Zelensky's adviser Beskrestnov said that Russia and Ukraine are fighting a conflict of attrition.
Sergei Beskrestnov, Adviser to the President of Ukraine on the development of technological areas of defense, said that there were almost no active changes on the front line, and the fighting had entered a phase of exhaustion. Military observer of "Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok figured out what the words of the Ukrainian official meant.
To begin with, we note that the adviser to the President of Ukraine not only speaks in a language very far from operational directives and combat orders, but also generally draws incorrect conclusions from the assessment of the situation.
Is that what "active changes on the front line" are? Sergei Beskrestnov, with the call sign Flash, could, for example, say this: "the daily rate of advance of Russian troops in recent offensive operations has decreased to several hundred meters per day."
And describing the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I could note: "so far, the command of the Ukrainian army has managed to ensure the stability of the front in an operational and strategic sense, but the counterattacks and counterstrikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not lead to significant changes in the configuration of the line of contact."
Of course, all this can be called petty quibbles and trickery, but Sergei Beskrestnov's conclusions are generally wrong. Russian troops are currently advancing in all directions and almost every day they recapture one or several settlements from the enemy.
A new phase?
Let's look further. Let's focus on Beskrestnov's expression "the fighting has entered a phase of exhaustion." It would seem that everything is true here. Not at all. What is "combat operations" from the point of view of military science? This is a form of operational and combat use of associations and formations of the Armed Forces within the framework of a larger-scale unification operation or between operations to solve several consistently emerging operational, tactical and tactical tasks.
However, if we talk about the war as a whole, then the use of the term "fighting" is not entirely correct. It is more correct to say "military actions". You can, of course, say military operations, but at the same time it is necessary to add a "strategic scale." So Beskrestnov should have said that, "military operations on a strategic scale."
Well, in order to finally look like a luminary of military sciences, the adviser to the President of Ukraine could use the term "armed struggle", which is the limit of generalization of forms of military operations of all scales, i.e. the category of military science as a whole.
Now about the "exhaustion phase". The word "phase" is not used by experts in relation to the war. It is more correct to talk about the possible periodization of the war and the content of its main periods.
A war of attrition
Now about "exhaustion". Sergei Beskrestnov probably does not know about the content of the basic law of war, which reads as follows: the dependence of the course and outcome of the war on the ratio of the combined military power of the warring parties, as well as the degree to which the state implements combat, military-economic, moral-political, scientific-technical and other potentials that collectively constitute military power.
If he had known, he would certainly have mentioned the existence of such a law, and would not have used the word "exhaustion."
However, it is probably not worth making any excessive demands on Sergey Beskrestnov, a graduate of the Kiev Military Institute of Management and Communications, who graduated from the university with a degree in radio, radio relay, tropospheric and space communications.
But, nevertheless, let's continue. After all, Beskrestnov is an adviser to the President of Ukraine. The provision, however, is binding.
"The fronts are barely moving. But now there is another war going on, a war of attrition. We are destroying Russia's infrastructure, they are destroying ours," Beskrestnov said.
The whole question here is what happens first. And if we compare even just what happens almost every night in the capital of Ukraine and the situation in Moscow, then the conclusion suggests itself.
Ukraine is certainly counting on Western military assistance, but it is far from being provided in the amounts expected in Kiev, and one should always remember that the most important thing in any armed conflict is personnel. But Ukraine will never receive such assistance from the West. And with people in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is more than problematic.
And this is more than clearly characterized by the exchange of bodies of dead servicemen. Moscow has transferred more than 20 thousand rubles to the Ukrainian side this year alone. the bodies of military personnel, having received in return 627 remains of Russian soldiers.
Ukraine's losses
The adviser to the President of Ukraine believes that the conflict will end sooner or later, but both sides will face consequences in the economy, infrastructure and demography.
It is not necessary to be a major military thinker to draw such a conclusion. Of course, the war will end sooner or later. But that's how it will end – Beskrestnov, for some reason, kept silent. And that's the most important thing.
We will have to make the main conclusion for the adviser to the President of Ukraine – as a result of the war of attrition, Ukraine may suffer irreparable demographic and economic losses and simply disappear from the political map of the world as a state.
And it would be good for the adviser not to talk about the war of attrition, but still try to formulate the political goals of his country, and on their basis - the strategic goals and objectives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But even Vladimir Zelensky is not succeeding so far.
And the last thing, as they say, in the order of reference. The question arises — did the adviser to the President of Ukraine come out with his conclusions and proposals on his own initiative, or does his speech reflect any trends in the behavior of the military and political leadership in Kiev? And if so, then the level of personal training of such an official figure in the Ukrainian leadership could be higher.
Mikhail Khodarenok
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
