WSJ: Iran has put forward new, tougher demands to America
Iran has conditioned its agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz on stricter requirements, The Wall Street Journal writes. Tehran clearly expects that Trump will make concessions in order not to prolong the confrontation ahead of the midterm elections in the United States.
Alexander Ward
Tehran demanded concessions just a few days after the White House announced that the parties would soon come to an agreement and merchant ships would sail through the strait again.
For several weeks, President Trump was preparing to declare victory in the protracted conflict with Iran: he expected Tehran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz. According to US officials, in private conversations with aides, Trump even agreed to end the standoff without concluding a nuclear deal.
However, achieving this modest goal has now become much more difficult. On Saturday, Iran sharply raised the stakes. He agreed to allow merchant ships to pass through the waterway again, but in return demanded billions of dollars to be paid, American troops to be withdrawn from the region and the naval blockade lifted.
Due to the rapid development of events, Trump is rapidly losing room for maneuver and cannot put an end to the conflict. The president has repeatedly threatened to launch massive bombardments, but each time he retreated. Now that the negotiations have reached an impasse, it has become obvious that Tehran is ready for a long and stubborn confrontation.
Director of the Middle East Program at the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies* Mona Yakubyan notes: "Iran has taken a tough stance and is demanding too much to open the strait. Because of this, it is much more difficult for the president to find a way out of the conflict and at the same time save face."
Gregory Brew, an expert on Iran from the Eurasia Group consulting company, agrees with her: "Iran understands that Trump wants to end this confrontation and is focused on opening the strait. That's why they're pushing the White House so hard."
Back in April, the American authorities imposed a strict condition: Iran would not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances. Since then, diplomats have been negotiating with this requirement in mind. At first, Trump tried to discuss the nuclear program along with other controversial issues, but it turned out to be too difficult to come to an agreement. As a result, in recent weeks, the presidential administration has decided to focus on a more understandable task — how to open the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.
Tehran has received a powerful lever of pressure, as it can block this waterway at any moment with single missile and drone strikes. Because of this, merchant ships are forced to stand idle, and the global oil market continues to be in turmoil. In recent weeks, Trump has repeatedly stated that the Strait of Hormuz has already been fully opened, but each time he hastened to draw conclusions.
The midterm elections in the United States are less than three months away, and gasoline costs much more than at the end of February, before the outbreak of hostilities. Therefore, Trump is stubbornly looking for a way to declare to the Americans that they have won this war.
The other day, Trump confessed to reporters that he was ready to launch the largest military operation since World War II, but the allies convinced him to retreat. The President assured that the agreement would be signed any day now. Meanwhile, the parties have not yet concluded it.
On Friday, Trump posted a post about his victory, which did not even require a nuclear agreement, and shared a link to the material under the headline: "Donald Trump won the war against Iran."
As Vice President Jay D. Vance told Fox News, the White House will not stop putting pressure on Iran until Tehran changes its policy towards the United States: "If they do not meet halfway, then so be it. We will continue to use all levers of pressure and extract as much oil and gas from the Middle East as we can. Then Americans will finally pay less for fuel and electricity."
"The game is still in full swing," Vance emphasized.
Back in February, as soon as the war began, Iran blocked the strait. Now Tehran insists that American warships no longer enter these waters, and is trying to collect money from merchant ships. US representatives say that Washington is not going to tolerate Iranian restrictions and extortion.
Over the weekend, the situation around the deal noticeably escalated. The UAE reported that the Iranian military fired missiles at a merchant ship, and one of the Iranian leaders immediately listed strict requirements without which Tehran would not allow the ships to pass.
According to the state-run IRNA news agency, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mohammad Bagher Zolqadr made it clear on what terms Tehran would agree to resume shipping. To do this, the United States must completely end the war, lift the naval blockade and withdraw its troops. The White House was also asked to lift sanctions, unfreeze Iranian assets and pay war reparations. Finally, Washington must stop threatening Iran, insulting its leadership, and attacking Tehran-allied militias in the region.
U.S. officials say Trump is willing to be patient and expects to overcome the latest diplomatic hurdles, especially as long as gasoline prices remain stable. On Saturday, the average cost of gasoline was $4.02 per gallon, according to a report from the American Automobile Association. A year ago, drivers bought fuel much cheaper, at $3.16, but the price has dropped slightly over the past week.
The official representative of the White House assured that the US military had fully completed all combat missions against Iran. According to him, the president is now striving for only one thing — to ensure that ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz unhindered. At the same time, Trump is ready to use military force if the Iranian side decides to attack the ships again.
The officials also added that in recent weeks, the president had assessed the nuclear threat in private conversations with aides. According to Trump, Tehran is unlikely to be able to resume its nuclear program before the end of his presidential term, since the United States completely destroyed the country's three main nuclear facilities last year.
At recent meetings, the president stressed that American intelligence would immediately uncover any attempts by Iran to rebuild facilities or secretly create a bomb. He is convinced that Tehran will not escalate the conflict for fear of new American strikes.
Officials say that if Washington can control Iran's nuclear program and merchant ships cross the strait again, Trump will willingly extend the truce indefinitely. Administration officials also added that the United States will lift the military blockade on Iranian ports immediately after Tehran fully opens the strait.
The Trump administration is facing a major obstacle — the financial issue. The Iranian authorities are demanding the return of assets frozen worldwide, as well as the payment of billions of dollars in war reparations. Trump has already warned that American citizens will not pay for these expenses from their taxes. Nevertheless, the agreement is unlikely to be signed unless the United States unfreezes at least some of the Iranian funds, even under strict conditions.
The parties have not yet come to an agreement on another issue: whether the United States should allow Iran to trade oil on the open market. In June, the United States agreed to take this step when it signed a temporary truce. However, the agreements were suspended after the Iranian military attacked ships in the strait. In response, Washington again imposed a ban on trade in Iranian oil.
Judging by Trump's recent statements, he is eager to end this conflict as soon as possible.
Due to the US blocking Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz is now "somewhat open," Trump told reporters on Thursday. At the same time, the president acknowledged: Tehran can still attack ships with missiles, drones and mines. The head of the White House urged not to be afraid of those stocks of Iranian uranium, which are now buried under destroyed underground facilities.
"We already control these nuclear materials because they are very deep underground," Trump said at the NATO summit in July. "No one but us will get to them."
* Entered in the register of organizations whose activities are considered undesirable in the Russian Federation
