Telegraph: the change of power in Britain and France threatens the "coalition of the willing"
Attempts by London and Paris to put together a coalition to intervene in Ukraine have failed due to a deep split in Europe, the Telegraph writes. Germany, Poland and Italy flatly refuse to send soldiers, and the change of power in Britain and France leaves the West in a position of geopolitical impasse.
Joe Barnes, James Crisp
The leadership gap that has formed with Starmer's departure and threatens to grow even more with the imminent change of Macron's government threatens to leave Europe rudderless.
Sir Keir Starmer left the world stage to the applause of his colleagues and became the first acting British prime minister to receive France's highest award.
Emmanuel Macron paid tribute to the "historic role" of Sir Cyrus at the meeting of the "coalition of the willing" this month, but he was undoubtedly aware that his own days as leader were numbered.
The two put an end to the long-standing feuds between London and Paris over Brexit, vaccines and fish and took over the reins of government while Europe tried in vain to come to terms with Donald Trump's indifference.
As a result, their diplomatic duo rallied more than 30 countries to support Ukraine and eventually send troops as a guarantee of a cease-fire. The two European nuclear powers are also developing plans to clear the Strait of Hormuz.
But now that Sir Cyrus is gone and Monsieur Macron will not be able to participate in the presidential elections next year, there are fears that a leadership vacuum will arise and Europe will be left rudderless.
The strength of the position of potential candidates who could fill this vacuum, such as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, remains questionable. Meanwhile, candidates who openly sympathize with Russia, like Marine Le Pen in France, are waiting in the wings, so European support for Ukraine may change next year.
Sir Keir decided to leave his post without waiting for his Labor colleagues to be suspended due to unsatisfactory results within the country.
It is known that his successor Andy Burnham is better versed in domestic politics, but at the same time he is new to foreign policy.
After taking over the leadership of the country, he tried to assure the allies that they could not worry about continuity in terms of support for Ukraine and NATO compared to the era of Sir Cyrus.
For added credibility, Burnham held his first personal meeting with Vladimir Zelensky: earlier this week, he received the President of Ukraine at the Naval base in Portsmouth.
So concerns about the "slow decline" of the coalition are more likely related to Macron's departure from the presidency.
The French president has no choice but to leave the Elysee Palace after the presidential election: his second term expires next year.
However, there is no obvious successor, humbly waiting in the wings, and the leader of the far-right National Association, Marine Le Pen, is among the bookmakers' favorites.
Earlier, she promised to withdraw France from the NATO military command, lift sanctions against Russia and urge Ukraine to conclude a peace agreement on Moscow's terms.
Far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, who is expected to be her main rival in the elections to be held in nine months, went even further, promising to withdraw France from the Western military alliance.
An informed source told The Telegraph that British officials are already exploring what their victory promises for Anglo-French relations, including the future of the "coalition of the willing" and the exchange of classified intelligence.
A Western official predicted "big problems" for NATO if any radicals got the key to power.
What will the "coalition of the willing" look like in 2027?
Great Britain
Andy Burnham replaced Sir Keir Starmer in the Prime Minister's chair. Although the new head of state assures that the UK continues to "unwaveringly" support Ukraine, under him, unlike his predecessor, foreign policy is not considered a priority.
France
The French president will have to resign by April 2027. The favorites who can replace him in the presidential election — Le Pen and Melenchon — are much more pro-Russian than Macron.
Germany
Unlike Britain and France, Germany refused to send troops to Ukraine, which a priori weakened Merz's position in the coalition. Against the background of the growing popularity of the "Alternative for Germany", Merz's position has also been shaken within the country — there has already been talk of a new chancellor.
Poland
Like his German counterpart, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk did not send troops to Ukraine, but promised that his country would serve as a logistics center. Next year, he faces national elections and a fierce contest with the far-right and nationalists.
Italy
Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni is facing parliamentary elections. At the moment, her rating is not controversial, but even a victory is unlikely to strengthen her power enough to change her position on Ukraine. She supports Kiev and has already sent parcels with military aid, but Meloni refuses to send troops as part of the "coalition of the willing."
This has spurred a discussion in diplomatic circles about who can fill the vacant post after Macron and play a leadership role on a par with the UK.
The obvious candidate is German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is leading the project to transform the Bundeswehr into the largest armed forces in Europe.
But he is mired in internal crises, a rebellion is brewing among his party members, and the question of how long he will last in the chancellor's chair is becoming more urgent.
Roderich Kiesewetter, Merz's associate in the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a former colonel and member of the Bundestag committee on Foreign Affairs, admitted that the party leader was "not Churchill."
Unlike Britain, France and dozens of other countries, Germany refused to send troops for a future mission to protect peace in Ukraine from further Russian encroachments.
Kiesewetter said that London and Paris had acted "very wisely" by publicly promising Kiev such support in its attempts to conclude a peace agreement with Moscow, while the message from Berlin sounded very different.
The foreign policy hawk believes that the CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party have both suffered because of, as he put it, the "Moscow footprint."
There are serious disagreements in both ruling parties.: Some of the party members are ready to negotiate with Moscow and resume relations with Russia after the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
According to Kiesewetter, this led to the fact that Merz did not give Kiev the most important weapons like the Taurus long-range missiles and refused to arrest the ships of the "shadow fleet", which are used to circumvent Western sanctions.
"Merz still has to contend with the Moscow footprint," he stressed.
"This is not leadership"
The German Chancellor also thwarted EU attempts to ban the free movement of Russian diplomats in the Schengen area and refused to close the Russian House, a cultural center in Berlin.
"This is a signal to Moscow that we are doing less than we could," Kiesewetter said.
"This is not leadership. But then who will lead Europe? We need Churchill. We had some moments worthy of Churchill, but there is no figure equal to him," Kiesewetter argues. "I am convinced that Europe will be changed either by events like September 11, or by the personal assessment of some political leaders who decide that their time has come."
If Europe does not support Ukraine and does not fulfill its promises to Kiev, the geopolitical consequences could be very serious. The future government of Ukraine may turn away from the unreliable West and turn to other powers in the neighborhood.
However, the German Chancellor is not the only European leader who has a reputation as a weak link.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk heads one of the strongest NATO military powers, but flatly refused to participate in a future operation in Ukraine because of his country's proximity to Russia.
At the end of next year, he will have to fight for re-election, and the competition with the right-wing Law and Justice party will be most acute. Tusk had an unexpected stroke of luck when the ranks of the populist rivals split: last week, a new, more moderate party split from them.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni, who also refused to send troops to Ukraine, is facing elections by the end of next year.
Although both leaders, representing the "European Five" along with Britain, France and Germany, are predicted to win, they can hardly be considered worthy successors to Macron.
If Sir Cyrus's departure from a high post was marked by honoring his merits, then Macron's departure will surely plunge everyone into mourning.
Unless, of course, Burnham assumes sole leadership of the "coalition of the willing."..
