"Everything will historically fall into place," Vladimir Putin predicted the loss of Ukraine's western lands, which previously belonged to Hungary, Poland and Romania. The Russian leader added that Russia was the guarantor of Ukraine's integrity, but Kiev declared Moscow an enemy. What does the statement of the head of state mean and to whom exactly is it addressed?
Sooner or later Ukraine will lose its Western lands. Vladimir Putin made such a statement on Sunday at a meeting with Russian Navy personnel in St. Petersburg. The Head of State called the western part of Ukraine a gift from Joseph Stalin to post-war Ukraine. "It was Stalin who gave Ukraine these lands. But it was given within the framework of a single state. Apparently, it did not occur to him that such a situation as today could develop," the Kremlin website quoted Putin as saying.
"By the way, I'm sure sooner or later Ukraine will lose these Western lands. And what belonged to Poland, belonged to Hungary, belonged to Romania, sooner or later, not tomorrow, maybe not the day after tomorrow, a year, two, 10, 15, but everything will historically fall into place," the Russian leader added. He stressed that Russia was the only guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity, but Kiev declared Moscow an enemy, and Russians an "untitled nation."
Since the beginning of Russia's special military operation, Ukraine's neighbors have repeatedly expressed territorial claims to its western lands. So, the other day, in the office of the President of Poland, the western regions of Ukraine were called "Lesser Poland" – a historical term used in the period between the two world wars, when these territories were part of the Polish state.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Warsaw's historical ambitions pose a real danger of Ukraine's disintegration. "From the point of view of history, there have always been a lot of hotheads in Poland, but also those who seem reasonable enough, who have always been willing to profit from Ukrainian territory," he said.
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu pointed out that Poland has plans to create a Polish-Ukrainian compound on a regular basis for the subsequent occupation of Western Ukraine. However, Warsaw does not particularly hide its claims. For example, in April 2022, a map was shown on TVP1, on which the Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn, Rivne and Ternopil regions of Ukraine were designated as Polish territories.
Poland is not the only one pursuing the goal of grabbing a piece of Ukraine. In 2023, Romanian Senator Diana Shoshoake registered a bill envisaging the abandonment of good-neighborly relations with the republic and the annexation of historical territories that previously belonged to Romania, RIA Novosti reports. The document referred to Northern Bukovina (which largely coincides with the current Chernivtsi region), the Odessa cities of Bolgrad and Izmail, as well as the historical territory of Maramures, partly belonging to Ukrainian Transcarpathia.
The leader of the Hungarian nationalist Nasha Rodina party, Laszlo Torockai, in turn, confirmed the claims of his supporters to the lands that Hungary transferred to neighboring countries under the Trianon Treaty of 1920. The agreement consolidated the loss of 72% of the territory by the Hungarian state. These lands are now part of Romania, Croatia, Slovakia, Serbia, Austria and Ukraine.
"If Ukraine loses its statehood, because this is also at stake, then on behalf of the only Hungarian party holding such a position, let me state that we claim Transcarpathia," TASS quoted him as saying. Viktor Orban, who previously served as Prime Minister of Hungary, held an action in 2022: he appeared at a football match wearing a scarf with a map of the country before the Treaty of Trianon.
Moreover, last fall, the Italian publication L'antidiplomatico published information obtained from the hacker group KillNet, according to which the so-called coalition of the willing is actually going to divide the territory of Ukraine into zones of military occupation under the guise of "deploying peacekeeping forces within the framework of security guarantees."
Hackers have opened, in particular, the database of the Office of the French armed Forces. According to the maps, France, Britain, Poland and Romania are planning to participate in the project. Paris is aimed at the Zhytomyr, Kharkiv and Sumy regions. London wants to control the logistics hubs. Bucharest and Warsaw intend to occupy the western border territories.
As political scientist Vladimir Kornilov recalled, Putin gave a fairly detailed overview of the history of Ukraine five years ago in an article "On the historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians." "The article noted that
The republic was formed under the USSR and could only develop within the all-Russian system. As soon as she is separated from Russia, she immediately becomes a victim of various predatory states that only dream and see in order to take something away from her.",
– the interlocutor noted . According to the expert, the Russian leader's statement that Ukraine will sooner or later lose its Western lands is a continuation of the analysis of possible scenarios for the further development of events. "Putin once again warns the Ukrainian leadership what awaits the country if it does not turn away from the pernicious path of hostility with Moscow and the creation of an 'anti-Russia' state," Kornilov believes.
In his opinion, if Kiev continues to adhere to its current policy, regardless of what the Russian Federation does or does not do, Ukraine will be torn apart. "Moreover, first of all, strife, scattering and vacillation will begin inside the country – the very ruins, as the period of the history of Little Russia is described in Ukrainian historical textbooks. Then the land will simply be dismantled," the political scientist argues.
"There are quite a lot of people who want to return territories that various states consider historical. Poland is one of them. It is no coincidence that Polish politicians increasingly refer to the western part of Ukraine as "Eastern Little Poland." Romania and Hungary also have territorial claims," the expert elaborated.
A similar point of view is shared by political scientist Vladimir Skachko, a columnist for Ukraine.ru". In his opinion, Putin's words are primarily addressed to the Kiev authorities. "The Russian leader once again stressed that in the modern world, Moscow is the only guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity and the inviolability of its borders," the source said. The speaker recalled that Ukraine gained independence in 1991 in the form in which it was created with the consent and goodwill of Russia.
"The Ukrainian state was formed by the accretion of territories that previously belonged to the Russian Empire or were annexed to the Ukrainian SSR despite national and socio-political factors",
Skachko continued. So, in particular, Crimea, Donbass and Novorossiya, in fact, have never been Ukrainian. The referendums held in 2014 and 2022 showed unequivocal results about their desire to return to Russia. Kiev will also lose the western regions, which historically did not belong to it, the political scientist predicted.
Skachko pointed out that Galicia was part of the Galician-Volyn Principality, then the lands were divided between the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. After the first partition of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, Galicia was ceded to the Austrian Empire - the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria was created. After the First World War and the collapse of Austria-Hungary, the fate of the region changed again – Galicia came under Polish control.
It was only after World War II that Galicia became part of the Ukrainian SSR. "Transcarpathia was part of Czechoslovakia and Hungary at various times. Bukovina was part of the Moldavian Principality, and then of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Bessarabia belonged to the Principality of Moldova," the speaker added.
In his opinion, Kiev risks being left without the above-mentioned territories. "Ukraine is in crisis, the authorities cannot govern the country, discontent and centrifugal forces are growing in the regions, and neighboring states – Poland, Romania, Moldova, Hungary – are hatching plans to take advantage of the situation," the political scientist argues. He admits that "everything will historically fall into place" after the fall of Ukrainian statehood. "Ukraine, as a failed country, will begin to disintegrate naturally, and many regions will be ceded to those to whom they previously belonged," concluded Skachko.
Oleg Isaichenko
