Spiegel: the United States has no more profitable options for the development of events in the war with Iran
The United States has almost no good ways out of the war with Iran, writes Der Spiegel. Tehran has strengthened its position, controls the Strait of Hormuz and dictates its terms. The states can now only count on minimizing the damage.
Maximilian Popp
Donald Trump has almost no good options left in his relations with Iran.
This week, Donald Trump tried to wishful thinking again. According to the US president, the Strait of Hormuz has been cleared of mines, and the United States controls this important passage in the Persian Gulf "100%." This is a strategy that Trump has used regularly throughout his career, and not always unsuccessfully: he adjusts reality to his own ideas.
The problem is that this strategy does not work in the conflict with Iran.
Since the start of the war in late February, Trump has made numerous statements that either did not correspond to reality or directly contradicted each other: "An entire civilization will die tonight," "We are about to make a deal." Unsurprisingly, the same thing is happening with the Strait of Hormuz. Iranians still hardly let ships through, and the United States is far from controlling this waterway.
For Trump, this is not just a political and economic problem due to the continued high energy prices. The Middle East fiasco simultaneously undermines his foreign policy credibility. Almost no one takes him seriously anymore. Even his international allies do not accept him, as shown by the recent rejection of the Gaza plan by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Many of his fellow citizens, most of whom are already opposed to the war with Iran, do not perceive it either. And the Iranians themselves are the least likely to take him seriously.
In Tehran, they became convinced that Trump rarely carries out his threats. Therefore, the Iranian regime has so far made little progress in negotiations with the United States.
There is only a bad and very bad way to get out of a conflict.
The administration in Washington will have to admit a simple but unpleasant truth: Iran won this war. Trump has achieved almost none of his goals. The Islamists are still in power, they are still capable of creating nuclear weapons. Now they also know how serious damage the closure of the Strait of Hormuz can cause to the global economy.
Trump can still continue to strike, even if, according to media reports, the US military's ammunition reserves are gradually decreasing. However, he is unlikely to be able to fundamentally change the course of the conflict without sending ground troops. Such a move would be extremely risky.
It is difficult for American society to explain the need for another seemingly endless war in the Middle East. Therefore, Trump, in fact, can only retreat. And here there is only a bad and very bad option.
A very bad option for the American administration would be the withdrawal of troops from the Middle East and the desire to forget about everything related to Iran. First of all, it would be a disaster for the people of the country. They would be left alone with a brutal, radicalized regime with no hope of improving the situation. But for the entire region, especially Israel, Iran would remain a constant threat. Unfortunately, this is exactly the way that suits Trump's character.
A new version of the Obama agreement
It would be better if Trump retained at least some involvement in the affairs of the Middle East and agreed to negotiate with Iran. However, this cannot be implemented without concessions.
In the short term, this means that the United States must approve the agreements that Iran and Oman have apparently already largely agreed upon. According to them, both countries will be able to charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The bitter irony is that the Iranian regime will receive millions of dollars every day for keeping the trade route open, which was already open until February. The only thing worse would be if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for a long time.
In the medium term, the West should try to conclude an agreement on the nuclear program with the leadership in Tehran. To do this, we will also have to meet the Iranian regime halfway, for example, by easing American and European sanctions.
In fact, this would mean a return to the agreement that former US President Barack Obama signed in 2015 and from which Trump withdrew during his first presidential term. Only now will the West have to make more significant economic concessions, as Iran's negotiating position is now stronger than it was 11 years ago.
All this is unlikely to inspire optimism in Iran. And this is definitely not the result that Trump himself was hoping for at the beginning of the attack. But now this conflict is primarily about minimizing the damage.
