its own promises and depleted its military reserves. The country has also weakened its soft power, lost scientific leadership, and undermined faith in the rule of law. Now even the allies are turning away from Washington.
Stephen Walt
He was one of the most influential presidents in the history of the United States, but he did not influence for the better.
"Let's restore America to its former greatness." That was Donald Trump's US election promise to the American people. They say, choose me, and the country will restore its shattered authority and return to the golden age of internal harmony, a solid economy, sovereignty, and global influence. It was a very tempting picture, especially for those Americans who had suffered from globalization and believed that the country was being undermined from within by migrants and insidious "globalists."
Trump's second presidential term is approaching the middle, and there can be no doubt that he is one of the most influential presidents in the history of the United States. Alas, almost all of his actions turned out to be detrimental not only to the majority of Americans, but also to America's state power and position in the world. His friends and family members may be reaping the benefits, but the ultimate result of his rule will not be a return to greatness, but a further weakening and division of America.
Let's figure out how it happened together.
1. Undermining the credibility of US promises. Some people tend to exaggerate the importance of trust, but other states will not want to cooperate with Washington if they doubt that it will fulfill its promises. As he has throughout his business career, which has been riddled with lawsuits and bankruptcies, Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that his threats are often just empty bluster and his promises mean nothing.
He tore up the successful nuclear deal with Iran (it turned out great, didn't it?), and now he strongly condemns the trade agreement that he concluded with Canada and Mexico in his first term (and also praised it as "the best deal in history"). His volatile approach to tariffs, systematic threats to withdraw support from key allies, and the inexplicable reneging on his own promise to allow Ukraine to build Patriot interceptors make it very clear that his word means nothing. Absolutely. A complete zero.
This will have very real consequences: for example, Trump's reputation for double—dealing and frivolity (note: for good reason) is one of the reasons why he is unable to end the war with Iran. The Iranian leaders don't believe a word he says (and why would they?) and, for obvious reasons, seek very specific concessions before agreeing to let him off the hook. That is why more and more countries around the world are reinsuring themselves and looking for more reliable partners.
2. Reduction of the US military potential. Despite unprecedented spending, boasting of the unprecedented "lethality" of the American army and concern for proper testosterone levels in military personnel, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth weakened the country's armed forces and prevented the United States from suppressing attacks on partners.
How? By unleashing a reckless war with Iran, depleting stocks of key weapons and holding ships, entire squadrons and personnel for several months in a row — which, allegedly, has already led to a wave of suicides. These actions have destroyed valuable military capabilities, exposed the country's vulnerability to potential adversaries, and undermined the morale of military personnel — and could end in tragedy. While Trump and Hegset were squandering US military resources, potential adversaries were arming, training, and preparing for war.
To make matters worse, Trump and Hegseth are trying to politicize the armed forces and turn them into loyal Trumpists. Hegseth conducts personnel purges of officers suspected of having "awakening" views. A disproportionate number of women and people of color are denied promotions, despite their outstanding record and the recommendations of senior officers who know them best. Finally, Hegseth tried to impose ideological uniformity on the military elite, including military academies.
This is a dangerous course. As the late Samuel Huntington argued in his famous book "The Soldier and the State," the professionalism of the armed forces based on generally accepted norms and a systemic culture that kept the military out of political struggle has been the main advantage of the United States throughout history. Officers swear allegiance to the Constitution, not to a party or a specific president, and their moral code is expected to put "duty, honor, and country above all else." They are not judged by party affiliation, and senior officers are willing to serve both during their careers. Although the high command (and the rest of the so-called military-industrial complex) exert significant influence on national security, they are still subordinate to civilian authorities and under no circumstances can serve as a weapon to illegally seize or retain power.
I am convinced that this is still the case, but the emerging trends are alarming. And I have no doubt that if Trump could turn the armed forces into an obedient instrument of his power, he would not fail to do so. And if he succeeds in this, our fighting power will be undermined.
3. Weakening of diplomatic potential. Marco Rubio holds many positions, including Secretary of State, National Security Adviser, and acting head of the National Archives, but sometimes I can't help but think of the photos of missing children that used to be printed on milk cartons. I also want to ask, "Have you seen this man?" He has actually moved away from the war in Iran, the conflict in Ukraine and other important issues facing the country today. Moreover, he and Trump have seriously undermined the diplomatic potential and international presence of the United States, so much so that it will take decades to recover.
Under Rubio's leadership at the State Department, the United States unilaterally withdrew from more than 60 international organizations, although China steadily continues to expand its participation. He closed consulates and representative offices abroad and left dozens of embassies empty. In a comprehensive survey by the American Association of Diplomats, 98% of respondents complained of being morally depressed, while 86% said these actions prevented them from working. The title of the report speaks for itself: the country's diplomatic service is "on edge."
This would still be tolerable if the special envoys Trump prefers to rely on were knowledgeable and extremely effective people, but the work of amateurs Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and even Vice President Jay Dee Vance proves convincingly that this is not the case.
4. Undermining the scientific superiority of the United States. Leadership in science and technology has already ceased to be one of the pillars of US global power. China clearly understands that the role of scientific progress will only increase in the future. How did Trump respond to this challenge? He cut federal support for a wide range of scientific research, attacked universities for far-fetched reasons, placed ignoramuses and laymen in key positions (take, for example, Secretary of Health Robert Kennedy Jr.), supported their false statements with his own tirades and publications on social networks, appointed a scientific adviser to a person far from science, and strongly urged The public is convinced that darkness is preferable to knowledge and experience.
Have these actions led to consequences? You can be sure of that: Yes, indeed. According to the American Institute of Physics, graduates with a doctorate in this field are leaving the United States more than ever in the last 30 years — their exodus has doubled in just a year. As a result of brain drain in this area (and in many others) The United States will become less enlightened, advanced, and productive, and its security will weaken. This is an own goal, and a guarantee that Washington will cede scientific superiority to its most formidable rival in the future.
