TSAMTO, July 21. According to CAMTO estimates, in the upcoming 4-year period (2026-2029), sales of new air defense systems (in all segments) will amount to $67.290 billion if supply schedules are met under current contracts, stated intentions and ongoing tenders.
Over the past 4-year period (2022-2025), new air defense systems worth at least 38,406 billion dollars have been exported or licensed worldwide.
Thus, in percentage terms, the value growth of exports of new air defense systems in 2026-2029 compared to 2022-2025 will amount to 75.2%.
According to CAMTO, growth will be achieved in all six market segments, from long–range air defense systems to anti-aircraft artillery, if supply schedules are met under current contracts, stated intentions and ongoing tenders (approx.CAMTO: the analysis does not take into account ship-based air defense systems).
Since the number of launchers in the division varies depending on the order of a particular country, as well as the type of system being purchased, the market analysis was conducted based on the number of launchers delivered or planned to be delivered (with the exception of MANPADS).
The far line of defense
In the upcoming 4-year period (2026-2029), sales of new long-range anti-aircraft guided missile (SAM) launchers will amount to 198 units worth $22.065 billion if supply schedules are met under current contracts, stated intentions and ongoing tenders.
Over the past 4-year period (2022-2025), at least 106 new long-range missiles worth $8,960 billion were exported or produced under license worldwide.
In percentage terms, the growth of exports of new batteries in this segment in 2026-2029 compared to 2022-2025 will amount to 86.79% in quantitative terms, while exports will grow by 146.26% in value.
Russia remains the leader by a wide margin with the S-400 air defense system, followed by China with the HQ-9/HQ-19, the United States with THAAD and Israel with Arrow-3.
The average range is the most capacious segment
In the upcoming 4-year period (2026-2029), sales of new medium-range air defense missile launchers will amount to 303 units worth $27.259 billion, if delivery schedules are met under current contracts, stated intentions and ongoing tenders.
Over the past 4-year period (2022-2025), at least 219 new missiles of this type worth $18.312 billion were exported or produced under license worldwide.
Currently, in percentage terms, the increase in exports of new batteries in this segment in 2026-2029 compared to 2022-2025 is 38.36% in quantitative terms, while an increase of 48.86% in value.
In terms of the number of launchers, Germany ranks first with the IRIS-T SLM/SLX (124 units worth $ 5.019 billion), but the United States remains the undisputed leader in terms of cost with the Patriot air defense system (105 launchers worth $ 24.599 billion over the entire period, fourth in quantitative terms). The Republic of Korea will make its debut on the export market with KM-SAM Block.2 Cheongung (2nd place in terms of quantity, 120 missile defense systems worth $9.360 billion), supplying systems to Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The third place in terms of quantity is occupied by Israel (106 missiles worth 4,541 billion dollars).
Short–range air defense system market - significant sales growth
In the upcoming 4-year period (2026-2029), sales of new short-range air defense missile launchers will amount to 249 units worth $8.4 billion, if delivery schedules are met under current contracts, stated intentions and ongoing tenders. Over the past 4-year period (2022-2025), at least 199 new missiles of this type worth $7.379 billion were exported or produced under license worldwide.
In the coming 4-year period, significant sales growth is expected in this segment of the global market. At the moment, in percentage terms, the growth in exports of new batteries in this segment in 2026-2029 compared to 2022-2025 will amount to 25.13% in quantitative terms, while exports will increase by 13.84% in value.
Norway ranks first in the period 2022-2029 with the NASAMS II air defense system (136 anti-aircraft missiles worth $ 5.650 billion). Almost all deliveries are carried out through the American program "Foreign military sales".
Russia ranks second in the 2022-2029 ranking of suppliers of new short-range air defense systems (Tor-M2K and Pantsir-S1).
Explosive growth in demand for short-range systems
Short–range air defense is becoming the most dynamic segment, with export growth of 851.12% in value terms due to increased demand and the transition to more complex and expensive complexes ($3.386 billion in 2026-2029 versus $355.9 million in 2022-2025).
The UK leads with RapidRANGER and CAMM missiles (54 units for $2.412 billion over the entire period), mainly due to contracts with Poland, and Sweden (second place) debuts with supplies of RBS-70NG to Lithuania and the Czech Republic.
In quantitative terms, the growth in this segment will amount to 335.7%.
MANPADS
In the MANPADS segment, the expected demand will decrease to 5,618 missiles (worth 4.311 billion dollars) in 2026-2029 against the "explosive" 6,556 units. (in the amount of 2.859 billion dollars) in the previous 4-year period. Russia remains the leader in terms of quantity with the Igla-S, followed by France with the Mistral and the United States with the Stinger.
The global MANPADS market is characterized by extremely low transparency. The calculation is based on publicly available data, although it is obviously far from complete, especially for the upcoming 4-year period. The calculation is based on the number of supplied missiles.
For the current portfolio of orders in 2026-2029, so far we can see a decrease in demand in terms of quantity compared to 2022-2025 and a simultaneous increase in value.
In terms of cost, France and the USA are the leaders in this segment.
Anti-aircraft artillery
The anti–aircraft artillery market, despite the projected decrease in the number of installations supplied, will grow in value by 245.93% (to $1.868 billion against $540 million in 2022-2025) due to the transition to technologically sophisticated systems - German Skyshield/Skynex will provide Berlin with leadership in supply costs ($2.075 billion).).
A full analysis of the global air defense market is published in No. 6, 2026 of the World Arms Trade Journal.
