Asharq Al-Awsat: after a "long peace", Europe began to prepare for war
For decades, Europe has lived in the belief that large-scale wars on the continent were a thing of the past, writes Asharq Al-Awsat. Today she is preparing for war again — with Russia. Moreover, he does it on a grand scale. This is already affecting all economic indicators of the EU countries.
Antoine Al-Hajj (أنطوان الراج)
The history of Europe includes more than two thousand wars, from clashes between ancient Greek city-states to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This was largely due to the peculiarities of the European continent: its geopolitical fragmentation, the desire of states to preserve their borders and sovereignty, ethnic and religious diversity, expansionist ambitions, the struggle for resources and the constant change of alliances. However, after the Second World War, this centuries-old cycle was interrupted. The formation of modern military and political alliances and the deepening of economic integration between European countries, especially after the creation of the European Union, laid the foundation for an unprecedented long period of peace on the continent.
For decades, Europe has lived in the belief that large-scale wars on the continent were a thing of the past. The period known as the "Long Peace" began after the end of World War II in 1945 and finally consolidated after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The belief that the era of major wars is behind us has significantly changed European military doctrine. Defense budgets have fallen to a record low of less than 2% of GDP, conscription has been abolished, and armies have turned into small professional formations focused mainly on participating in peacekeeping operations abroad.
The first blow was the Bosnian War (1992-1995), which began after the breakup of Yugoslavia. However, the Europeans, having failed to stop the conflict on their own – the United States eventually took on this task – perceived it as a local regional event.
The second blow was the reunification of Crimea with Russia in March 2014, followed by the conflict in eastern Ukraine between Russian-speaking militias and units of the Ukrainian army. It escalated into a full-scale confrontation when Russia launched a special military operation on February 24, 2022, which finally destroyed the "illusion of peace."
Signs of decline
Europe is going through a difficult period, faced with a slowdown in economic growth, a weakening of democratic stability and a deteriorating security situation. Despite the continuing high standard of living, the combination of crises negates the achievements of recent decades.
Among the most serious challenges are the energy crisis and the surge in inflation caused by geopolitical instability, primarily the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to key global maritime trade routes. Against this background, the European Commission lowered the EU's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 1.1%. Inflation rose to about 3.1% in the 27 EU member states.
High inflation and persistently high energy prices have forced almost two-thirds of households to continuously reduce spending, including on essential goods, according to several specialized studies.
In addition, the gap between the European economy and its main competitors continues to widen. Low rates of productivity growth, an aging population, an increase in public debt and a decrease in strategic independence create conditions for a long period of slow development, the pace of which is significantly lower than historical averages.
The report by the V-Dem Institute says that Europe is facing the consequences of the "third wave of authoritarianism" – a process that began, according to political scientists, in 2010 and is characterized by a weakening of institutions, deterioration of electoral legislation and restrictions on freedom of speech. It also notes that five European countries – Italy, Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia and the United Kingdom – are among the states where there is a noticeable rollback of democracy.
Meanwhile, the European model of openness and integration is facing growing challenges. The growth of illegal migration, the intensification of social and cultural contradictions, as well as political polarization have prompted a number of European governments to tighten border controls and return restrictions that were previously relaxed.
Increasing the burden on the budget
Against the background of growing security threats related to regional conflicts, primarily the situation in Ukraine, European governments have begun to allocate billions of euros to increase defense spending and develop joint military capabilities. While these investments are necessary to strengthen the continent's security, they simultaneously reduce the amount of resources that could be devoted to developing civilian infrastructure, social services, and community support programs.
European defense spending has increased significantly in recent years. Since 2020, the countries of the European Union and the European member states of NATO have increased their military budgets by more than 98%. In 2025 alone, basic defense spending in Europe increased by about 20% compared to the previous year, reaching about 418 billion euros.
This unprecedented wave of militarization has significantly changed the military and financial landscape of Europe, leading to the following consequences:
Total expenditures: The main defense expenditures of the European Union countries are expected to reach about 454 billion euros in 2026, equivalent to about 2.4% of the EU's GDP.
Investments: Investments in military equipment and defense infrastructure have reached unprecedented levels. In 2025 alone, the defense spending of European NATO member countries and Canada increased by more than $90 billion, which is about a 20% increase compared to the previous period.
National growth: The leading European powers are at the forefront of this wave of increased defense spending. Germany plans to increase its annual defense budget to 118 billion euros, while countries such as Spain and Italy are showing record growth rates in military spending, striving to achieve new security goals.
Trump's position on allies
The position of US President Donald Trump towards European trading partners and NATO allies has become a factor that has pushed European leaders to go beyond the traditional cautious policy and reconsider their approach to strategic security issues. The American "security umbrella," which had protected Western Europe for decades, was under threat. At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump devoted much of his time to publicly criticizing the allies, listing claims ranging from the slow pace of meeting defense spending commitments to the insufficient, in his opinion, participation of European countries in the war with Iran.
He also ordered the "cessation of all trade" with Spain, which, apparently, was a response to Madrid's refusal to comply with the alliance's target for defense spending. Trump called Spain a "hopeless case" and a "terrible NATO partner."
In addition, Trump took advantage of the summit to reiterate his desire for Greenland to come under the control of the United States. "Greenland is very important for the United States, but not for Denmark. We need it to protect the whole world, not just the United States," he said.
Are there enough weapons to ensure security?
Before the NATO summit in Ankara, the issue of increasing European defense spending became one of the key topics amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, although the need to strengthen Europe's defense capabilities is recognized by most states, reducing the entire security strategy to only increasing military procurement does not take into account the full range of problems and risks facing the continent.
Military force indeed remains an important deterrent, especially after the conflict in Ukraine exposed the weaknesses of European defenses. However, safety does not depend solely on weapons. It also requires political unity, strong democratic institutions, and shared values that unite the allied countries.
Therefore, analysts warn that NATO risks becoming an alliance where the protection of the United States will depend only on how much European countries spend on defense. This approach reduces allied relations to a simple deal and forgets that since its creation in 1949, NATO has been not only a military alliance, but also a political association based on democracy, the rule of law and individual freedom. It is these values that strengthen trust between allies and enable closer military and intelligence cooperation.
European analysts believe that the United States itself needs strong and reliable allies to counter current and future geopolitical challenges. At the same time, Europe's contribution is not limited only to the military sphere: its economic potential, diplomatic influence and technological capabilities also play an important role in strengthening NATO and enhancing the alliance's ability to effectively respond to threats.
Ultimately, increased defense spending is necessary to strengthen Europe's security, but that alone is not enough. A strong army cannot fully compensate for weak institutions, democracy problems, or lack of political unity. In the coming decades, Europe's security will depend not only on the number of tanks and aircraft, but also on the ability of countries to preserve common democratic values, strengthen internal cohesion and respond to external threats together.