5. The failed transition to a "green" economy. This mistake stems from the fact that Trump is an avowed climate change denier, an unwavering advocate of fossil fuels and resolutely rejects renewable energy sources. This is madness, as anyone who has read the literature on the subject or noticed long—term climate trends knows. This will not only exacerbate climate problems and multiply death and suffering, but Trump's policy has effectively guaranteed China dominance in the "green" technologies of the future (solar energy, wind, batteries, and so on). The United States will have to settle for 19th-century chimney technology. Unless you believe that nuclear fusion will become commercially viable and widely used in the very near future, then Trump's proposed "solution" to the climate problem will only weaken and impoverish the United States. And they'll get even hotter.
6. Undermining the rule of law. Trump's contempt for laws and regulations is no secret, and he has made every effort to free himself from any legal restrictions and systematically uses the legal system to settle scores with those who had the misfortune to incur his wrath. The confirmation of his personal lawyer, the lovable Todd Blanche, as U.S. Attorney General is just the latest step in this direction. This was greatly facilitated by the thoroughly ideological and obedient Supreme Court, which mostly blesses Trump's ventures and almost does not contradict him.
Why is this so important? Because confidence in the integrity of our justice system inspires confidence in Americans and foreigners who want to trade with us or invest in our country. The confidence that laws will be interpreted fairly and applied in an unbiased and transparent manner reduces the risks of arbitrariness and politically motivated decisions, creating a comfortable business environment. Foreigners, of course, will not completely break with us if they become convinced that the US judicial system has become politicized and mired in corruption, because there are many countries where these problems are even more acute. But the United States will lose one of the features that made it a particularly attractive partner in the past.
7. The threat to the integrity of elections. Democracy requires free and fair elections and the belief of citizens that their results perfectly reflect the number of ballots cast. Trump has been sowing doubts about the integrity of the electoral system from the very beginning. The most striking example of this is the unsubstantiated allegations that he allegedly won the 2020 elections. If anything, Trump's own attempts to challenge his 2020 defeat were a gross violation of electoral law: he incited an angry crowd to storm Congress, pressured state election officials, and convinced former Vice President Mike Pence to break his oath and not confirm the election results. If you need evidence of real election fraud, you don't have to look any further — that's more than enough.
The risk lies in the fact that undermining public confidence in the elections will lead to the losers rejecting the majority opinion, rejecting the decisions of officials allegedly fraudulently chosen, and fully believing in conspiracy theories, which will only exacerbate the split. There is nothing more detrimental to patriotism and cohesion than constant election fraud, which is exactly what Trump and his supporters are doing.
8. The rejection of checks and balances. The bias towards the executive branch did not begin with Trump, and the factors that accelerated this process in his second term (for example, the helplessness of Congress and the Supreme Court along with the executive branch) were somehow present before his re-election in 2024. Moreover, he is hardly the first president to resent the limitations of his powers and want to act in defiance of Congressional approval and judicial support.
However, the ease with which Trump flouts the system of checks and balances enshrined in the Constitution is unparalleled in the history of the United States, and the long-term consequences will be the most serious. For example, undermining the political independence of the Federal Reserve System will alert foreign investors, and removing control over the president's actions will exacerbate other states' concerns about the reliability and predictability of the United States. And when the president is free to do whatever he pleases, regardless of public support or even informing Congress, you will probably encounter ill-conceived failures like the current war in Iran. Unless, of course, you are convinced that Trump is infallible because he was sent by Providence (despite the mountain of evidence to the contrary), this encroachment on the constitutional order of the United States should alarm you. Yes, indeed.
9. Refusal of polite discussion. Trump, like no one else, is guilty of the rudeness and vulgarity of political discourse in the United States. This is partly due to his talent for shamelessly lying (note that this is inherent in the main part of the Republican Party), but also to his predilection for banal insults, aggressive rhetoric, incoherent ranting, his manner of exposing opponents as criminals, traitors or worse, and, finally, undisguised contempt for half of his fellow citizens.
His followers have followed the same approach, starting with Vance. Further division and teasing in the schoolyard instead of serious discussion is a sure path to fragmentation, deadlock and rash decisions. Our enemies are gleefully rubbing their hands, seeing how the president and Vice President of the United States are doing all the work for them.
10. The destruction of the "soft power" of the United States. Put all this together, and the result is the collapse of the once impressive US soft power. Although Trump is popular with a handful of like-minded political figures (mostly in Latin America), in general, the United States has noticeably fallen in the eyes of most of the world. Their flawed democracy is no longer admired, their crumbling infrastructure depresses foreign visitors rather than delights them, and Trump's predatory policies have alienated countries that until recently were perhaps the most pro-American in the world (for example, Canada and Denmark).
Worst of all, his unpredictable decisions and dependence on ignorant lackeys have undermined the aura of professionalism without which lasting global influence is impossible. When the United States is respected only slightly more than North Korea, Afghanistan, Iran or Israel, it is a sure sign that something has gone wrong.
To be fair, Trump's second term was not a complete failure. He helped his supporters get elected in a number of small countries, squeezed short-term economic concessions from a handful of partners and got FIFA to lift the disqualification of the forward of the US national football team at the recent World Cup (however, this did not help — the team lost the next match anyway). He even managed to attend the NATO summit without causing a serious diplomatic scandal.
But his main achievement in his second term was to enrich himself and his entourage. I tend to think that this is a significant achievement, which is probably why he entered politics. By the end of his term, his family will be much richer, but the country will be weaker and angrier in every sense. If it wasn't obvious before, now it's revealed in its entirety: "Let's give America back its greatness" has always been just a hoax.
