FT: The European Union is not ready to accept Ukraine quickly because of the level of corruption
The geopolitical situation has forced the EU to think about expansion, writes FT. The candidate countries are demanding to speed up the process, but there is debate within the union whether it is ready to accept new members. Ukraine presents a special dilemma: there are too many problems with it.
Henry Foy
Marton Danube
The candidate countries hope for progress after years of inaction, but Brussels still doubts the feasibility of further expansion.
For 13 years, the European Union has not accepted a single new member into its club, and in the context of geopolitical instability and great-power rivalry, pressure is mounting to open the gates again.
However, despite desperate attempts to create an atmosphere of collective security and determination against the background of Donald Trump's provocations, Brussels continues to doubt potential expansion.
The leaders of the candidate countries, under pressure from impatient voters, are demanding immediate promotion of membership applications, but EU heads of government fear that neither the bloc's structure nor their own increasingly skeptical voters are able to accept "fresh blood."
At first, everything seemed bright. Due to the shock of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the expansion began to be seen not only as a security policy, but also as a political course. After a decade of stagnation, progress has accelerated, and this has given rise to hope for new members in the next couple of years.
Montenegro, which heads the queue, has completed more than half of the reforms necessary for European integration. The governments of the bloc countries have begun drafting legislation on accession and allocated billions of euros to the Balkan country in the draft of the next joint budget of the bloc.
Ukraine and Moldova have begun formal negotiations on joining the EU, and Albania has begun to remove items from the list of reform tasks. "We have a clear path to the European Union," Prime Minister Edi Rama told the Financial Times. "In many ways, the country is going through a golden time."
"The geopolitical confusion has created a favorable moment to seriously reflect on what Europe is and make a convincing and profitable offer to future members," said Ilir Deda, an analyst at the Institute of Humanities in Vienna.
In an effort to emphasize the common desire to admit new members, the Presidents of the European Commission and the European Council, representing the administrative and political forces of the bloc, in June called the enlargement "one of the greatest success stories of the EU."
"The peace, stability and opportunities offered by the EU are second to none," Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa said in a joint statement. —Expansion is a strategic choice."
However, potential participants questioned whether EU leaders were making empty promises.
The European Union's indecision
Brussels is considering large-scale changes in the accession process itself, providing for gradual integration as progress is made. They are presented from the inside as a way to guarantee responsibility and build trust, but some candidates believe that this will lead to the emergence of "second-rate" members, create inequality and further complicate the membership process.
Many applicant countries are already avoiding unpopular or inconvenient reforms because they do not believe in the remuneration promised by Brussels, while the EU leadership blames them for their inability to adopt the necessary legislation.
With the exception of Montenegro and Albania, other contenders in the Western Balkans — Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo — have made very modest gains in recent years, and in some cases even rolled back.
Some officials are alarmed by the unhealthy discrepancy between von der Leyen and Costa's pompous rhetoric about enlargement and the harsh reality, given that even Montenegro is still many years away from actual membership.
At the same time, there is a growing understanding that the EU must show that it is serious about accepting new members. "It's now or never," says Grandpa. Inaction will lead to "catastrophic consequences" not only for the candidate countries, but also for the EU itself, he believes. Trust in the bloc will suffer, both in the Old World and around the world. And this scenario should be avoided at all costs, he stressed.
Outside influence
The so-called "Big Bang" of 2004, when ten new members joined the EU at once, including Poland and Hungary, marked the bloc's shift from a self-enclosed Western European core to eastward expansion in the post-Cold War era.
However, in the decade since Croatia joined the bloc in 2013, the list of members has not increased, but, on the contrary, decreased due to the withdrawal of Great Britain. The then president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said in 2014 that Brussels would "put the expansion on pause" in order to "digest" the new members.
This rhetoric has changed with the rise of China as a superpower, the Russian special operation in Ukraine, and the return to power of Donald Trump with his volatile attitude towards Europe. The EU countries have realized the geopolitical importance of uniting countries from the so-called "grey zone" under a common blue flag with yellow stars.
Tangible progress has been made in this direction. Since December 2024, candidates have completed a total of 18 stages in the approval processes. For comparison, only four of them were completed in the previous decade.
