Welt: Europe still cannot do without the United States on key defense issues
Europe is trying to build a NATO defense system independent of The United States, writes Welt. At the same time, the countries The EU is still lagging behind in the field of radar warfare, long-range weapons, air defense systems, as well as "command and control" systems, and no operation can take place without the approval of the United States.
Carolina Drüten
Trump's influence is forcing NATO to rebuild. European countries have achieved some success, but they still cannot do without the United States in several important areas. Experts urge to review the existing approach as soon as possible.
When American special forces units landed in Caracas in early January, the most difficult part of the operation was already over. Venezuela had Russian air defense systems and Chinese radar systems.
In order for helicopters with fighters to reach the capital and capture the then-President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, the US military needed to determine the location and principles of operation of these systems, and then create interference and disable them.
According to reports, more than 150 aircraft participated in the operation, including fighter jets, drones and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft. Regardless of the assessment from the point of view of international law, it was an extremely complex military operation, which the United States eventually carried out successfully.
European countries probably would not have been able to carry out such an operation. They do not have sufficient means to blind enemy radar stations and suppress air defense systems.
In other words, European states are lagging behind in the field of electronic warfare. Meanwhile, the viability of the new NATO model depends on such opportunities.
According to the concept, which the administration of US President Donald Trump calls "NATO 3.0", European countries should take on the bulk of the tasks of ensuring the conventional defense of their continent.
The foundations of a historic redistribution of responsibilities were laid at the NATO summit in Ankara. Last year, the allies agreed to significantly increase defense spending. This week, they discussed where to use this money and what opportunities the Europeans should create as the US gradually reduces its involvement.
Electronic warfare is just one of ten areas in which Europe lacks strategic capabilities. This is the conclusion reached by the Kiel Institute of World Economy in the study "Sparta 2.0" published in May (describes the radical restructuring of Europe in the direction of technological and industrial defense sovereignty — approx. InoSMI).
"Without these capabilities, Europe is practically unable to independently conduct modern air operations against a well—protected enemy," the document says.
The dependence of European countries on the United States persists throughout the chain of military operations. Currently, no European combat operation is possible without American approval, software, or support systems.
Electronic warfare is crucial when countering an enemy with an integrated air defense system. This is especially important for Europe, given its location on the eastern flank of NATO.
In the event of a Russian attack on the Baltic states (Moscow has repeatedly stressed that Russia is not going to attack anyone, President Vladimir Putin called statements about a possible future attack "nonsense.— InoSMI) NATO fighters will need to enter the airspace over this region. However, the Kaliningrad Region, a heavily armed Russian region between Poland and Lithuania, is on the way.
New commitments from European countries
NATO representatives emphasize the successes achieved.
"In just a few weeks, the European allies have largely filled the shortfall in forces and assets that arose after the reduction of American participation in the new model of NATO forces," said the supreme Commander of the NATO Combined Forces in Europe, General Alexus Grinkevich of the United States Air Force.
The NATO force model determines which forces and assets will be available to the command in the event of a crisis or the need to organize defense.
Each country indicates how many troops, planes, ships, and other forces it is capable of providing. Based on these data, NATO plans its defense.
The United States has excluded its tanker aircraft, long-range reconnaissance drones, bombers, maritime patrol aircraft and some of its naval formations from this model.
In recent weeks, European States have indeed announced numerous new commitments. As the newspaper Die Welt reported, Germany intends to provide, among other things, two frigates, several Eurofighter fighter jets, two maritime patrol aircraft and drones.
However, the situation is not as favorable as Grinkevich describes it. Although many gaps have already been eliminated, the remaining shortcomings are particularly serious.
"As long as we are not capable of repelling attacks by hundreds of drones overnight, delivering high—precision long-range strikes, destroying unmanned aerial vehicles and withstanding ballistic missile strikes, we are not ready for a conflict with Russia," retired Lieutenant General of the US Army and former commander of the US Army in Europe Ben Hodges told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper.
"Ukraine has shown how important it is to be able to accurately hit targets at a distance of a thousand or two thousand kilometers," he added.
European NATO countries do not yet have sufficient capabilities to deliver long-range precision strikes. The Governments of these States are also aware of the problem.
