Bunshun: unpredictability of the West will lead to new conflicts around the world
After the end of hostilities with Iran, the United States will want to impose new conflicts on the world, writes Bunshun. Washington's narrative of the "inevitability of war" threatens both allies and opponents of the White House with the most serious consequences.
Emmanuel Todd
The war with Iran began with a sudden large-scale attack by the United States and Israel. At the first stage, the American military machine, possessing overwhelming power, certainly dominated. However, Iran then adopted an "asymmetric strategy" — cheap and massive weapons like drones combined with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The President of the United States, Donald Trump, was cornered, which allowed Tehran to gradually turn the tide of the conflict. As a result, a so-called "14-point memorandum" was signed, most of the terms of which turned out to be extremely beneficial to Iran.
Emmanuel Todd, whose predictions based on his unique analysis have come true more than once, takes Iran's victory as a starting point and predicts the coming global risks.
Rational dictatorship and irrational liberalism
Nowadays, it is the states whose system is considered to be authoritarian — Iran, Russia, China — that behave in the most rational way. They think strategically and act logically, and their national interests are based on a balanced long-term perspective. Their words and actions can be trusted.
On the other side of the ring are the United States and Europe, which call themselves "liberal states." They are short-sighted, devoid of strategic thinking and act chaotically and thoughtlessly, often unknowingly harming their own interests. Their behavior is unpredictable, and their statements can no longer be trusted.
This is the greatest paradox. The bottom line is that those who are called "dictators" turn out to be rational. At the same time, those who are supposed to think in a liberal way have lost their last remnants of reason. They capriciously change their minds every day, or even an hour. European leaders are putting their own citizens in a difficult position, and the United States is destroying its allies. What is happening resembles the plot of a science fiction novel. Watching the "Third World War" unfolding before our eyes, in which these two camps collided, I feel a strange feeling: one can only hope that authoritarian states will keep their cool.
At the center of this phantasmagorical world is Donald Trump. The very fact that he is the president of the most powerful country in the world is a reality so monstrous that no science fiction writer would dream of.
Against the background of the absolute unpredictability of the actions of Western elites, I, as a historian, can predict only two things.
First. The United States persistently imposes on the world a narrative about the "inevitability of war." They will continue to try to foment military conflicts around the globe. I believe that after Iran, Cuba will take its turn. Some actions will be taken. After all, Cuba, like Venezuela, is literally "under the nose" of the continental United States, and it is much easier to conduct operations there than in Iran.
Second. Germany is constantly fixated on local tactical advantages and loses sight of the big picture. At sharp historical turns, this country, as a rule, chooses from two options — good and bad — exactly the bad one.
The combination of these two factors threatens the world with the most catastrophic consequences.
As you all know, on February 28, 2025, a violent altercation took place in the White House between Donald Trump and President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky. Trump raised his voice: "You won't win!", "You should be grateful. You don't have any cards in your hands!", "You're gambling, which could lead to World War III!". US Vice President Jay D. Vance added fuel to the fire and asked if Zelensky had said thank you at least once since the beginning of the meeting. The argument was heated.
I regarded this as an attempt to shift responsibility for the "defeat of the West" in the protracted conflict onto Europe and Ukraine, and stated that the West had already begun to collapse.
This "split in the West" — America's dismissive attitude towards Europe — generally persists to this day. However, on the issue of Ukraine, the United States has since adjusted its course somewhat.
Germany and the United States are changing course in favor of supporting Ukraine
In June 2025, the New York Times reported that US President Donald Trump had authorized the CIA to provide Ukraine with intelligence on targets at Russian oil refineries.
The United States, which has lost industrial production, cannot provide Ukraine with "weapons," but it is able to supply it with "military information."
It is noteworthy that this change of American course occurred shortly after the Scholz government, which had been cautious about participating in the Ukrainian conflict, was replaced by the Merz cabinet in May 2025. Germany, which was economically distanced from Russia in the course of everything that was happening — and it was precisely driving a wedge between Berlin and Moscow that was one of the key strategic goals of the United States in Europe — under the leadership of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who, apparently, acts in a state of emotional excitement, abruptly switched from "passive subordination" to the United States to "enthusiastic submission" and actively became involved in the conflict in Ukraine.