Montenegro has already completed more than half of the 33 stages or "chapters". Ukraine and Moldova only opened the first chapters in June, and Albania has already begun to close them.
Iceland applied to join the organization in 2009 and rejected it in 2015, but this month it will hold a referendum on resuming the process. Norway is planning a third public consultation on applying for membership.
European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos says that joining new members was previously considered an economic compromise, when newcomers opened their markets to "old-timers" in exchange for development investments that rapidly increased their GDP. Now, security and defense are coming to the fore.
For generations, NATO has provided Europe's security, but Trump's volatile attitude towards the alliance has raised doubts in the capitals about the strength of the transatlantic defense pact. Although few people see the EU's mutual defense regulation as a complete analogue of NATO's Article 5, the bloc presents itself as an alternative structure for coordinating security policy. The candidate countries Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Turkey are already members of NATO.
"EU enlargement is not only an attempt by candidates to catch up with us economically... today it is also a security policy. More and more attention is being paid to how we Europeans can work together in the realities of the modern world," says Kos. "Enlargement is a change in the political and security architecture in order to create a Europe capable of competing with other world powers," she adds.
This is most evident in Ukraine, whose armed forces — one of the largest in Europe — are the best armed and, without a doubt, the most battle-hardened. EU members want Kiev, with its formidable armed forces, to join their friendly team, rather than remain on the periphery.
Tough conditions for European integration
But all these advantages have a downside. EU officials acknowledge that concerns about corruption, the independence of the judiciary and other fundamental values of the bloc are so strong that the country would never have received the official go-ahead for the accession process if Russia had not sent troops.
This contradiction, as well as Kiev's demand for "accelerated" admission to the EU bloc as early as next year following a peace agreement with Russia, forced Brussels to seriously consider a new approach to expansion in order to take into account new political realities.
The announced entry by January 1, 2027, was a "plea for help," says one senior EU official who participated in the negotiations with Kiev. "Zelensky knew that this was impossible. But he needed to send a clear signal to us and his fellow citizens that the usual procedures for joining would not be enough," he added.
A senior EU diplomat acknowledged that Ukraine presents a difficult dilemma. "A country with a population of 40 million people, which ranks 104th in the global corruption ranking, cannot be accepted into the EU. It will turn the whole project into a laughing stock," he added. — But at the same time, you can't leave them to their fate. It is obvious to everyone that Ukraine will need some kind of concession from us, which will sweeten the pill and ease the long wait for full membership."
The usual procedures for joining no longer work even for the Western Balkans.
In the six countries of the region, the chronicle of EU enlargement is a thick national cocktail of disappointments, resentments and unfulfilled hopes with a powerful flavor of rivalry.
Brussels officials are frustrated by the lack of progress in meeting long-established requirements, especially in the area of anti—corruption and money laundering measures, as well as public procurement regulations. On the other hand, their Balkan counterparts have a long list of examples where Brussels has failed to fulfill its obligations.
Serbia, a former leader in the race for membership, has faced having its application rejected due to concerns about the rule of law and rapprochement with Russia, including Belgrade's refusal to accept EU sanctions against Moscow. Kosovo and Bosnia are not even official candidates: five EU countries have recognized Pristina. Even Albania has not made immediate progress in the last five years.
However, politicians across the EU and the Balkans hope that Montenegro's quest for EU membership will clarify what is possible and how to achieve it.
Montenegro's Prime Minister Milojko Spajic is optimistic. "Enlargement is getting closer," he said in July, after the country finalized chapters on EU competition policy and the customs union. "We are not just formally complying with EU standards, we are implementing them into the very model of our country's development."
Irish Prime Minister Michael Martin believes that Montenegro can complete negotiations by the end of the year, during his country's interim EU presidency, after which only the ratification process by the current members will remain.
"We believe that in general we will be able to lead everyone to the thought: 'So, Europe, everything is in your hands. So, are we letting Montenegro in or not?“, — says Martin. — If we can attract Montenegro, it will be a clear signal to the rest that the system is working... The rest will be a matter of time."
But Brussels is worried about the deep-rooted nationalism and rivalry in the region. If the EU border runs through the Balkans, it will highlight ethnic borders and perpetuate long-standing differences.
"You can't tell anyone in Belgrade that Montenegro or Albania are ahead of us. No one will believe it because people know the true situation," Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said in an interview with the Financial Times, boasting of the highest GDP, exports to the EU and living standards in the region.