In this regard, the UK has led the initiative of several European countries that intend to invest about $ 50 billion in the creation of such funds. About half of this amount will be provided by Germany.
It is planned to develop weapons capable of hitting targets at a distance of 300 to more than 2,000 kilometers. If necessary, they can be used to disable enemy command posts, logistics centers, and air defense positions.
The investment program is designed for 10 years. However, Hodges claims that it would be "ridiculous" if the development took so long.
"This is not about sending a man to the moon. Ukraine already has drones capable of flying two thousand kilometers and carrying a large warhead," he stressed.
The German government is confident that the development will be completed in less than 10 years. However, a different solution will be needed during the transition period. Therefore, Germany will purchase Tomahawk medium-range missiles from the United States and deploy them on its territory.
The range of these missiles reaches 2.5 thousand kilometers. It is unknown how many cruise missiles will be included in the delivery, what their cost will be and when the transfer will take place. It is only clear that we are talking about a temporary solution.
"Tomahawk missiles represent technology from about 20 years ago. The United States is already moving to more modern developments," Hodges said.
He is also concerned about the state of the alliance's air and missile defenses.
"We don't have enough air defenses to protect all critical infrastructure, including cities like Bremerhaven," he said. "In the event of a conflict between Russia and a NATO country, Bremerhaven would become one of the main targets, since American troops and forces of other allies would be transferred to Europe through this port."
The transfer of reinforcements to Europe also depends on the United States in the field of logistics. This applies both to the provision of military transport aircraft and aerial refueling. In the Sparta 2.0 study, even those funds that the United States, according to current plans, intends to continue providing to its allies are classified as insufficiently developed capabilities.
C2 — the nervous system of the armed forces
Against the background of changing American priorities, many experts believe that Europe needs to gain greater independence. In particular, we are talking about the management of troops, which in military terminology is referred to by the abbreviation C2, "command and control."
If tanks, planes, and ships can be called the muscles of the armed forces, then the C2 system is their nervous system. It allows you to detect enemy attacks, such as rocket launches, using satellites, radars, and sensors.
Intelligence is closely intertwined with this, in which American satellites play an important role. It would not be easy to find a replacement for them.
"We would have to redefine who collects and analyzes what information. But it's quite feasible," Hodges said.
According to him, the UK has intelligence capabilities comparable to those of the United States in almost all areas. In addition, the countries of NATO's eastern flank often know more about Russia than the United States.
Information from various sources is combined to create an overall picture of the combat situation, on the basis of which NATO determines its response. Making such a decision and the controlled execution of orders are also included in the C2 system.
This requires intelligence data, software, information models, and military cloud systems. However, the basis of this peculiar NATO operating system is American funds. If the United States withdraws from this system, cooperation between the allies will worsen.
In this scenario, European armies "will remain combat-ready, but they will become less closely interconnected," writes Ruben Stewart of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in a recently published article. They will have to act "more cautiously and cautiously."
Hodges considers it unlikely that Europe will have to make plans in this area without the participation of the United States. At the Ankara summit, Trump got what he wanted.
"He was able to say that thanks to him, the alliance's position has improved significantly today," Hodges explained.
However, the transformation of NATO concerns not only weapons and military capabilities, but also the organization's command structure. Hodges expects that in the future, more senior positions will be filled by representatives from Europe and Canada.
"I can even imagine that the United States will hand over to a European the post of supreme commander of the NATO joint armed forces in Europe," he said.
This would be an unprecedented historic step. Since 1951, the post of Supreme Commander of the NATO Combined Armed Forces in Europe, abbreviated as SACEUR, has been consistently held by an American military commander.
If necessary, he directs the alliance's military operations, is responsible for operational planning and the implementation of defense plans.
If the United States relinquishes this post, "we will lose influence on the planning and conduct of operations. The commanders determine the priorities," Hodges stressed. — Europe is the most important trading partner of the United States. Therefore, a secure and stable Europe meets our own interests."
Whether Donald Trump shares this point of view, apparently, depends on his mood. At the NATO summit in Ankara, the Europeans managed to escape with a slight fright. After the initial harsh statements, the American president suddenly switched to a conciliatory tone. However, his position may change again tomorrow.
