The volume of the Russian AI market has exceeded 316 billion rubles
According to the baseline scenario, the domestic AI market will grow to 830 billion rubles by 2030, according to the conservative scenario - to only 582 billion rubles, the analytical agency AIANA predicts. By the end of 2025, the Russian artificial intelligence market grew by 29.7% to RUB 316.1 billion, with AI equipment becoming the largest segment and business becoming the key consumer.
According to the analytical agency AIANA, the Russian AI market grew by 29.7% in 2025, to 316.1 billion rubles. At the same time, its volume has doubled in two years, the authors of the study write. "The average pace hides a phase change — the money that went into equipment purchases yesterday is now going into capacity leasing and implementation," they note.
The largest segment of the market by revenue is AI equipment (31.1%), 148 companies (see infographic). At the same time, the main client of AI companies, the authors of the study write, is the B2B sector - it accounts for 71.9% of companies' revenue, another 15.6% for private clients and another 12.5% for government customers.
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| The Russian AI market. |
| Source: Kommersant |
According to the basic forecast, the market will reach 830 billion rubles by 2030. while "maintaining a high key rate and the current level of geopolitical risks." According to the optimistic scenario, the market volume will amount to 1.12 trillion rubles by 2030. with a "proactive reduction in the key rate, a weakening of geopolitical risks, the formation of its own technological base and the exit of domestic solutions beyond the internal contour."
Nevertheless, according to the conservative scenario, the market will grow only to 582 billion rubles. with an increase in the key rate, increased sanctions, "limited access to foreign computing resources, infrastructure and models, as well as rising costs," which increase prices for end solutions, reduce demand for AI services, as well as slow down implementation and "preserve the technological backlog." "In the five—year perspective, the AI infrastructure will move to the cloud, the market will begin to consolidate, and we will see real technological giants in artificial intelligence," predicts Danila Egorov, founder of AIANA.
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| The Russian AI market. |
| Source: Kommersant |
The market is shifting from the development of the models themselves to application solutions based on them, primarily AI agents and virtual employees, according to the Director of products at MWS AI (part of MTS Web Services) Maxim Voloshin. "The main deterrent will be the lack of competencies. Additional restrictions are related to access to computing infrastructure and capital. Sanctions make it harder to access technology, and the small venture capital market, compared to the United States, limits the ability of new teams to attract investments and scale quickly," he adds. "Business process agentication is becoming one of the most promising areas. Unlike chatbots and assistants, an AI agent is able to achieve goals on its own by planning and completing a sequence of tasks," says Andrey Kutukov, director of Sberbank's Technology Business Center. Yandex declined to comment.
"Today, it is large businesses that simultaneously have three necessary resources: money, data, and the scale of processes where investments in AI can pay off," explains Alexander Ponomarev, partner at Zarya Ventures, an investment technology company. According to him, the situation is different for the private consumer.: "Against the background of weak economic growth and high cost of money, the Russian B2C market is much more price-sensitive. The user is ready to actively use AI, but is less willing to pay for it separately."
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| The Russian AI market. |
| Source: Kommersant |
Maxim Ivanov, partner of the TeDo technology practice, believes that the Russian artificial intelligence market is unlikely to be able to take a significant share on a global scale in the coming years. "This is primarily due to geopolitical factors. However, locally, the Russian AI market may become fully sovereign and visible in key industrial and corporate solutions," he notes. According to one of the latest data, the volume of the global AI market in 2025 amounted to about $254.5 billion, according to Statista.
Alexey Zhabin
