NYT: The United States is doing everything to destroy its own hegemony
For decades, the world has been waiting in horror for the moment when the United States would destroy the usual global order and turn away from its allies. Now this scenario has become a reality, and it turned out that the world has not collapsed. But the United States itself began to turn into something monstrous.
Stephen Marche
The destruction of the world order is going much more smoothly than expected.
At first, outrage was caused by America's "betrayal", which manifested itself in President Trump's call for the annexation of Canada, threats against Greenland, the imposition of duties on allied goods and the launch of a campaign to undermine the authority of NATO — a campaign that continued at the last summit of the alliance this week in Ankara (Turkey). Now, in some countries that were previously considered allies of the United States, an unusual mood is emerging: optimistic determination. There is an established principle in chess that also applies to geopolitics.: "The threat is stronger than its real incarnation." The very possibility that the United States would abandon the preservation of world order was terrifying. Reality turned out to be a new beginning.
Canada, a neighbor of the United States, was naturally the first to notice this. Since the beginning of Trump's second term, American trade pressure has been fierce. As a result, Canada had to think about what Washington's favor or disfavor was worth. The Bank of Canada recently analyzed a scenario in which the White House would impose a 25 percent duty on all Canadian exports to the United States. Canada's gross domestic product growth would slow by about 2.4 percentage points, which is well within the country's capabilities during the adjustment period. Of course, this is a disaster, but not the end of the world. This is the most pessimistic scenario.
A recent study by economists at the CanadianShield Institute, commissioned by the Gloves Off podcast hosted by the author of this article, found that Canadian exports to the United States declined by more than 30 billion Canadian dollars (21 billion U.S. dollars) last year, or more than 5% of total exports to America.. However, these losses were offset by new demand from the rest of the world, which amounted to almost 29 billion Canadian dollars. When services are taken into account, total exports from Canada increased by almost $7 billion. Washington can threaten you with anything, but if you have aluminum, oil or potassium, someone will definitely buy them.
It's not just about Canada. In 2025, the shares of European companies showed better dynamics than the American ones, and in the first two months of 2026, their exchange rate rose sharply. The European Defense Industry Development Strategy, introduced in 2024, makes it possible to keep most of Europe's rapidly growing military spending on the continent. And after the threat of using the European Union's tool against coercion — the so—called "trade bazooka", which allows retaliatory duties to be imposed as soon as possible - forced Trump to abandon his earlier threats against Greenland, the Europeans now realize that they have their own Strait of Hormuz, that is, a tool that can to force America to make concessions.
American military threats are losing their power. If recent history has taught us anything, it is that when the United States decides to achieve a geopolitical goal through military force, it is safe to assume that this goal will not be achieved. Contrary to all forecasts, during the war with the United States, the corrupt and brutal regime of Iran retained power and is now exempt from sanctions. While the American armed forces are inventing completely new types of weapons, the Persian Gulf countries and their airports during the war against Iran understood exactly what American security guarantees really cost.
At the NATO summit in Ankara, where Trump chastised allies — especially Spain — and again called for the establishment of US control over Greenland, the leaders of Spain and Denmark perceived his remarks as empty threats, which they obviously are. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney may well say that Trump has "won the argument" over the increase in defense spending by NATO member countries. The reason they're spending more now may be because they realize that America's military power is waning. American support, whatever it means now, does not guarantee anything.
It's not just about NATO. Bureaucratic structures that were once sluggish are now taking steps with amazing speed to limit their dependence on both the US government and the companies that serve as strongholds of American power. Since taking office just over a year ago, the Carney government has concluded just over 100 international trade agreements. The European Union has purposefully expanded defense purchases to avoid dependence on the American armed forces. Abandoning American technology will be the most difficult knot to untie, but work is already underway in this direction: the EU switched from Google to the French Qwant as a search engine in its official systems, and Belgium and Finland abandoned Amazon WebServices.
The post—American reality is, of course, not a world without America. As a geopolitical player, the United States has become a kind of sluggish zombie monster that can be scared and forced to perform reflex actions, but which lacks higher functions. Most of the world understands that the next round of elections — be it the midterm elections or the 2028 elections — will not solve anything. Many outside the United States believe that the American people are so divided that no matter who wins, the future will be bleak. They fear that even a sensible Republican or Democratic president will not be able to guarantee a stable American policy or the consistent application of even the vaguest principles in international relations.
"What is America?" — this is no longer an abstract theoretical question. This is a practical problem. The governors of a number of American states are implementing rational political programs. The country's institutions are surviving. Some Americans even continue to adhere to their ideals. But such an education as the United States of America no longer exists as such. There is no America to deal with. The increasingly isolationist United States is no longer the leader of the free world. How is this possible if the country is no longer able to govern itself?
A "zombie America" creates contradictions — at least in the short term. In Canada, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, which works in conjunction with the United States, remains our most important ally. However, Canadian government officials have also begun conducting exercises using drones in case of an asymmetric conflict with the United States. True security is possible only if the country gets out from under American influence as much as possible in all areas.
"The threat is stronger than its real embodiment," is the wisdom of Aron Nimtsovich, a leading figure in chess hypermodernism. This principle applies to chess precisely because all the time and energy you spend trying to figure out how to avoid disaster ends up being worse than the disaster itself. When the worst has already happened, you can focus on gradual improvement rather than prevention. You can act actively instead of remaining passive. In geopolitics, most of the power is just its appearance.
Everyone who believes in freedom, democracy, individual dignity, and the right of peoples to self-determination should seek to undermine the ability of the United States to project its power and put an end to the strange dominance it has established over the world so that we can all move on. So far, no one has helped in this more than the United States itself.
