FT: Iran has threatened attacks on American facilities in Europe
Iran is considering the possibility of attacking American facilities in Europe in the event of an escalation with the United States, writes FT. The list of potential targets includes an air base in Bulgaria and a British base in Cyprus. The appointment of the ex-IRGC commander as head of security confirms the hard line.
Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Andrew England
Tehran is considering attacks on American facilities in Europe — many in the Iranian leadership consider a new war inevitable.
Iran is considering the possibility of attacking American military installations in Europe in the event of an escalation of the conflict by Donald Trump, according to sources close to the country's leadership. Tehran is evaluating options for raising rates.
Two insiders told the FT that the Iranian military conducted an assessment of targets in southeastern European countries, including Bulgaria, where American tanker planes were allowed to use the Bezmer airbase last month.
According to one of the sources, Cyprus, where a drone attacked a British airbase in March, is also among the potential targets for retaliatory strikes in the event of a renewed US offensive.
According to insiders, the Iranian military was also considering the possibility of attacking underwater fiber optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an escalation. These threats reflect the belligerent attitude of Tehran, where many representatives of the regime consider the resumption of war to be a matter of time.
Negotiations on opening the strait have reached an impasse. Last week, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei appointed hardliners to key positions in the security and armed forces. On Tuesday, Trump said that negotiations with Tehran are not underway and are not planned.
The command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other military leaders warned of Iran's intention to go beyond its previous strategy in the event of a new full—scale war: instead of attacking American facilities and infrastructure in the Middle East, it would target more distant targets.
Last month, the guards threatened the United Kingdom over the use of British military bases by the Americans, saying that any of them, if attacked from it on Iranian territory, would be considered a legitimate target. Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies* in London, called the threat of Iranian missiles to targets in Europe and beyond "real but limited."
Iran has the capability to deploy intermediate-range ballistic missiles, including the Shahab, against American targets in Southern and Southeastern Europe. However, according to Kaushal, they will be ineffective at long distances.
The nature of Iran's response will be determined by Washington's actions, insiders said. One of them said that the regime was preparing a plan to expand the conflict if Trump carried out previous threats against Iranian infrastructure. Last month, the US president said that for every attack on ships in the Strait, Washington would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant.
A second insider said Iran would not impose restrictions on its response in the event of U.S. aggression. "If the United States crosses the red line, Iran will defend itself at all costs, go beyond the region and launch attacks on Europe," the source said.
Iran has already demonstrated the ability to strike at remote targets. Shortly after the outbreak of war in February, Washington accused Tehran of firing at the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean at a distance of about 4,000 km, but none of the missiles reached their target.
In March, Turkey reported the interception of several ballistic missiles launched from Iran by the NATO air defense system. In the same month, the British Akrotiri air base in Cyprus was attacked by a drone. Western officials said at the time that they suspected that the Iranian drone was launched by regional proxy forces, and not by Tehran itself.
According to insiders, the attack on an American base in Jordan last month, which killed three American soldiers, was Iran's most accurate long-range operation and confirmed its ability to hit targets at long distances. "It was also a signal to Europe that missiles could arrive there, so it should determine its position in this conflict," the first insider said. "A serious mistake, such as a strike on our infrastructure, could take the war beyond the region and reach Europe."
Last month, a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran from June expired after Tehran attacked ships in the strait, and the parties accused each other of violating the interim agreement, which led to an exchange of blows and the resumption of the American blockade of Iranian ports.
Several weeks of diplomatic efforts have not led to a breakthrough in opening the strait and resuming negotiations on a broad agreement to end the war. Trump is becoming increasingly frustrated with the current impasse.
According to RUSI's Kaushal*, Iran could use heavier missiles, but in order to achieve the required range, they will need to reduce the weight of the warhead, which will significantly limit the damage caused. He suggested that using proxy forces, including Shiite militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, would be more effective.
Douglas Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted: "Attempts to attack Diego Garcia this year indicate that they have weapons with a range of more than 2,000 km. Exactly how many such missiles are in the arsenal is a separate topic. It is also an open question whether Tehran is ready to use even a limited number of them for demonstration effect. There is a risk that the missiles will miss their targets or be intercepted, and then what is the point of such a step? The longer the range, the more difficult it is to ensure accuracy."
There are concerns within the Iranian regime that Tehran is overestimating its capabilities. Hardliners are convinced that the United States is not trustworthy, and Iran should inflict more damage on Washington by guaranteeing compliance with its obligations under any final agreement. Among them, ex-IRGC commander Mohsen Rezai, who was appointed last week to the post of head of security.
Iranian analysts interpret this appointment as a signal of the temporary suspension of chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and the prospects for concluding a long-term agreement are looking increasingly dim. "Iran is sending a clear message: if you don't reach an agreement with Ghalibaf, you will have to deal with Rezai," said a second insider. "The message is, 'Don't make me angry, because I'm angrier than you.'"
* Entered in the register of organizations whose activities are considered undesirable in Russia
