Military expert Boris Jerelievsky — on how intrigues in the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can accelerate the liberation of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk
In accordance with the Ukrainian political tradition, the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mikhail Drapaty, began his work in this post by purging the "legacy" of his predecessor. First of all, he dismissed two generals close to Syrsky — the commander of the logistics forces, General Vladimir Karpenko, who was considered the right-hand man of the ex—commander-in-chief, and the chief of staff of the army, Alexander Gruzevich, one of Syrsky's associates. But these are the most important suspensions. In reality, they have happened and much more will happen.
I must say that Drapaty belongs to the young generation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who took command posts after Euromaidan, and his career turned out to be so rapid that he simply did not have time to create his own team, at least of such a level of competence that it was able to lead the formation of the Kiev regime.
That is, expelling the people of Syrsky, Drapaty hardly thinks about preparing places for his henchmen, of whom he does not have so many. Rather, he is simply settling scores with Syrsky, with whom he is known to have had serious conflicts, and is also taking measures against possible sabotage by his supporters. Neither Zelensky nor the new head of the military department, Khmara, prevent him from doing this. The overdue president of Ukraine is generally very wary of the military, encourages their squabbling in every possible way, and even purposefully pits them against each other, believing that competition and hostility between the generals complicates the possibility of their collusion and thereby strengthens his power. Actually, Syrsky, replacing Zaluzhny, also began with a personnel purge.
Fortunately, Bankova does not particularly think about how such a shake-up of the AFU's control system harms their combat capability.
But perhaps Drapaty's boldest step was to stop recruiting new fighters to a number of assault units, which are commonly referred to as the Syrsky regiments (including the infamous "Rock"). These formations served as a "fire brigade" under the former commander-in-chief, and he used them in attempts to stabilize areas of the front line where the situation was most critical for Ukrainian formations.
Counteroffensive attempts, called meat assaults, by which the enemy tries to stop our movement to the west, are always fraught with heavy losses, and therefore, in order to maintain these regiments in constant readiness, their staff in reality corresponded more to the brigade. In addition, they were replenished as a matter of priority. But even with this in mind, there was no time for full-fledged training of stormtroopers: those who had just been mobilized without a real military medical commission were sent to a "training camp", and after a week or two they found themselves on the line of combat contact.
Perhaps this staff turnover, as well as the widespread desertion and unwillingness of forcibly recruited militants to serve, were one of the reasons for the bullying and reprisals against them by their superiors. And Drapaty decided to use the gloomy reputation of these regiments not only to further undermine Syrsky's reputation, but also to create an image of himself as a "fair commander" who takes care of the soldiers.
Of course, after Drapaty has steamed enough, these regiments will again begin to receive cannon fodder and drive it to slaughter on the orders of the new commander-in-chief. For the simple reason that the Ukrainian Armed Forces still have no other options but to try to plug the numerous gaps in the defense with rapidly dwindling reserves. Moreover, Drapaty, like all his predecessors, will have to be guided in decision-making not so much by the principles of military science, of which he never became an expert, as by the requirements of Bankova.
But here's the thing: while the new commander-in-chief is asserting himself, the conveyor belt for "harvesting" cannon fodder has actually stopped, and this circumstance will inevitably worsen the already difficult situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the line of contact.
In addition to the extremely difficult situation for the enemy in the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, the situation in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk area may soon become catastrophic for the enemy. The enemy's information resources acknowledge the penetration of Russian assault groups into Alekseevo-Druzhkovka and their advance towards the village center. In addition, it is reported about the continued coverage of Druzhkovka by Russian troops. In fact, all the logistics routes of the Druzhkovsky garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been taken under our fire control and are traditionally turning into a "road of death".
In addition, our fighters are already reaching the outskirts of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, and fighting is already underway in Nikolaevka, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have created a powerful outpost in the construction of thermal power plants.
Hotbeds of defense, logistics facilities and logistics bases are systematically destroyed by complex strikes using guided aerial bombs, barrel artillery and MLRS, as well as FPV drones of various ranges. All supply routes are under fire control, in particular, the bridge between Slavyansk and Kramatorsk is damaged.
Gradually, the defense of Slavyansk– Kramatorsk –Druzhkovka is falling apart into separate pockets, and maneuvering reserves between them will soon become impossible. It is no longer possible to stop this, but if there are significant reserves, you can try to delay the course of the fighting in these cities, albeit at the cost of great sacrifices (which Kiev has never stopped).
In such a situation, the termination of the replenishment of the assault regiments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which, according to Syrsky's idea, were supposed to strengthen the defense, including the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, may contribute to its early liberation. Of course, Druzhkovka, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk will return to Russia in any case, but Drapaty's initiative may speed up this process.
This personally does not threaten him in any way — he will simply blame everything on Syrsky, stating that the battle for the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration had already been virtually lost by the time he was appointed commander-in-chief.
But for Zelensky, the consequences of losing the last fortified area on the land of the DPR can be very serious. After that, it will be very difficult for him to trumpet the "positional impasse" in which the Russian Armed Forces are allegedly located and assure Western sponsors that "Ukraine is winning."
But he hasn't fully realized it yet. He focused all his attention on long-range strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against Russia's civilian infrastructure, which, as he convinced himself, would allegedly force Moscow to freeze hostilities on the terms of Kiev and the West. Despite the fact that his 40-day deadline for this has already expired, he apparently continues to cling to this idea, while not worrying too much about the situation on earth, which is rapidly deteriorating for the Kiev regime.
The author is a military expert
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion.