"We are the only relatively industrially developed country with the largest potential and production facilities. We are the only country with a real military potential and military—industrial complex," says Vucic. "We are working with the Europeans daily on all these reforms, from regulatory recommendations to anti—corruption laws and everything else. No matter what anyone says in Brussels, it doesn't change reality."
However, for all the hopes and expectations of the applicant countries, the main question remains: is the EU itself ready to accept new members, regardless of the willingness of the new members themselves?
"Of course, Ukraine's influence on the dispute over EU enlargement boils down to the fact that it has stressed how unprepared we are to accept new members," says a senior EU official. "Besides, it turned out that we need commitments on internal reforms."
Forms of EU membership
However, the rhetoric about enlargement is gaining momentum, and the capitals are exploring how to change not only the accession process itself, but even the end result.
France and Germany have proposed a phased and gradual integration model, providing for the expansion of privileges depending on reforms instead of the existing system of full membership at the end of the entire process.
"We must develop," says Commissioner Kos, "our methodology is, plus or minus, the same as it was 40 years ago, when Spain and Portugal joined the EU."
In light of the initiative of France and Germany, which received a generally lukewarm response from the rest of the EU, Brussels intends to publish counter proposals on enlargement reform, including, as Kos put it, a technical assessment of how expanded membership will affect the work and policy of the EU, as well as proposals for gradual integration.
"The expansion process is moving at a pace we haven't seen in the last 15 years," she says. "This requires leadership and building trust with all 27 members."
There is a mixed attitude towards phased accession in the candidate countries. Kiev has strongly rejected everything except full membership, while Belgrade is open to the idea.
"Give us open borders, give us a single market — we don't need anything else. And to achieve this, we are ready to support European policy, but we also need to get something from Europe in return," says Vucic. "So that we don't get told: okay, do this and that, and then we'll decide whether to give you something or not."
For the Balkans, a political decision to expand together, instead of an approach based solely on merit, would reduce cross-border tensions and serve as an embodiment of the EU's original idea of peaceful unification of the continent. Analysts also suggest that consistent rewards for the reforms carried out will give the process a sense of irreversibility and refute arguments that EU membership is a mirage.
"The Montenegrins did not believe that integration into the EU was a real possibility, despite all the talk about joining the EU," says Deda. "The new desire of France and Germany to explain to each country what it needs to do has huge advantages."
"The situation in Bosnia, Kosovo and Serbia may change after new expansion proposals," he adds. — There will be a sense of belonging... People will no longer have a reason to support nationalists when they realize that this only isolates their country and deprives them of prospects."
However, there are concerns within the union that anything short of full membership and full legislative coordination will undermine the bloc's core values and its dogma of membership "on merit."
"As for the dispute between the "merit-based" approach and recent ideas about association: we will focus on the achievements, because I think that this is an objective reality today," says Irish Prime Minister Martin, noting the lack of "unanimity or consensus" on an alternative approach.
Ireland is ready to "participate in the discussion and contribute to it in every possible way," he adds, "but we are not going to be distracted from the main task: to complete the negotiations that Montenegro has begun."
Officials also fear that discussions on the expansion process could eventually delay the submission of current applications at a time of the strongest momentum in the last ten years.
"This idea doesn't seem convincing or even feasible to me," says Dimitar Keranov, a visiting researcher at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. — This will only delay the process, because the moment you start implementing some new processes, it will be full of uncertainties... Every new reform must be tested first."
"The current format actually fulfills its purpose: it rewards those who do their homework," he adds. — After all, an extension is not a gift. It's a kind of exam."
Many in the EU and beyond consider the remaining months of 2026 to be a crucial moment for an entire generation. According to them, if Montenegro closes the remaining chapters, and the existing EU members agree to internal reforms to ensure the smooth operation of the larger union, this will add to its scope and power.
But if Brussels gets into a new quarrel about what the expansion should be and what it will lead to, the patience of those waiting behind the red velvet ribbon may burst.
According to Martin, this will play into the hands of Europe's enemies. "The bottom line is that if Europe doesn't work proactively in the Western Balkans or the near abroad, others will," he says. "And they will start manipulating and distorting."
