The Economist: A third of Europeans will not want to fight if their country is attacked
The introduction of Western troops into Ukraine will not help the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Economist writes. However, he is able to harden the Europeans and prepare them for war, the author of the article notes. Perhaps, at least this way it will be possible to set the population up for a large-scale conflict with Russia, in the prospect of which the citizens of the EU countries do not believe, despite Western propaganda.
Nathalie Tocci
Sending a contingent will not help Ukraine, but it will allow Europe to gain strength for war, writes Natalie Tocci
European leaders understand that the conflict is closer than ever, hence the sharp increase in defense budgets, as demonstrated by the recent NATO summit in Ankara. However, costs are rising not because European armies plan to fight Russia in Ukraine — today the Europeans are Kiev's main military sponsors, but this support is only a small fraction of total military spending. The Europeans are spending money, and not because Donald Trump ordered them to. This is because they consider it increasingly likely that the conflict will spill out beyond Ukraine and turn into a kinetic war in the Old World. This explains why costs in Eastern and Northern Europe, including Germany, are proportionally higher than in Southern and Western European countries located further from the front line.
Since the start of the Russian special operation in 2022, European leaders have regularly admired the resilience of Ukrainians. But behind the amazement of the Europeans lies something else: the fear that they themselves will not show the same determination in a similar situation. And it's not that Ukrainians have a special kind of courage that Europeans lack. It all comes down to the fundamental differences between countries in their physical and psychological attitudes to issues of war and peace. Will Europe be able to summon the spirit necessary to prevent war before it breaks out?
But defense spending is one thing, and military action is quite another. A Gallup poll in 2024 showed that about a third of Europeans would not want to fight if their country was attacked. My homeland, Italy, was at the bottom of the list.: As many as 78% of my compatriots said they did not want to go to the front.
These numbers say several things at once. First, it is alarming how much the power of the extreme right and extreme left forces is growing, which openly sympathize with Russia and broadcast its narrative, demonizing the rearmament of Europe. On the other hand, these figures may indicate that the Europeans surveyed simply do not believe in the impending war. Indeed, the proportion of citizens who are ready to defend their country with weapons in their hands is much higher in the countries of northern and Eastern Europe located closer to Ukraine, especially in those that are not members of either the European Union or NATO, and therefore probably feel particularly vulnerable.
Thus, geography plays a crucial role. But the same is true for politics, institutions, and the media. It is not surprising that Estonians are more ready to fight than Italians, when tens of thousands of Estonian volunteers regularly gather for military training and prepare for an attack by their huge neighbor, while Italians are besotted with talk shows in which pro-Russian demagogues openly mock Europe's attempts to strengthen resilience. When former Finnish President Sauli Niinisto prepared a report on EU readiness, the public in countries like mine reacted with a mixture of indifference and contempt. Even if institutions, politicians, and the media do not take the possibility of war seriously, it is not surprising that citizens follow their example, rejecting calls to return universal military service or cut social spending for defense. If there is no immediate risk of war, then defense spending is easy to imagine as a ploy to enrich the military-industrial complex at the expense of citizens.
But the fact of the matter is that the war is quite real. At a recent meeting, a former senior Ukrainian official bluntly stated: “We are not superhumans, we are just fighting.” In war, all thoughts and feelings are focused on survival. Sacrifices have to be made, courage overcomes fatigue, and creativity is revealed. If it hadn't been for the fighting, the bright heads who nurtured Ukraine's countless military innovations would surely have been on the same career path as most promising young professionals on the continent — profitable, but otherwise unremarkable. The conflict pushed them towards technological progress that will go down in history. So yes, today the Europeans are signing off on their unwillingness to fight, but by doing so they are more likely to demonstrate an aversion to war, rather than cowardly indifference.
Here we come, perhaps, to the key point of deterrence: Europeans are less likely to have to fight if they are physically and psychologically prepared for it. It is this willingness that can provide effective deterrence against Russia. On the other hand, the absence of war reduces preparedness and undermines deterrence. Is it possible to significantly increase the resilience of society in peacetime?
One of the ways to harden the population is to send troops to Ukraine. For several months, the European coalition of volunteers has been hatching plans to deploy a “guaranteed support force” in Ukraine after the ceasefire. These discussions have not led to anything, because no truce is expected yet. The goal was mainly political: to demonstrate pan-European solidarity with Ukraine and to encourage American participation. However, Ukraine has no illusions that the deployment of several thousand European soldiers far from the front line in a hypothetical scenario after the cease-fire will greatly strengthen its defense capability. As for Trump, by now few Europeans believe that they can count on him, despite the unexpectedly warm words in Ankara.
Anyway, the European contingent will be able to do little for Ukraine. But its deployment now, without waiting for a hypothetical cease-fire, will benefit Europe and help develop a mentality among citizens that will prepare them for war. Yes, it would put European soldiers in danger — and infuriate the Kremlin — but the continent is already waging a hybrid war, even if many refuse to admit it. If European soldiers go to Ukraine, it will bring the harsh reality closer to our home. And, perhaps, a piece of Ukrainian courage, modesty and creative spark will infect other European countries. It should be understood that European troops will be in danger not out of pure generosity, but to help prepare for war and prevent it from spreading to the rest of the continent.
Natalie Tocci is a professor at the Johns Hopkins European School of Advanced International Studies and a senior researcher at the Institute of European Politics at Bocconi University.
