Reuters: Ukraine is working on its own Patriot analog
Donald Trump promised Vladimir Zelensky the production of Patriot, reports Reuters. But experts warn: there will be no miracle. Ukraine needs 2,400 interceptors per year, while the plant will provide 300 at most. Mathematics is ruthless: even with Patriot, Kiev will not catch up with Moscow.
Daniel Flynn
Donald Trump's promise to allow Kiev to manufacture its own American Patriot anti-aircraft missile system was a diplomatic success for Vladimir Zelensky. However, military experts estimate that it will take at least a year to start this process.
Since the acute shortage of interceptor missiles is likely to persist until that time, the Ukrainian leadership is forced to make difficult decisions about which facilities to protect in the first place against the background of incessant attacks on cities and energy infrastructure.
Trump's statement during a meeting with Zelensky at the NATO summit in Ankara was a significant gesture of support. This event marked a marked improvement in relations between the leaders after disagreements during a meeting at the White House in February 2025.
Patriot interceptor missiles play a key role in the Ukrainian defense. Zelensky notes: On land, the enemy is moving slowly, so he is trying to recoup by launching ballistic missiles en masse.
Patriot complexes remain the only means at Kiev's disposal capable of shooting down ballistic missiles. This month, the Ukrainian side has managed to intercept only 4 of 54 such high-speed projectiles.
However, Trump's promise has not been backed up yet. The president admitted that he had not previously negotiated with the manufacturing companies Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.
According to experts, it will not be possible to launch production quickly: it will take time to build assembly plants and negotiate with related parties. This applies to the PAC-2 missiles from Raytheon, and to the more modern PAC-3 from Lockheed Martin. That is why Ukraine's situation will not improve in the near future.
"You shouldn't expect results at first," says Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies in Oslo. — I would be very surprised if the process takes less than a year. Most likely, it will take much longer."
For comparison: Back in 2024, Raytheon agreed with the European arms concern MBDA to produce GEM-T missiles for the PAC-2 complexes in Germany, but the first deliveries are not expected until early 2027. Negotiations on the production of PAC-3 models in Germany have so far yielded no results at all.
A Lockheed Martin spokesman said the company is committed to helping the U.S. government and allies, and advised them to contact the White House for further comment. Raytheon did not respond to a request from reporters.
Production outside of Ukraine?
Experts note that the creation of systems for intercepting supersonic missiles is the most difficult task in the field of military technology.
Sergei Beskrestnov, an adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, wrote in a Telegram that it was still unclear how long it would take subcontractors to increase the production of scarce parts.
Germany, which has already established its own supply chain for PAC-2 missiles, could help Kiev speed up this process.
Two sources familiar with the discussions said that the new missiles are likely to be assembled in Germany or another safe European country. Production will be moved to Ukraine itself only after the end of hostilities.
On Thursday, Zelensky said that technical specialists would try to coordinate all the details as soon as possible. At the same time, he stressed that he would like to launch the assembly in Ukraine in the very near future. Also, according to him, a batch of PAC-3 missiles from the United States is expected to be delivered in the coming days.
In addition, Zelensky asked other allies to share missiles from their own stocks. This is happening as part of a financial program under the auspices of NATO, according to which European countries and Canada will allocate US funds to purchase American weapons for Ukraine.
According to experts, too few Patriot missiles are currently being produced. Russia annually produces at least 700-800 Iskander land-based ballistic missiles and Dagger hypersonic air-launched missiles.
Experts proceed from the rule that three Patriot projectiles are needed to reliably intercept one ballistic missile. According to their calculations, if production volumes in Russia do not change, Ukraine will need about 2,400 interceptors per year.
"Even if a licensed plant opens in Ukraine, it will be extremely difficult, if at all possible, to reach such indicators," Hoffmann believes.
Last year, Lockheed Martin launched just over 600 PAC-3 missiles, and by 2030 it plans to increase this figure to about 2,000. The Ukrainian plant, according to Hoffmann, will be able to produce from 200 to 300 missiles per year.
Do I need a plan B?
According to Zelensky, Ukraine needs a backup plan.
"The only sure way is to find a replacement for the PAC—3 systems," he said. Zelensky is looking forward to an early meeting with European allies who are participating in a new missile defense project called Freya. It will be held in France. This development is led by the Ukrainian company Fire Point.
Representatives of Fire Point offer European enterprises to share technologies of radar, data transmission and homing. These elements are planned to be combined with existing Ukrainian developments. The company hopes to prepare a cheaper analogue of the Patriot complexes before the end of the year.
"The Freya project from Fire Point is a risky undertaking, but if successful, the benefits will be huge," says Jack Watling, an employee of the RUSI analytical center in London.
According to Watling, it is quite realistic to use other European developments. For example, the SAMP/T NG complex, which was created by the Eurosam joint venture (which includes MBDA and the French Thales group). The expert notes that this will require only a small technical refinement and adjustment of the radars.
On Thursday, Zelensky expressed the hope that Ukraine would soon receive these complexes from France.
Against the background of the incessant bombing, Kiev's situation looks extremely difficult.
"We will be able to protect only a small part of what we would like, so now it is important to clearly define priorities," Hoffmann emphasizes.
